The daily chart shows NZD/USD completing a broad base-building process after bottoming at 0.5580 in late October 2025, with price now trading at 0.6053, above both the 50 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 0.5867 and the 200 EMA at 0.5849. The recovery from the October low produced a higher-low sequence through November and December, with the pair breaking above the 0.5850 resistance zone (a level that capped rallies for much of August and September) in late December and accelerating into January. A strong impulse leg in late January pushed NZD/USD to a high of 0.6121, its best level since mid-July 2025, before sellers stepped in and forced a pullback last week as mixed New Zealand employment data cooled expectations for a near-term rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ). The unemployment rate climbed to 5.4% in Q4, a decade high, even as employment growth of 0.5% beat forecasts, prompting markets to push back the expected timing of a hike from September to October. The RBNZ is holding its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 2.25% after an aggressive easing cycle, and its first policy meeting under new Governor Anna Breman on February 18 will be closely watched for any shift in forward guidance.
Monday’s session saw the pair open at 0.6013 and rally 0.57% to close at 0.6053, with the daily high at 0.6061 and a low of 0.5997, as broad US Dollar weakness supported risk-sensitive currencies. The bullish candle confirmed a bounce off the 0.5950 to 0.6000 support zone, which aligns with previous resistance from mid-January now acting as a floor. The Stochastic Oscillator (14, 5, 5) reads 77.37/80.04, pushing into overbought territory and suggesting near-term upside momentum could face resistance soon. Immediate resistance sits at 0.6100 to 0.6121, the January high, where sellers previously appeared on the daily chart with a long upper wick rejection candle. A daily close above 0.6121 would clear that barrier and target the July 2025 highs near 0.6150. On the downside, the 0.5950 area serves as first support, with the converging 50 and 200 EMAs around 0.5850 to 0.5870 providing a stronger structural floor. The golden cross forming between these two moving averages adds a bullish structural signal, though with the RBNZ meeting just nine days away and January’s delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data due Wednesday, two-way volatility is likely to increase as the week progresses.
NZD/USD daily chart
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/nzd-usd-claws-back-into-near-term-bull-country-202602092306
