The main theme of U.S. stocks this week is not AI, but Liquidity. ADP private-sector employment in August increased by only 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000; ISM Manufacturing PMI andThe main theme of U.S. stocks this week is not AI, but Liquidity. ADP private-sector employment in August increased by only 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000; ISM Manufacturing PMI and
U.S. Stocks Weekly Report Sep 12–Sep 17 | Fed Raises Rates by 25 Basis Points, Goldman Sachs Says "Not Economically Necessary," S&P Year-End Target Remains at 8,000
The main theme of U.S. stocks this week is not AI, but Liquidity.
ADP private-sector employment in August increased by only 38,000, below the market expectation of 48,000; ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings softened simultaneously. After the labor market continuously signaled cooling, Fed Governor Waller stated he was willing to keep interest rates unchanged if inflationary pressures eased—the probability of a rate hike in September dropped rapidly from about 66%, and the sword hanging over risk assets was temporarily sheathed.
The market's reaction was immediate and intense. On September 3, all three major indices rebounded, with the Dow Jones posting its best single-day performance in nearly a month; Bitcoin surged to $81,379 intraday, hitting a four-month high. The biggest gainers were not AI leaders, but U.S. stock targets on the crypto chain: Robinhood (HOOD) rose 19.7% for the week, and Strategy (MSTR) rose 14.3%.
That same week, Broadcom (AVGO) reported a 221% year-over-year increase in AI semiconductor revenue, yet its stock price closed down 3.1%. Examining these two events together is what truly warrants attention this week.
1. Key Sectors and Targets This Week
Macro Overview
Three major macro signals this week:
· ADP August private employment increased by only 38,000 (expected +48,000), while the ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS job openings softened simultaneously, signaling continuous cooling in the labor market.
· Fed Governor Waller stated that he is willing to keep interest rates unchanged if inflationary pressures ease, causing the probability of a September rate hike to drop rapidly from around 66%; on Sep 3, all three major indices rebounded, with the Dow Jones posting its best single-day performance in nearly a month.
· Bitcoin surged to $81,379 intraday, hitting a four-month high, while gold strengthened simultaneously; long-term yields and the US dollar both declined, marking a rare simultaneous rise in risk assets and safe-haven assets.
Robinhood (HOOD) | This Week +19.7% · YTD +9.7%
One of the strongest bullish performers in the US stock market this week. Bitcoin breaking $81,000 drove a surge in trading volume, with Robinhood (HOOD) soaring 19.7% in a single week. More notably, on-chain data shows that on September 2, Robinhood Chain's Real World Asset (RWA) tokens recorded $390 million in single-day trading volume, including $217 million for memecoin-stock trading pairs and $127 million for tokenized stocks, both hitting all-time highs; network user fees reached $3.75 million in 24 hours, also a historical peak.
Retail investors are not just back; they are trading with new products.
Strategy (MSTR) | This Week +14.3% · YTD -7.4%
This week's gain significantly outperformed the coin price itself, indicating that when expectations of rate hikes subside, the beta of Bitcoin-holding companies is amplified to the greatest extent. However, note that MSTR is still down 7.4% year-to-date—the same leverage amplifies moves in both directions when the trend reverses.
Electric Vehicles / Autonomous Driving
Tesla (TSLA) | This Week +7.6% · YTD -14.0%
On Sep 3, Tesla (TSLA) unveiled the mass-production version of Cybercab in Austin—a two-seater autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, with a target price under $30,000. The market reacted positively, surging to its best single-day performance in nearly three months, with a cumulative gain of +18% over the past month.
However, TSLA is still down 14.0% year-to-date; whether the narrative can translate into actual deliveries and revenue remains key going forward.
2. Stock Spotlight
Robinhood (HOOD): Weekly Gains Outpace Crypto Prices, Leveraging the Business Model
Bitcoin breaks $81,000, with Robinhood (HOOD) weekly gains outperforming the coin price itself—this is no coincidence, but leverage from its business model.
