ATOM Weekly Analysis Feb 5

ATOM showed weak performance with a %10,49 weekly decline and is stuck in the main downtrend at the $1,81 level. Market structure is signaling distribution phase signals, but oversold conditions in RSI carry short-term reaction potential.

ATOM in the Weekly Market Summary

ATOM traded in the $1,80-$2,06 range last week and closed the week at $1,81. The weekly change was at %-10,49 level, while the volume profile was recorded at $95,06M. Bitcoin’s sharp decline (%-13,03) across the market pressured altcoins, and ATOM’s primary trend remained downward. The momentum indicator RSI fell to 30,46, approaching the oversold zone, while MACD gives a bearish signal with a negative histogram. Price, unable to hold above EMA20 ($2,14), remains weak against the $2,38 resistance. In the bigger picture, ATOM’s trend structure is broken, and a cautious accumulation search period prevails for portfolio managers.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The long-term trend structure exhibits a clear downtrend character on weekly and monthly charts. Price continues to stay below EMA20 and EMA50, moving within the falling channel on higher timeframes. The main trend remains intact, and market structure has abandoned the ‘higher highs and higher lows’ structure; recent highs were rejected around $2,38. This structure indicates that the correction phase following the rally at the end of 2025 is extending. For portfolio managers, the trend remaining intact is valid as long as the $1,7960 support is not broken, but below it, new lows will strengthen bearish momentum. In the overall cycle, ATOM’s macro cycle does not yet signal a transition to a potential accumulation phase after consolidation; on the contrary, distribution patterns dominate.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Volume profile and order flow analysis highlight distribution phase characteristics in recent weeks. Volume nodes around $2,06 are functioning as resistance, while low-volume declines indicate the cleaning of weak hands, but high-volume sales ($95M+) suggest institutional distribution. The accumulation/distribution line (A/D) shows negative divergence; according to Wyckoff methodology, $1,7960 is critical for a ‘spring’ test. The market phase is close to re-distribution; oversold RSI (30,46) may have opened the door for short-term accumulation, but volume increase is required for confirmation. Strategically, position traders should prefer short-biased approaches instead of low R/R longs in this phase.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, price leaned on local support around $1,80 but the MACD histogram is expanding negatively. On the 1D timeframe, 1 support ($1,7960) and 1 resistance ($1,9815) show strong confluence. Divergence in RSI carries short-term bounce potential; however, EMA20 breakdown could trigger downward impulse. Market structure is within a bearish flag formation with internal lows; breakout above $1,9815 would create bullish confluence.

Weekly Chart View

From a weekly perspective, there is strong multi-TF confluence with 3 supports (1W: $1,7960, $1,60s, $1,40s) and 2 resistances (1W: $2,38, $2,66). Price has stayed below the weekly Supertrend and reached the lower band of the downtrend channel. On the 3D timeframe, 2 resistance pressures ($1,98-$2,06) reinforce the overall bearish filter. Confluence score is high; weekly close above $2,00 is required for trend reversal.

Critical Decision Points

Main support level $1,7960 (score: 82/100), holding here keeps the upside scenario alive; breakdown carries cascade risk toward $1,60s. Resistance $1,9815 (score: 68/100), followed by $2,38 pivot. Upside target $2,6631, downside risk $0,9289. These levels are inflection points that will define market direction; below $1,7960 is short trigger, above is long probe zone. Multi-TF confluence concentrates at these points, position sizing should be adjusted accordingly. For detailed spot data, check ATOM detailed spot analysis.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Bullish Scenario

Bullish scenario activates with hold at $1,7960 and breakout above $1,9815. First target $2,38, extension $2,6631 (R/R 1:3+). Long positions with stop below $1,78; partial profit at $2,00. Wait for volume increase and RSI>50 confirmation. For futures positions, follow ATOM futures market data. This setup should be managed as a counter-trend bounce, with trend bias bearish.

In Bearish Scenario

Bearish scenario triggers with breakdown of $1,7960, targets $1,60 and $0,9289. Short entry on $1,98 rejection, stop above $2,06. High R/R 1:4 potential, momentum bearish. Ideal for position traders with low leverage; BTC dominance increase supportive.

Bitcoin Correlation

ATOM shows high correlation with BTC (%0,85+); BTC’s downtrend at $64,148 level is pressuring altcoins. If BTC supports $64,324-$61,368 break, cascade risk increases for ATOM (below $1,60). If BTC resistances $67,354-$69,946 are surpassed, relief rally possible for ATOM ($2,00+). While BTC Supertrend is bearish, altcoin caution mode prevails; BTC dominance rise could weaken ATOM further. For ATOM and other analyses, monitor overall market confluence.

Conclusion: Important Points for Next Week

Next week focus: $1,7960 support and $1,9815 resistance. BTC breakdown below $64k will strengthen bearish momentum, volume required for RSI bounce. While trend remains intact downward, position traders stay R/R focused; no reversal signal. Weekly close position will be direction-determining.