Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

911 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Kevin Hassett Tops Trump 2025 Fed Chair Prediction Market as Odds Surge on Rate-Cut Bets

Kevin Hassett Tops Trump 2025 Fed Chair Prediction Market as Odds Surge on Rate-Cut Bets

The post Kevin Hassett Tops Trump 2025 Fed Chair Prediction Market as Odds Surge on Rate-Cut Bets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. According to PolyBeats monitoring on November 28, traders in the Fed Chair prediction market are pricing former White House economist Kevin Hassett as the leading nominee to head the Federal Reserve should the Trump administration nominate a chair in 2025. Hassett’s probability jumped from 14.2% to 35%, a substantial move that sharpens the market’s assessment of monetary policy risk and the trajectory of benchmark rates. Market chatter frames Hassett as the most consistent dovish voice within the President’s economic team, aligning with expectations of significant rate cuts and slower policy normalization. Sources indicate the field has narrowed to a final five, with a year‑end announcement reportedly possible, a development that could further tilt market pricing for the chair candidate. In the long‑horizon forecast, the market for Who will Trump nominate as the Fed Chair? (Deadline: December 31, 2026) shows Hassett leading with about 56% probability, while current Fed Governor Christopher Waller trails at roughly 24% as a potential backup with a hawkish posture. The probability of no new chair emerging remains near zero. Source: https://en.coinotag.com/breakingnews/kevin-hassett-tops-trump-2025-fed-chair-prediction-market-as-odds-surge-on-rate-cut-bets

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Kalshi’s Valuation Skyrockets as Investors Bet on a Prediction-Market Duopoly with Polymarket

Kalshi’s Valuation Skyrockets as Investors Bet on a Prediction-Market Duopoly with Polymarket

Kalshi’s private valuation has more than doubled in just a few weeks as it claws market share away from Polymarket. The post Kalshi’s Valuation Skyrockets as Investors Bet on a Prediction-Market Duopoly with Polymarket appeared first on Crypto News Australia.

Author: Cryptonews AU
Prediction markets surge to new highs as Neutrl unlocks hidden yield

Prediction markets surge to new highs as Neutrl unlocks hidden yield

The post Prediction markets surge to new highs as Neutrl unlocks hidden yield appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. This is a segment from the 0xResearch newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe. Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Prediction markets are exploding with record volumes, billion dollar raises and new players shaking up the landscape. At the same time, Neutrl is opening up one of the strongest and least talked about yield opportunities in crypto, and early numbers are already turning heads. Plenty to be thankful for in the middle of this market chop. Market Update Since my last update on prediction markets, the space has only gotten more competitive. New entrants want a slice of the rapidly growing pie, and the race for dominance now feels like a full-blown fundraising arms race. Kalshi’s valuation jumped to $11 billion after announcing a $1 billion round, following the NYSE’s $2 billion investment in Polymarket at a $9 billion valuation. Polymarket is already in early conversations to raise at a $12 billion to $15 billion valuation, suggesting that the market is heating up faster than expected. On the activity side, weekly volumes have broken past previous all-time highs, hitting $3.68 billion two weeks ago, which is 2.4x above last year’s election peak. A major reason for this surge is a new entrant called Opinion Labs. Backed by investors like YZi Labs, the platform is already doing close to one third of total volumes across prediction markets. However, most of this growth appears to be farming-driven. Opinion Labs is running a points program, and the data quickly shows it. One market alone, titled Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025, has done $1.28 billion in volume, which accounts for 32% of its total notional volume. It is not the type of market one would expect to generate that level of activity organically. Despite the volume surge, Opinion Labs only represents 14% of total open interest,…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Buys MIAXdx to Own Prediction Market Stack

