Only 10K Bitcoin Face Realistic Quantum Computing Threat, CoinShares Research Shows

TLDR

• CoinShares estimates only 10,230 Bitcoin are vulnerable to quantum attacks and worth targeting, representing just a tiny fraction of total supply
• Most vulnerable Bitcoin sits in wallets holding under 100 BTC, which would each take around 1,000 years to crack even with optimistic quantum computing advances
• Breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography would require millions of fault-tolerant qubits, while Google’s latest quantum computer Willow has only 105 qubits
• About 1.7 million BTC (8% of supply) sits in legacy P2PK addresses with exposed public keys, but most are in small wallets
• CoinShares argues quantum threats are a medium-to-long-term risk for the 2030s or later, not an immediate crisis requiring urgent action

Digital asset manager CoinShares has released new research challenging widespread concerns about quantum computers threatening Bitcoin’s security. The firm argues that only a small portion of Bitcoin sits in wallets that would be worth attacking with quantum technology.

CoinShares Bitcoin research lead Christopher Bendiksen stated that just 10,230 Bitcoin out of 1.63 million potentially vulnerable coins are held in addresses that make economic sense to target. These coins have publicly visible cryptographic keys that quantum computers could theoretically exploit.

Around 7,000 Bitcoin are stored in wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC. Roughly 3,230 Bitcoin sit in wallets with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC. At current prices, this equals about $719 million in total value.

The remaining 1.62 million vulnerable Bitcoin are spread across wallets holding less than 100 BTC each. Bendiksen claims each of these smaller wallets would take approximately 1,000 years to crack, even assuming the most optimistic quantum computing progress.

The vulnerable Bitcoin are stored in unspent transaction output (UTXO) wallets. Many of these addresses date back to Bitcoin’s earliest days, known as the Satoshi era.

How Quantum Computers Could Target Bitcoin

The theoretical risks come from quantum algorithms like Shor’s and Grover’s. Shor’s algorithm could potentially break Bitcoin’s elliptic-curve signatures. Grover’s algorithm might weaken the SHA-256 hashing function.

CoinShares estimates that about 1.7 million BTC, representing roughly 8% of total supply, sits in legacy P2PK addresses. These older address types have exposed public keys. Modern Bitcoin addresses hide keys until coins are spent.

Breaking Bitcoin’s core cryptography would require millions of fault-tolerant qubits. Google’s latest quantum computer, Willow, currently achieves only 105 qubits. Researchers estimate current quantum computers are 10 to 100,000 times too weak to pose a real threat.

Andy Zhou, CEO of blockchain security firm BlockSec, told reporters the quantum threat remains a medium-to-long-term risk. He compared it to the Y2K problem, which allowed years of preparation time.

The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology released its first post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024. These standards include several quantum-resistant encryption and signature algorithms ready for deployment.

CoinShares researchers stated that even under optimistic assumptions, the industry has meaningful time to prepare. They estimate real quantum threats may not emerge until the 2030s or later.

Bitcoin Community Divided on Response

The Bitcoin community remains split on how to address potential quantum threats. Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor and Blockstream CEO Adam Back believe quantum concerns are overblown. They argue the network won’t face disruption for decades.

Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards takes a different view. He considers quantum computing an existential threat requiring immediate network upgrades. Edwards suggests Bitcoin could be repriced higher once security solutions are implemented.

Blockstream researcher Jonas Nick has proposed adopting post-quantum signatures as a potential solution. CoinShares warns that aggressive fixes carry their own risks. These include software bugs, forced assumptions about dormant coins, and potential erosion of Bitcoin’s neutrality.

The firm recommends gradual, voluntary migration as the preferred approach. Cameron Loo, COO at prediction market protocol functionSPACE, noted that quantum capabilities threatening Bitcoin would also break encryption for banking, military communications, and most digital infrastructure.

CoinShares emphasized that quantum algorithms cannot alter Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap or bypass its proof-of-work mechanism. The report concludes Bitcoin is nowhere near dangerous territory regarding quantum threats.

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