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Fed 將於 12 月結束 QT:比特幣會重演上次的大幅價格崩盤嗎?

Fed 將於 12 月結束 QT:比特幣會重演上次的大幅價格崩盤嗎?

比特幣在本輪週期中並未以預期的快速速度增長,有些人將此歸咎於美聯儲一直在實行量化緊縮。這指的是中央銀行減少貨幣供應以收回過剩流動性的時期。因此,由於流入比特幣等風險資產的流動性不足,購買力似乎已經下降。然而,隨著美聯儲開始改變立場,這一切可能很快就會改變。量化寬鬆可能帶來更多流動性 在長時間的量化緊縮之後,美聯儲最近的評論表明正在向量化寬鬆轉變。這預計將在12月某個時候發生,並可能在市場準備結束另一年之際引發大規模轉變。顧名思義,量化寬鬆與量化緊縮相反,前者是美聯儲向市場注入流動性。這種流動性的湧入可能導致投資者承擔更多風險,這反過來對比特幣等資產有利,因為投資者長期進入加密貨幣市場。相關閱讀:比特幣價格在本輪週期首次跌破50日均線,為何可能崩盤至38,000美元 量化寬鬆的轉變公告預計將於12月1日發布,自然地,關於其對比特幣價格影響的討論已經展開。加密貨幣分析師和投資者Ted Pillows分享了一張圖表,顯示上一次美聯儲在2019年結束量化緊縮時,比特幣價格曾遭遇明顯崩盤。該帖子暗示,隨著美聯儲在不到兩週內採取行動,這種情況可能會再次發生。然而,另一位加密貨幣分析師反駁了這一觀點,指出2019年發生的情況與2025年正在發生的情況之間的差異。為何這次對比特幣可能不同 在回應Pillows時,化名為Sykodelic的加密貨幣分析師概述了比特幣價格不會隨著量化寬鬆公告而崩盤的首要原因之一是美聯儲在2019年做過頭了。根據該帖子,美聯儲過度實行量化緊縮,導致了2019年的回購危機。相關閱讀:以太坊價格將恢復還是崩盤?投資者應該了解的真正"槓桿點" 然而,這一次,雖然儲備較低,但尚未達到危險領域。此外,分析師解釋說,由於2萬億美元的財政赤字,美國別無選擇,只能通過流動性刺激經濟,否則就有破產的風險。由於比特幣價格已經經歷了重大下跌,達到創紀錄的MACD水平,分析師認為下跌的可能性很低。"如果你押注於一年長的熊市,你基本上是在賭美國會讓自己破產,"分析師說。"美聯儲已經沒有轉向的餘地了。" 特色圖片來自Dall.E,圖表來自TradingView.com
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NewsBTC2025/11/28 19:00
Kripto Firmaları Yapay Zekanın Veri Katmanına Giriyor — Aracı Kurumlar da Aynısını Yapacak mı?

Kripto Firmaları Yapay Zekanın Veri Katmanına Giriyor — Aracı Kurumlar da Aynısını Yapacak mı?

