DOT Technical Analysis Feb 5

DOT shows deep momentum weakness in the oversold region with RSI at the 22.94 level, while the downward trend dominance is maintained with the negative expansion of the MACD histogram; short-term recovery signals remain limited.

Trend Status and Momentum Analysis

Polkadot (DOT) is stuck at the lower band of the daily range ($1.29 – $1.49) with a $1.33 current price level, experiencing a 7.77% drop in the last 24 hours. Volume is at $257.75 million, while momentum indicators generally signal bear market dominance. RSI reaching an extremely low value of 22.94 indicates that selling pressure has peaked and momentum is approaching exhaustion. However, the MACD’s negative histogram and positioning below EMA20 ($1.72) confirm that trend strength is still downward. The Supertrend indicator also gives a bearish signal at the $1.78 resistance, limiting short-term upward attempts. When examining multi-timeframe (MTF) alignment, 11 strong levels have been identified across 1D/3D/1W timeframes; with 1 support/1 resistance on 1D, 3 resistances on 3D, and 2 supports/4 resistances dominant on 1W. This configuration increases the potential for downward continuation of momentum, while the $1.2910 support level (score: 78/100) stands out as a critical holding point. Volume confirmation is weak; although volume increases on declines, upward movements lack sufficient support, signaling a delay in the accumulation phase.

RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?

RSI Divergence Analysis

RSI (14) is at 22.94, positioned deep in the classic oversold region (below 30). While price tested $1.29 at recent lows, RSI declined further at this level, not forming a regular bearish divergence but with weak hidden divergence signals. In previous swings, even as price made new lows, RSI appeared to shift slightly upward, but there is no clear bullish divergence; this shows momentum remains dominant in the selling direction. Historically, DOT has seen recoveries in the RSI 20-25 range, for example, 15% rebounds from similar levels in the last quarter of 2025. However, in the current MTF structure, 3D and 1W RSIs are also in the 35-40 range with oversold tendencies but no divergence, meaning additional confirmation is needed for a trend change.

Overbought/Oversold Regions

The oversold region dominates DOT’s momentum dynamics; the 22.94 value implies short-term buying opportunities, but the overall trend is bearish. Without breaking above the RSI 50 line, sustained recovery is difficult; the 30 line could even act as resistance now. If not supported by volume, this oversold condition could turn into a “fakeout,” meaning price could fall further. To watch: If RSI drops to 15, it’s a panic selling peak; if it rises to 35, it’s a momentum shift.

MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics

MACD is in bearish mode; the signal line is below the MACD line, and the histogram is expanding with negative bars. In the last 24 hours, the length of histogram bars has increased, indicating downward acceleration of momentum – no negative divergence since the crossover, meaning the sell signal is strengthening. For the histogram to approach the zero line, price must break above the $1.49 resistance (near $1.3663, score 84/100), but contraction is not expected with current dynamics. On 1H and 4H timeframes, the MACD histogram is deepening below zero, with a similar pattern on daily: bearish crossover confirmed. According to historical data, negative histogram expansion in DOT has led to 20% drops; in the current situation, the $0.3628 bearish target (score 22) is on the agenda, but it may be limited by RSI oversold.

EMA Systems and Trend Strength

Short-Term EMAs

Price is below EMA20 ($1.72), far from EMA50 (approximately $2.00); the ribbon is narrowing and downward sloping, reflecting momentum weakness. Short-term EMAs (8/21) have formed a death cross, measuring trend strength downward. If price tests EMA8 (around $1.45), a reaction buy could come, but if volume-less, the breakdown continues.

Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports

EMA100 ($2.20) and EMA200 ($2.50) are distant supports; ribbon dynamics show a bearish squeeze, meaning long-term trend strength is eroding. If medium-term EMA50 support breaks, decline is free to 1W EMA200 ($2.80). As EMA ribbon width narrows in trend strength measurement, consolidation or continued decline is expected; with current positioning, it’s in favor of bears.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $67,746 level with 8.23% drop in downtrend; due to high correlation with DOT (0.85+), BTC movements dominate altcoins. If BTC supports $66,720 / $62,574 break, DOT slips below $1.29; if resistances $69,195 are surpassed, relief for DOT Spot Analysis. BTC Supertrend bearish, rising dominance triggers altcoin sales – follow DOT Futures Analysis for DOT futures. If BTC drops to $53,957, DOT bearish target $0.36 activates.

Momentum Outcome and Expectations

Momentum confluence is bearish: Even though RSI is oversold, MACD histogram expansion, price below EMA, and BTC correlation support the decline. Short-term, if it holds $1.2910, test of $1.3663; if broken, drop to $1.10s; for bullish $2.1474 (score 30), RSI divergence + volume required. Without volume increase, momentum shift is difficult; bear scenario dominant, be cautious. Overall outlook: Bottom hunting risky in weak momentum, wait for trend confirmation.