UNI Technical Analysis Feb 9

UNI is positioned in a critical squeeze zone at the $3.50 level; while the RSI giving an oversold signal below 30 carries upside potential, the overall downtrend and bearish MACD continue to act as pressure factors. Both scenarios are supported by MTF levels, and traders need to monitor triggering breakouts.

Current Market Situation

UNI is trading at the $3.50 level with a slight 1.25% increase over the last 24 hours, with the daily range limited between $3.31 – $3.58. Volume is at a moderate 73.03M$, but the overall trend continues as a downtrend. Technical indicators show RSI at 30.15 signaling the oversold zone, while MACD maintains bearish momentum with a negative histogram. Price is trading below EMA20 ($4.10) and Supertrend is giving a bearish signal, with resistance positioned at $4.49. In MTF analysis, 10 strong levels were identified across 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 1S/1R on 3D, and resistance-dominant pressure with 2S/5R on 1W. Critical supports are at $3.4370 (score 63/100) and $2.8450 (70/100), with resistance at $3.6949 (68/100). This structure places UNI in an unstable consolidation point; while oversold conditions offer short-term recovery opportunities, higher timeframe resistances may limit upward movements.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How This Scenario Plays Out?

For the bullish scenario, a clear break and close above the $3.6949 resistance is required first. RSI bouncing from oversold to gain momentum toward 50 levels, and MACD histogram approaching the zero line confirms positive momentum. Breaking above EMA20 ($4.10) confirms the short-term trend change, while Supertrend flipping to bullish provides additional validation. A significant volume increase (daily 100M$+) and a strong green candle formation on 1D indicate the breakout’s sustainability. In MTF, overcoming resistances on 1W timeframes (e.g., $4.49), combined with an altcoin rally, strengthens the scenario. Bitcoin testing its $72.015 resistance could bring rotational buying to DeFi tokens like UNI. In this scenario, invalidation occurs with the loss of $3.4370 support – a close below this level invalidates the entire bullish structure.

Target Levels

First target $4.10 (EMA20), followed by $4.49 Supertrend resistance. On a sustainable breakout, the main target is $5.6928 (score 30/100), aligned with Fibonacci extension levels. In more optimistic conditions, testing 1W resistances could bring $6+ zones into play. The risk/reward ratio, calculated from current $3.50, stands realistically at around 1:1.8; traders can use fib retracements for stop-loss.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a break of the $3.4370 support; a close below this level confirms continuation of the downtrend. If RSI fails to rebound from oversold, it drops lower without divergence, and the MACD histogram expands more negative. Supertrend remains bearish, and distance from EMA20 accelerates. Increased selling pressure in volume (downward spike), red candle closes on 1D heighten the risk. The 5R weight on higher timeframes (1W) fuels overall market fear. Bitcoin testing $68.839 support or rising dominance could initiate liquidity hunting in UNI. Invalidation level is a close above $3.6949 – if this occurs, the bearish scenario is invalidated.

Key Support Levels

First protection at $3.4370, on break $2.8450 (strong support, score 70/100). Main bearish target $0.8172 (score 22/100), aligned with MTF supports. Intermediate levels: $3.31 daily low and $2.50 psychological zone. Risk/reward here can be 1:2+; positions should be protected with $3.6949 invalidation.

Which Scenario to Watch?

The main triggers for both scenarios are breaks of $3.6949 resistance and $3.4370 support. For bullish: volume increase + RSI>40 + MACD zero approach; for bearish: volume downward spike + RSI<25 + EMA divergence should be monitored. Daily closes are critical; if consolidation around $3.50 pivot continues, expect increased volatility. Balance MTF alignment (1W resistance pressure vs 1D oversold), avoid early entries. Follow current data from UNI Spot Analysis and UNI Futures Analysis pages.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $70.328 in downtrend (+0.10% 24h), Supertrend bearish; rising dominance creates pressure on altcoins. UNI has high correlation to BTC (DeFi sector effect); if BTC holds $68.839 support, UNI could recover, but a break drags UNI to $2.84 toward $62.910. Conversely, if BTC breaks $72.015 resistance, UNI’s bullish scenario strengthens – dominance decline triggers rotation. BTC supports (68k, 62k) are leading indicators for UNI traders; 85k resistance signals altseason in remote possibility.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

UNI carries two-way potential with oversold conditions and MTF levels; neither bullish breakout nor bearish breakdown is predictable, but triggers will be decisive. Watchlist: $3.6949/$3.4370 breaks, RSI divergence, MACD histogram, volume anomalies, and BTC 68k-72k band. Traders should act according to their own risk management, mark levels in spot or futures markets. Market dynamics can change quickly, follow regular updates.