Friday could be a wild day of trading on Wall Street. Here’s why

Wall Street could be in for a volatile end to the week as traders brace for what Goldman Sachs says will be the largest options expiration on record.

More than $7.1 trillion in notional options exposure is set to expire this Friday, according to Goldman, including roughly $5 trillion tied to the S&P 500 index and $880 billion linked to single stocks. December options expirations are typically the biggest of the year, but this one eclipses all prior records, the firm said.

To put the scale in context, the options expiring Friday represent notional exposure equal to about 10.2% of the total market capitalization of the Russell 3000, Goldman said.

That dynamic could lead to choppy trading, particularly around heavily watched levels in the S&P 500, according to Jeff Kilburg, founder and CEO of KKM Financial.

“I am expecting volumes to be well above normal as options traders finalize 2025 profits and losses,” Kilburg said. “But a lot of the repositioning seems to have already taken place. 6800 is a big strike price in the S&P and we will see if the bulls can defend that level after pushing the market back above it this morning.”

The S&P 500 is up about 15% this year, trading around 6,770 Thursday.

While the broader market could have heightened volumes and volatility, some individual stocks with large open interest could see a different scenario. If options traders who hedge their positions are sitting on a large amount of at-the-money options, the activity tied to those contracts expiring can actually calm price swings rather than intensify them. Options that are “at the money” have strike prices that are equal to the current price of the underlying asset.

As traders adjust their hedges, prices can get pulled toward heavily traded strike levels, a phenomenon known as a “pin,” leaving stocks hovering near key levels into the close, Goldman noted.

“This situation is often referred to as a ‘pin’ and can be an ideal situation for a large investor trying to enter/exit a stock position,” Goldman said.

Stocks with options expiring Friday that represent a large share of their typical daily trading volume — and could be prone to pinning” — include GeneDx Holdings, BILL Holdings, Avis Budget Group and GameStop, the firm found.