Since November, the New Taiwan dollar has depreciated by 1.88% against the US dollar, resulting in exchange gains for overseas funds when converted back to NT$. Statistics show that as of the 27th, the 961 offshore funds (including equity, bond, balanced, money market, and alternative investments) approved by the Financial Supervisory Commission's Securities and Futures Bureau have risen by an average of 1.75%. Among them, 624 equity funds increased by an average of 1.56%, 55 mixed asset (balanced) funds rose by an average of 1.72%, and 260 bond funds gained an average of 2.16%.
Looking at major sector funds, technology funds have fallen by an average of 4.17% since November, placing them at the bottom. Gold, which pulled back in October, rebounded quickly in November, with gold and precious metals equity funds rising by an average of 13.73%, and 135.05% year-to-date, leading all fund categories.
Biotech equity funds also saw an average increase of 11.09%, continuing to reflect positive developments in clinical trials for new drugs, corporate acquisitions, and the gradual easing of policy headwinds, with more pharmaceutical companies using price reductions to exempt drug tariffs and other positive factors.
Evan Barratt, manager of the Franklin Templeton Biotechnology Discovery Fund, points out that the four major positive factors for biotech stocks include: (1) Favorable valuation: The NBI Biotech Index's total market value as a proportion of R&D expenditure is at its lowest level in 15 years; (2) Recent increase in success rates of Phase II and III clinical trials; (3) M&A themes: Patent cliff pressure on large pharmaceutical companies, a more friendly regulatory environment, and reduced policy uncertainty are also helping to heat up M&A activity; (4) The integration of AI into various aspects of the industry has significantly improved productivity and return on investment.
Stephen Land, manager of the Franklin Gold Fund, believes that trade tensions and de-globalization will lead to more severe inflation. If the situation continues to persist or even escalate, gold may play an important role in the future world. In fact, the willingness to hold other countries' debt and currencies is decreasing worldwide, making gold an alternative. Moreover, gold has a lower correlation with other assets, making it an excellent tool for investment diversification.
As for major regional equity funds, Greater China and Asia (excluding Japan) equity funds both recorded losses on average in November, with underperforming results mainly due to the drag from AI concept stocks taking a breather. In contrast, funds with less technology exposure, such as Latin American equity funds, rose by an average of 7.01%, leading the pack, mainly reflecting the future interest rate cut theme in high-interest-rate Brazil. US small and mid-cap stocks and Eastern European equity funds also saw increases of 4.23% and 3.78% respectively.
Manraj Sekhon, Chief Investment Officer of Franklin Templeton's Emerging Markets Equity team, states that emerging markets have undergone dramatic structural changes over the past 20 years, with the industry focus shifting from raw materials and energy to technology, consumption, and services. Numerous companies have become enterprises driving the global economy. Central banks in emerging markets have more flexible interest rate and monetary policies, with narrowing spreads compared to mature markets, and regional reforms focusing on improving return on equity. Corporate profits have also begun to recover, with the compound annual growth rate of emerging market corporate profits from 2023 to 2027 estimated to grow by 12% to 14%, which is expected to drive continued improvement in the performance of emerging market stocks relative to mature market stocks.
For major bond and balanced funds, balanced funds generally underperformed bond funds due to the drag from stock market corrections. Among bonds, emerging market local currency bond funds led with a 3.04% increase, followed by US government bond funds with an average increase of 2.6%.
Franklin Templeton Investment Services Limited Taiwan Branch notes that in December, attention will be focused on three major central bank rate meetings: the US Federal Reserve (December 9-10), the European Central Bank (December 18), and the Bank of Japan (December 19). The ECB is likely to maintain interest rates at low levels, while the Bank of Japan may raise rates again. Investors highly anticipate that the Fed will cut rates again and hope to gain insight into the US economy and monetary easing in the new year through the chairman's press conference, economic outlook, and dot plot.
(Source: WinNews)