Robinhood Buys MIAXdx to Own Prediction Market Stack

The post Robinhood Buys MIAXdx to Own Prediction Market Stack appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Deal: Robinhood and Susquehanna are buying 90% of MIAXdx (formerly LedgerX) to control their derivatives infrastructure. The Asset: The acquisition provides a CFTC-licensed exchange and clearinghouse, allowing Robinhood to list its own contracts. The Growth: Robinhood users have traded 9 billion prediction contracts, driving the move toward vertical integration. Robinhood Markets is moving to own the infrastructure behind its fastest-growing product line. The brokerage has agreed to acquire a majority stake in the MIAX Derivatives Exchange (MIAXdx), the CFTC-regulated platform formerly known as LedgerX, in a strategic joint venture with market maker Susquehanna International Group (SIG). The deal, expected to close in Q1 2026, is a play for vertical integration. By purchasing MIAXdx from Miami International Holdings (MIAX), Robinhood gains immediate access to a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and a Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO. Related: Robinhood Faces EU Regulatory Scrutiny Over New OpenAI and SpaceX Stock Tokens This dual-license structure allows Robinhood to list, execute, and clear its own event contracts and crypto derivatives, removing reliance on third-party venues. Currently, Robinhood offers prediction markets through partners; owning the stack allows for faster product listing and better economics. “Our investment in infrastructure will position us to deliver an even better experience and more innovative products,” said JB Mackenzie, VP of Futures at Robinhood. The “LedgerX” Legacy MIAXdx is the rebranded entity of LedgerX, the derivatives platform previously owned by FTX US before being sold to MIAX during the exchange’s bankruptcy proceedings in 2023. Robinhood’s acquisition effectively brings this battle-tested regulatory asset under its umbrella. Under the terms of the deal, MIAX will retain a 10% minority stake, ensuring continuity as the platform pivots toward retail-focused event contracts. Susquehanna’s Role: The Liquidity Engine  The partnership with Susquehanna is designed to solve the “cold start” problem inherent in new exchanges. As a…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Crypto.com Executive Confident Courts Will Uphold CFTC Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets

Crypto.com Executive Confident Courts Will Uphold CFTC Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets

The post Crypto.com Executive Confident Courts Will Uphold CFTC Jurisdiction Over Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crypto.com’s Global Head of Predictions, Travis McGhee, argues that prediction markets outperform traditional polling, citing the 2024 U.S. presidential election as proof. While they face ongoing legal battles, McGhee remains confident that courts will ultimately favor the industry. Why Prediction Markets Have the Edge According to Travis McGhee, Global Head of Predictions at Crypto.com, prediction […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/crypto-com-executive-confident-courts-will-uphold-cftc-jurisdiction-over-prediction-markets/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Eyes Prediction Markets with FTX-Linked Acquisition

Robinhood Eyes Prediction Markets with FTX-Linked Acquisition

The post Robinhood Eyes Prediction Markets with FTX-Linked Acquisition appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. A company with ties to the defunct cryptocurrency exchange FTX is being acquired by Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group as part of a push into the prediction market sector. According to a Reuters report on Tuesday, Robinhood and Susquehanna will acquire a 90% stake in LedgerX, one of the few solvent companies tied to FTX following its bankruptcy filing in 2022. The move came just hours after Robinhood announced the launch of a futures and derivatives platform with options for prediction markets.  Robinhood initially reported the acquisition of a majority stake in MIAXdx, an exchange and clearinghouse licensed by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission. MIAXdx, previously known as LedgerX, was acquired by Miami International Holdings (MIAX) for $50 million in 2023 amid FTX’s bankruptcy. MIAX will retain a 10% stake in the firm, according to Reuters. “Through our retained equity stake, the transaction announced today will provide MIAX with access to the growing prediction markets on an expedited basis,” said MIAX CEO and chair Thomas Gallagher. Related: UFC taps Polymarket to add betting signals for live fight coverage The acquisition could put Robinhood in a position to challenge large prediction platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket. Prediction markets surged significantly in 2024, driven partially by interest in bets on US elections. Not the only game in town Since a federal court cleared the way for Kalshi to offer event contracts tied to US elections in October 2024, the market has seen significant investments from companies in and out of the crypto industry. Kalshi reportedly increased its valuation to $11 billion last week after a funding round led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG. Polymarket also scored a regulatory win on Tuesday, with the CFTC approving the company to operate a US-intermediated trading platform. Cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase is also reportedly…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Joins the Race Against Kalshi and Polymarket After New Acquisition