Robinhood's revenue is directly tied to trading volume, which amplifies non-linearly in a bull market. This week, Robinhood Chain's tokenized assets saw single-day trading volume of $390 million and user fees of $3.75 million, both hitting record highs. This indicates that retail investors are not just back, but are trading with new products. Once the interest rate hike alarm is lifted, every transaction on this chain turns into profit.
Worth watching closely is the tokenized stock segment. A single-day trading volume of $127 million is not significant for traditional brokerages, but it represents a brand-new revenue curve with a regulatory framework still taking shape. If this segment continues to scale, HOOD's valuation logic will no longer be just "beta on crypto market trends."
Broadcom (AVGO): AI Delivers a Perfect Score, But the Market Starts Questioning the Other Half of the Business
AI semiconductor revenue hit $16.7B in a single quarter, up 221% year-over-year, with Q4 guidance accelerating further to $21.7B—the numbers were nearly perfect, yet the stock price fell.
The issue lies not with AI, but with everything outside of it. Q4 total revenue guidance of $34.8B was slightly below the market expectation of $35.03B, and the recovery pace of non-AI businesses (VMware, broadband, enterprise storage) was slower than anticipated. When a company's AI narrative is already fully priced in, the market begins to scrutinize the remaining half of its business.
This is the second test that all AI beneficiary stocks will eventually face: AI growth is fast enough, but can it be fast enough to offset the weakness in non-AI businesses? Next week's earnings report from Oracle (ORCL) will be another example of the same question.
3. This Week's Discussion
Discussion 1: The Worse the Employment Data, the Sharper the Stock Market Rally—This Year, the Market’s Reaction Function Has Been Reversed
In previous years, weakening employment meant recession fears; this year, it’s the exact opposite.
· Different Policy Background: The Fed under Warsh is discussing rate hikes rather than cuts. The probability of a September rate hike once surged to around 66%, with interest rates still in the 3.50%–3.75% range. Under this premise, the risk suppressing the stock market is not recession, but tightening.
· So Bad News Is Good News: As soon as employment data softened, the threat of rate hikes was shelved. With ADP showing only +38,000 jobs and Waller softening his stance, the market immediately covered its risk exposure, leading to the Dow Jones’ best single-day performance in nearly a month on Sep 3.
· What to Watch Next: Only by understanding this reaction function can we comprehend why bad news drives prices up. Next week’s PPI on Sep 10 and CPI on Sep 11 are the final variables determining the Sep 16 FOMC decision—if inflation data rebounds, this logic will immediately reverse.
Discussion 2: With Liquidity Rebounding, Why Is the Crypto Chain Surging Even More Than AI?
Bitcoin breaks $81,000; Robinhood (HOOD) up 19.7% for the week, Strategy (MSTR) up 14.3%, significantly outperforming the negative returns of Broadcom (AVGO) and Zscaler (ZS) over the same period.
· The reason is duration: Cash flows from AI stocks are already being realized, with a significant portion of their valuation derived from visible current profits; the value of crypto assets lies almost entirely in the future, so a drop in the discount rate naturally leads to greater valuation elasticity.
· But this works both ways: Prices fall just as quickly when the trend reverses. The crypto chain is the most sensitive thermometer for liquidity expectations, not the most stable position—a point clearly illustrated by MSTR's year-to-date decline of 7.4%.