AI 模型開始使用即時金融數據,引發了一場爭奪主要供應商地位的競賽。加密貨幣公司已經取得了早期領先優勢。 Crypto.com 的新服務將其即時市場數據直接發送到 Claude 和 ChatGPT 等 AI 模型中。這是在高風險競賽中成為 AI 生態系統關鍵數據提供者的最新一步。 這一舉措也顯示了加密貨幣世界快速採用與傳統經紀商謹慎方法之間日益擴大的差距。「AI 和加密貨幣的整合才剛剛開始,將真正重塑我們投資和參與商業的方式,」Crypto.com 總裁兼首席運營官 Eric Anziani 表示。「我們很高興在開發由 AI 驅動的加密貨幣工具方面邁出這一重要一步,這些工具正在建立通往金融科技和賦能新時代的橋樑。Crypto.com 的加密市場數據專為當今和未來的交易者而設計。」 MCP 成為 AI 的新興數據層 新生態系統使用模型上下文協議(MCP),這是一個開源標準,使 AI 模型能夠直接連接到外部數據源。以加密貨幣為重點的公司和主要數據提供商已迅速採用它。 創建 Claude 的 Anthropic 已經與 S&P Global 和 FactSet 等數據巨頭合作。在加密貨幣領域,CoinGecko 等數據聚合器和現在的 Crypto.com 已推出官方 MCP 服務器,使自己成為兼容 AI 的便捷數據源。 根據公共 MCP 目錄,已經有數十個專注於金融和投資的 MCP 服務器——涵蓋股票、ETF、加密貨幣、經紀商連接和 XBRL 數據——且該領域正在迅速擴展。 傳統經紀商採取謹慎方法 這種前瞻性策略與傳統外匯和差價合約經紀商的做法大不相同。大多數經紀商正致力於在自己的平台內使用 AI,建立私人聊天機器人和信號生成器,而不是向全球 AI 生態系統開放其主要數據源。但市場並不會等待他們。 開發社區的草根努力正在明確展示對這一功能的需求。對於 Interactive Brokers 和 MetaTrader 等平台,獨立開發者已經在建立自己的非官方 MCP 服務器。這些社區項目充當「中間層」,從經紀商的標準 API 提取數據並將其提供給 AI 代理。 因此,雖然經紀商尚未正式成為這一趨勢的一部分,但他們的用戶和開發者社區已經在創建連接。 從 AI 用戶到 AI 基礎設施提供商 Crypto.com 的舉措使其處於重大轉變的前沿:從僅使用 AI 到成為驅動 AI 的數據關鍵提供者。對於傳統經紀商來說,問題不再是他們是否會加入這場競賽,而是何時加入。他們會引領潮流,還是不得不跟隨自己社區已經創建的道路? 本文由 Tanya Chepkova 在 www.financemagnates.com 撰寫。
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Financemagnates2025/11/28 19:00
Overseas Fund November Performance Chart at a Glance! Gold Funds Reign Supreme Again, Tech Funds at the Bottom

Overseas Fund November Performance Chart at a Glance! Gold Funds Reign Supreme Again, Tech Funds at the Bottom