Robinhood Joins the Race Against Kalshi and Polymarket After New Acquisition

The post Robinhood Joins the Race Against Kalshi and Polymarket After New Acquisition appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Fintech Robinhood is making one of its most aggressive moves yet into derivatives and prediction markets, and its latest acquisition signals that the retail trading giant wants a seat at the very top of the sector. Key Takeaways Robinhood and Susquehanna are taking majority control of LedgerX, giving Robinhood a regulated gateway into prediction markets. The deal places Robinhood in direct competition with Kalshi, Polymarket and Coinbase as event-based trading rapidly expands. Markets reacted positively, sending Robinhood shares sharply higher after the acquisition was reported. Rather than building the infrastructure from scratch, the company — alongside Susquehanna International Group — has secured controlling ownership of LedgerX, a derivatives clearinghouse that once sat inside the FTX corporate structure but remained solvent after the exchange’s collapse. A Strategic Shortcut Into Regulated Derivatives The acquisition gives Robinhood a rare asset: a federally licensed venue approved to handle futures and event-based contracts. For a company expanding beyond stock trading and crypto, that instantly removes years of regulatory hurdles. The timing of the deal is no coincidence. Earlier the same day, Robinhood introduced a new futures and derivatives division centered on prediction markets — the increasingly popular financial segment where users trade on the outcome of real-world events. LedgerX, currently operating under the MIAXdx name following a 2023 sale to Miami International Holdings, now shifts control to Robinhood and Susquehanna. MIAX will stay on board with a minority 10% stake. A Crowded Battlefield Is Taking Shape The prediction-market space has undergone a dramatic transformation this year, fueled by regulatory breakthroughs and soaring demand for event-based trading — especially around election markets. Kalshi, after winning a legal fight to list U.S. election contracts, has ballooned to an $11 billion valuation. Polymarket just earned approval from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to operate an intermediated U.S. platform.…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Can Robinhood Stock Hit $150 Amid Ark Invest’s Bet & This Major Update?

Can Robinhood Stock Hit $150 Amid Ark Invest’s Bet & This Major Update?

The post Can Robinhood Stock Hit $150 Amid Ark Invest’s Bet & This Major Update? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Insights: Robinhood stock jumped more than 5% today, sparking market optimism. The surge comes as Ark Invest has made a significant HOOD stock acquisition. Analyst reveals a target of $150 for Robinhood stock. Robinhood stock has recorded a surge of over 5% in the pre-market trading session today, soaring past the $120 mark. Notably, the surge in HOOD stock price came despite a muted sentiment recorded in the broader crypto market, and BTC price traded below $87,000. A flurry of market experts has attributed the recent gains in the crypto stock to the latest expansion plans of it into the prediction markets. For context, a recent acquisition of the firm appears to have fueled the market interest. On the other hand, Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest has made robust bets in the crypto stocks arena. For context, Ark Invest has recently bagged shares of Circle, Coinbase, and Robinhood, among others, indicating its confidence in the assets. Amid this, a top expert has hinted at a potential surge of the HOOD stock price to $150. So, here we explore the potential reasons behind the surge in Robinhood stock and see what experts are anticipating for the potential future trajectory of the asset. Robinhood Stock Soars Amid Ark Invest’s Bet The Robinhood (HOOD) stock price has added nearly 5.2% in the pre-market trading session today and traded at $121.59. Notably, this comes after the crypto stock closed at $115.57, up 0.5% in the prior session on Tuesday, November 25. Robinhood Stock Price | Source: Yahoo Finance The latest surge has helped in a 1% gain in HOOD stock on its weekly chart, but the monthly return was down at 17%. The price dip over the past few weeks could be attributed to the broader crypto market selloff, which has spooked traders and…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood’s FTX-Linked MIAXdx Stake Could Boost Competition in Prediction Markets