4. Key Calendar for Next Week
Date | Type | Event | Key Focus |
Sep 7 (Mon) | Major Event | US Labor Day (US Stock Market Closed) | Only four trading days this week; liquidity is thin, with data concentrated in the latter half of the week. Be aware that volatility may be amplified. |
Sep 9 (Wed) | Earnings | Oracle (ORCL) After Hours | The only major earnings report next week; AI cloud infrastructure orders and RPO backlog are key highlights, testing whether the AI capital expenditure narrative can continue following Broadcom (AVGO). |
Sep 10 (Thu) | Data | PPI Producer Price Index (Aug) | Upstream reading in the inflation chain, setting the tone for the next day's CPI; if upstream pressure eases, rate hike expectations will cool further. |
Sep 11 (Fri) | Data | CPI Consumer price index（CPI） (Aug) | Last inflation data before FOMC; this is the final variable determining whether rates will be hiked in September, with the week's risks concentrated on this day. |
Sep 15–16 (Tue–Wed) | Major Event | FOMC Interest Rate Decision (Announced Sep 16) | First interest rate decision since Warsh took office; the market currently prices in holding rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but the option of a rate hike has not been completely ruled out. |
*All dates above are in Eastern Time (ET). Earnings dates are subject to company announcements.
Next week's rhythm is "quiet first, then active": The Labor Day holiday leaves only four trading days for the week, with thin liquidity; real risks are concentrated on Sep 10 (PPI) and Sep 11 (CPI), leading directly into the FOMC decision window on Sep 15–16. We recommend paying attention to position risk management in advance.
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6. This Week's Q&A
Q1: Why did Broadcom’s (AVGO) AI revenue surge by 221%, yet its stock price fell?
Because the market had already priced in AI's high growth, this quarter's incremental surprise was insufficient to further drive valuation. The real issue lies in the Q4 total revenue guidance of $34.8B, slightly below the expected $35.03B—the gap stems from the slower recovery of non-AI businesses such as VMware, broadband, and enterprise storage. When the AI segment is fully priced in, the remaining half of the business becomes the new pricing variable.
Q2: Was Robinhood’s (HOOD) 19.7% gain purely driven by Bitcoin's rise?
It is related, but not entirely. HOOD's revenue is directly linked to trading volume, which expands nonlinearly during hot market conditions, so its gains outperformed the coin price. Meanwhile, this week's on-chain data for Robinhood Chain (RWA daily trading volume of $390 million, user payments of $3.75 million) both hit record highs, representing genuine volume growth from its own product lines rather than just passive following.
Q3: Zscaler’s (ZS) earnings beat expectations across the board, so why did the stock price still fall?
The earnings figures were indeed flawless—revenue up 25%, EPS exceeded expectations, ARR reached $3.77 billion, and the new fiscal year guidance was raised. However, ZS has accumulated a -19.3% decline year-to-date, indicating that the market still has divergent views on its valuation and competitive landscape. Persistent divergence between fundamentals and stock price usually leads to two outcomes: either the stock price catches up, or the market sees something beyond the earnings report. More quarterly data is needed to make a judgment; it is too early to draw conclusions at this stage.
Q4: Rate Hike or Cut? How Should We Understand the Fed's Direction Now?
Interest rates are currently maintained at 3.50%–3.75%. The market is discussing whether to raise rates, not cut them—this is completely different from the context of the past two years. The probability of a rate hike in September was once around 66%, but it declined this week due to softer employment data and Waller's comments. Before the FOMC meeting on Sep 15–16, the PPI on Sep 10 and the CPI on Sep 11 are the two most critical variables.
Q5: Crypto-related stocks have risen so much; where are the risks?
The risk lies in their bidirectional elasticity. The crypto chain is most sensitive to liquidity expectations; it surges the most when discount rates fall and drops the fastest when expectations reverse. MSTR is still down 7.4% year-to-date, which is the most direct example—a single-week gain of +14.3% does not mean the annual performance is positive. This is a matter of position structure and risk budgeting, requiring judgment based on individual holdings and risk tolerance, with no one-size-fits-all answer.
Disclaimer: This content is for market information and educational reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. The individual stocks mentioned are subjects of public market discussion and do not represent recommendations or opinions from MEXC. Investment involves risks; please exercise your own prudent judgment. Stock price fluctuations are based on publicly available market information, subject to final market data. This material is provided by the MEXC US Stock Spot Team. The copyright of this weekly report belongs to MEXC. Please cite the source when reposting.
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