Since November, the New Taiwan Dollar has depreciated by 1.88% against the US dollar, resulting in exchange rate gains for offshore funds when converted back to TWD. Statistics as of the 27th show that the 961 offshore funds (including equity, bond, balanced, money market, and alternative investments) approved by the Financial Supervisory Commission's Securities and Futures Bureau have risen by an average of 1.75%. Among them, 624 equity funds increased by an average of 1.56%, 55 mixed asset (balanced) funds rose by an average of 1.72%, and 260 bond funds gained an average of 2.16%. Looking at major sector funds, technology funds have fallen by an average of 4.17% since November, placing them at the bottom of the list. Gold, which pulled back in October, rebounded quickly in November, with gold and precious metals equity funds rising by an average of 13.73% for the month and 135.05% year-to-date, leading all fund categories. Biotech equity funds also saw an average increase of 11.09%, continuing to reflect positive developments in clinical trials for new drugs, corporate acquisitions, and the gradual easing of policy headwinds, with more pharmaceutical companies using price reductions to gain exemptions from drug tariffs. Evan Barratt, manager of the Franklin Templeton Biotechnology Discovery Fund, points out four major positive factors for biotech stocks: (1) Favorable valuations: The NBI biotech index's total market capitalization relative to R&D spending is at its lowest level in 15 years; (2) Recent Phase II and III clinical trial success rates have increased; (3) M&A themes: Patent cliff pressure on large pharmaceutical companies, a more friendly regulatory environment, and reduced policy uncertainty are helping to heat up acquisition activities; (4) The integration of AI into various aspects of the industry has significantly improved productivity and return on investment. Stephen Land, manager of the Franklin Gold Fund, believes that trade tensions and de-globalization will lead to more severe inflation. If the situation continues to persist or even escalates, gold may play an important role in the future world. In fact, the willingness to hold other countries' debt and currencies is decreasing worldwide, making gold an alternative. Moreover, gold has a low correlation with other assets, making it an excellent tool for investment diversification. Regarding major regional equity funds, Greater China and Asia (excluding Japan) equity funds recorded losses on average in November, performing poorly mainly due to the drag from AI concept stocks taking a breather. In contrast, funds with less technology exposure, such as Latin American equity funds, rose by an average of 7.01%, primarily reflecting the future interest rate cut theme in high-interest-rate Brazil. US small and mid-cap equity funds and Eastern European equity funds also saw increases of 4.23% and 3.78% respectively. Manraj Sekhon, Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Templeton's Global Investment Team, notes that emerging markets have undergone dramatic structural changes over the past 20 years, with industry focus shifting from raw materials and energy to technology, consumption, and services. Numerous companies have become enterprises driving the global economy. Emerging market central banks have more flexible interest rate and monetary policies, with narrowing interest rate differentials compared to developed markets, while regional reforms focus on improving return on equity. Corporate profits have also begun to recover, with the compound annual growth rate of emerging market corporate profits from 2023 to 2027 estimated to be 12% to 14%, which is expected to drive continued improvement in emerging market equities relative to developed market equities. For major bond and balanced funds, balanced funds generally underperformed bond funds due to the drag from stock market corrections. Among bonds, emerging market local currency bond funds led with a 3.04% increase, followed by US government bond funds with an average increase of 2.6%. Franklin Templeton Investment Consulting points out that December will focus on three major central bank rate meetings: the US Federal Reserve (December 9-10), the European Central Bank (December 18), and the Bank of Japan (December 19). The ECB may maintain rates at low levels, while the BOJ may raise rates again. Investors highly anticipate that the Fed will cut rates again and hope to gain insight into the US economy and monetary easing in the new year through the chairman's press conference, economic outlook, and dot plot. (Source: WinNews) Further Reading: Overseas Fund September Performance at a Glance! Gold Funds Surge 22.7% Again, Taiwan Stock Funds at the Bottom Overseas Fund August Performance at a Glance! Gold Funds Soar 21.9% to Take the Crown, Taiwan Stock Funds Jump 10.7% Overseas Fund October Performance at a Glance! Taiwan Stock Funds Rise Over 10% to Dominate, Gold Funds Fall to the Bottom
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WinNews2025/11/28 18:03
Taiwan Stock Market Rises for 5 Consecutive Days! Stock King Alchip Hits Daily Limit Creating NT$7,315 Record, Foreign Investors Favor ETFs

Taiwan Stock Market Rises for 5 Consecutive Days! Stock King Alchip Hits Daily Limit Creating NT$7,315 Record, Foreign Investors Favor ETFs

US stocks were closed yesterday, but Taiwan stocks still launched an offensive today. As of press time, they rose nearly 200 points, marking five consecutive days of gains. Equally surprising to investors is that stock king Asmedia Technology hit the daily limit today, setting a new Taiwan stock record of NT$7,315. Institutional investors have analyzed foreign capital's net buying actions in ETFs this week, mainly concentrated in income-type products. Among the top 15 net buys, 10 are bond ETFs, especially high-yield bonds and long-term government bonds; for stock ETFs, high dividend ETFs, actively managed ETFs, and real estate ETFs are more popular. These ETFs favored by foreign investors include Yuanta ESG Investment Grade Bond 20+ (00937B), Fuh Hwa FTSE Real Estate (00712), First Securities High Yield Bond (00981B), Cathay 20-Year US Treasury (00687B), and Yuanta 20-Year US Treasury (00679B). Additionally, Yuanta Taiwan Select High Yield (00919) and Active Uni-President Global Innovation (00988A) also made the list. Wang Xinyu, manager of 00981B First Securities High Yield Bond ETF, said that due to New York Fed President Williams' dovish comments on monetary policy, plus the anticipated announcement of the new Federal Reserve chair candidate, market expectations for a US rate cut in December have significantly increased again. Once rates are cut again, it will benefit bond prices, and investors should position themselves early for the rate cut trend. Su Dingyu, fund manager of Cathay Taiwan Technology Leaders (00881), stated that Taiwan's hardware supply chain, IC design, foundry, server assembly, power supply, cooling, and other key components will benefit. With its high coverage of Taiwan's semiconductor and AI server leaders, 00881 not only holds TSMC but also has complete deployments in key stocks like MediaTek, Quanta, and Accton, showing strong potential and industry representation. Su said that Google's TPU uses an ASIC (Application-Specific Integrated Circuit) architecture, specifically optimized for AI computing with specialization and high efficiency; in comparison, GPUs focus on versatility and parallel processing capabilities. The rise of TPUs symbolizes AI computing entering the warring states era of GPUs and ASICs. Su explained that using 00881's important component stocks as examples, in chip design, MediaTek has successfully entered the new blue ocean of ASIC design services with its accumulated technology in high-speed computing and communication chips, becoming a key technical partner for international giants like Google in AI ASIC, creating a high-margin growth curve and further expanding Taiwan's IC design industry moat. In hardware implementation, Quanta, as a major ODM manufacturer with years of Google collaboration, directly benefits from hardware upgrades driven by Gemini 3. For TPUs to run fast, data transfer speed between chips is crucial, and Accton, as a leader in high-end network switches, can meet the strict requirements of TPU Pods for ultra-low latency and ultra-high bandwidth. Looking ahead, Su indicated that regardless of whether GPUs or TPUs ultimately gain the lead, they will drive comprehensive expansion of the AI market, similar to the competition between iOS and Android in the smartphone era, ultimately stimulating overall demand. The current competition is accelerating AI computing, model training, and chip development, bringing structural growth to the tech ecosystem. For investors wanting to participate in this tech feast, rather than betting on a single technology or company, it's better to adopt a basket holding strategy through tech leader ETFs like 00881, which cover companies with R&D capital and technological moats, potentially catching the long-term growth train of the AI era. Active Taiwan stock ETFs continue to be popular. According to the latest CMONEY statistics, the current 5 active Taiwan stock ETFs in the market have reached new highs in both beneficiaries and scale, with beneficiaries reaching 414,612 people, setting a historical high for the 6th consecutive week, and scale reaching NT$78.59 billion, challenging the NT$100 billion mark. Chen Chaozheng, manager of the soon-to-be-launched Active Yuanta Technology Innovation (00992A) in December, stated that Taiwan, as an important supply chain role in the global AI wave, has seen related concept stocks perform brilliantly, driving Taiwan's overall market performance. Taiwan's AI supply chain covers the entire value chain from chip design, manufacturing, packaging, assembly to end applications, including wafer foundry, chip design, advanced packaging and substrates, server manufacturing and assembly, server components, testing and system integration, as well as power and connector fields related to AI infrastructure. In the long term, AI infrastructure is a multi-year trend, and he recommends shifting investment strategy to "stock selection over market timing," focusing on groups with the highest certainty of long-term AI demand. Chen Yuanyi, manager of Active Yuanta Taiwan Strong Performers (00982A), stated that after the market's big ups and downs, from a technical perspective, downside support levels are the 60-day moving average, half-year line, and 15x P/E ratio. He expects the market to maintain a large box-range fluctuation before year-end. His operational suggestion is not to chase highs during rebounds but to gradually accumulate quality stocks with substantial AI orders during pullbacks. (Source: WinNews) Extended Reading: Monthly Bond ETF Distributions Announced! 4 ETFs at a Glance - 00937B Leads with Highest Distribution Rate Top 15 Investment Grade Bond ETF Performances Listed! Nearly 3-Month Returns Starting at 8% - What Institutional Investors Say 8 Bond ETFs See Hot Buying! Both Beneficiaries and Scale Increasing, Daily Average Volume Exceeding 10,000 Lots - New Bond Fund Arriving in March
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WinNews2025/11/28 18:02