Robinhood’s FTX-Linked MIAXdx Stake Could Boost Competition in Prediction Markets

The post Robinhood’s FTX-Linked MIAXdx Stake Could Boost Competition in Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group are acquiring a 90% stake in MIAXdx, an FTX-linked exchange formerly known as LedgerX, to expand into prediction markets. This strategic move positions them against competitors like Kalshi and Polymarket amid surging interest in event-based trading platforms. Acquisition Details: Robinhood and Susquehanna secure majority control of MIAXdx, a CFTC-licensed clearinghouse with roots in the FTX ecosystem. The deal follows Robinhood’s recent launch of a futures and derivatives platform, enhancing access to prediction markets for retail investors. Prediction markets grew significantly in 2024, with platforms like Kalshi reaching a $11 billion valuation and Polymarket gaining CFTC approval for U.S. operations. Discover how Robinhood’s acquisition of an FTX-linked exchange boosts its prediction markets entry. Explore competition with Kalshi, Polymarket, and market growth trends in 2024. Stay informed on crypto trading innovations today. What is Robinhood’s Acquisition of the FTX-Linked MIAXdx Exchange? Robinhood’s acquisition of a stake in MIAXdx, formerly LedgerX, marks a pivotal expansion into prediction markets for the trading platform. In a deal announced recently, Robinhood Markets and Susquehanna International Group are purchasing a 90% stake in the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission-licensed exchange and clearinghouse. This acquisition, valued in the context of Miami International Holdings’ prior $50 million purchase in 2023, allows Robinhood to integrate advanced derivatives and event contract offerings shortly after launching its own futures platform. How Does This Position Robinhood Against Competitors in Prediction Markets? The acquisition directly challenges established players like Kalshi and Polymarket, which have dominated the prediction markets space. Kalshi, for instance, saw its valuation soar to $11 billion following a funding round led by Sequoia Capital and CapitalG, reflecting investor confidence in event-based trading tied to real-world outcomes such as U.S. elections. Polymarket, a blockchain-based platform, received CFTC approval to operate a U.S.-intermediated trading venue, enabling broader…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Robinhood Stock Rises Following Deal That Could Boost Its Prediction Market Push

Robinhood Stock Rises Following Deal That Could Boost Its Prediction Market Push

The post Robinhood Stock Rises Following Deal That Could Boost Its Prediction Market Push appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. In brief Trading app Robinhood has acquired a 90% stake in derivatives exchange LedgerX, in partnership with Susquehanna International Group. Research firm Bernstein believes the acquisition is a move by Robinhood to launch its own prediction market platform, alongside the Kalshi-powered “events contracts” it already offers. As a result, shares of HOOD have risen 8% on Wednesday as the firm inches closer to its September all-time high. Robinhood may be making a push towards launching its own dedicated prediction market platform, acquiring a 90% stake in derivatives exchange LedgerX, which was previously owned by the now-defunct FTX. In response, the shares of HOOD have climbed more than 8% to $125 since Wednesday’s market open, according to Yahoo Finance. “Robinhood is seeing strong customer demand for prediction markets, and we’re excited to build on that momentum,” said JB Mackenzie, VP and general manager of futures and international at Robinhood, in a statement. “Our investment in infrastructure will position us to deliver an even better experience and more innovative products for customers.” The popular trading app partnered with prediction market Kalshi in the summer to start offering what it brands as “event contracts,” which its CEO Vlad Tenev said were “really on fire” in a recent earnings call.  However, research firm Bernstein believes the acquisition of LedgerX, which does business under the name MIAX, is a move by Robinhood to launch its own event contracts alongside the Kalshi-powered offerings. “With HOOD already accounting for more than 50% of Kalshi market volumes, we believe, HOOD wants to leverage its distribution edge to claim a higher share of the market revenue pool,” Bernstein analysts said in a note shared with Decrypt. “By adding its own prediction markets liquidity, HOOD can innovate further on product mix leading to more revenue upside from both growing…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews