U.S. Stock Weekly | Aug. 15–20: Treasury Doubles Long-End Buybacks, Bitcoin Reclaims $70K Overnight — Did You Catch the Move?

The biggest variable in the U.S. stock market this week did not come from any single company, but from a Treasury announcement: the U.S. Treasury said it would double long-term Treasury buybacks from $2B per week to $4B, effective September 9. The signal immediately triggered expectations for easier liquidity conditions, while Bitcoin surged 8% in a single day and broke above the $70K mark. Roughly $1.44 billion in crypto short liquidations further amplified the move. Crypto exchange Coinbase (COIN) gained 15.8% for the week, becoming one of the market’s most closely watched beneficiaries.

Meanwhile, Walmart (WMT) delivered better-than-expected earnings but still suffered a “sell the news” reaction, falling nearly 10% for the week. Alibaba (BABA) rose despite EPS coming in well below expectations. Strong results from ADI were overshadowed by macro pressure. FOMC minutes revealed a widening policy split, while the 30-year Treasury yield approached a nearly 20-year high. Next week, all eyes turn to Jackson Hole, where Warsh is set to make his first public appearance as Federal Reserve Chair.

1. Weekly Macro Environment: Treasury Doubles Long-End Buybacks + Hawkish FOMC Split Reprices Liquidity Expectations

Three major macro signals deserve close attention this week:

· The 30-year Treasury yield reached a nearly 20-year high, as concerns over the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal deficit continued to intensify. Higher long-end yields have remained a valuation headwind for growth stocks.

· FOMC minutes showed the committee voted 9–3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, while Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari favored a rate hike. Markets currently assign roughly a 65% probability to rates being held steady in September, although the path ahead remains highly data-dependent.

· The Treasury announced that buybacks of 10–30-year Treasuries would increase from $2B to $4B starting September 9. This was the most important policy signal of the week and immediately fueled expectations of expanding liquidity.

2. Key Sectors and Representative Stocks This Week

2.1 AI Compute / Semiconductors & Industrials

Nvidia (NVDA)｜This Week -3.4% · YTD +16.4%

Nvidia (NVDA) fell 3.4% this week as pressure from the bond market weighed on the broader sector, although there were no clear signs of a slowdown in Blackwell shipments. The real catalyst comes next Wednesday (8/26) after the market close, when Nvidia reports earnings. This will be one of the most important AI catalysts of the year, with FY2027 revenue guidance likely to determine how investors reprice the AI compute cycle. Stronger-than-expected guidance could help repair recent sector sentiment.

Analog Devices (ADI)｜This Week -4.2% · YTD +34.1%

ADI reported strong results this week: Q3 revenue reached $4.02B, up 40% YoY, EPS came in at $3.45 above expectations, and gross margin reached 72.5%. Fundamentals were strong across the board, with both data center and industrial demand continuing to recover. Even so, the stock fell 4.2% alongside broader sector weakness, highlighting the current disconnect between fundamentals and macro sentiment. ADI remains up 34.1% year to date, and its longer-term thesis remains intact.

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2.2 Consumer / Retail

Walmart (WMT)｜This Week -9.63% · YTD -7.14%

Walmart (WMT) reported Q2 revenue of $187.9B, up 5.9% YoY, while EPS reached $0.81, with both figures beating expectations. E-commerce grew 23% and advertising revenue increased 38%, meaning nearly every major operating metric came in strong. Yet the stock still fell almost 10% for the week.

The reason is that the market is focused less on the quarter that just ended and more on the outlook for H2. The impact of tariffs has yet to be fully reflected, while the resilience of consumers in the second half remains uncertain. Investors chose to sell first and wait for more clarity. Advertising and e-commerce remain Walmart’s real growth engines, but in a sentiment-driven market, even strong fundamentals may not be immediately rewarded.

2.3 Crypto / Exchanges

Coinbase (COIN)｜This Week +15.8% · YTD -24%

Bitcoin reclaimed the $70K level, while surging trading activity helped drive Coinbase (COIN) up 15.8% for the week. The logic behind the move was clear: Treasury long-end buybacks doubled → expectations for lower long-term yields → easier liquidity conditions → Bitcoin broke above $70K → roughly $1.4 billion in short liquidations amplified the rally.

At the same time, clearer SEC regulatory signals and the White House crypto summit reinforced the broader compliance narrative. Although COIN remains down 24% year to date, this move was not simply a short squeeze. The policy backdrop itself has materially changed.

2.4 China Tech / E-Commerce

Alibaba (BABA)｜This Week +5.2% · YTD -11.2%

Alibaba (BABA) reported EPS of $1.01, well below the expected $1.50, yet the stock still gained 5.2% for the week. The reason is that much of the bad news had already been priced in. The market is now focused on a new narrative built around AI cloud growth and the Qwen large-model ecosystem. The key question going forward is whether AI investment can translate into meaningful revenue acceleration.

3. Individual Stock Deep Dives

3.1 Walmart (WMT): Why Is the Market Worried Even After Strong Earnings?

Revenue reached $187.9B, up 5.9%, EPS increased 11%, and e-commerce grew 23% — yet the stock still fell nearly 10% for the week.

The market is less concerned with the quarter that just passed than with what comes next. Tariff uncertainty has not yet fully played out, and investors are questioning whether consumers can remain resilient through H2. For now, the market has chosen to sell first and wait for confirmation.

Advertising and e-commerce remain Walmart’s real growth engines, but the selloff also highlights an important lesson: even strong fundamentals can struggle against a market that is pricing future risks aggressively.

The core question is whether H2 consumer resilience can support the current valuation. If tariff pressure eases at the margin, Walmart (WMT) could regain investor confidence through its omnichannel model and advertising ecosystem. Until the data confirms that view, however, volatility may remain elevated.

3.2 Coinbase (COIN): This Time It Is More Than a Short Squeeze

Coinbase (COIN) gained 15.8% this week, and the logic behind the move is straightforward: Treasury long-end buybacks doubled → expectations for lower long-term yields → easier liquidity → Bitcoin reclaimed $70K → around $1.4 billion in short liquidations pushed the rally even further.

Combined with clearer SEC regulatory signals and the White House crypto summit, the compliance narrative is now moving forward in a more tangible way. COIN remains down 24% year to date, but this rally is more than a short-covering bounce — the underlying policy logic has changed.

As one of the leading regulated crypto exchanges in the U.S., Coinbase (COIN) is also being repriced as the U.S. crypto regulatory framework gradually becomes clearer, potentially improving confidence in the sustainability of its business model.

4. Weekly Market Discussion

4.1 Treasury Doubles Long-End Buybacks — How Does Liquidity Expansion Reach Bitcoin at $70K?

The Treasury increased 10–30-year Treasury buybacks from $2B to $4B, effective September 9. This was the most decisive macro signal of the week.

· Direct buying at the long end helps reduce pressure on long-term yields and releases expectations for easier liquidity conditions. Risk assets rose in tandem, with Bitcoin becoming one of the most sensitive beneficiaries of the shift.

· Bitcoin surged 8% in a single day to $71K, while $1.44 billion in short liquidations created a positive feedback loop. Coinbase (COIN) gained 13%, while Strategy also rose 13% — reinforcing the idea that crypto has become one of the most sensitive barometers of Fed and Treasury liquidity expectations.

· The next key question is whether the Treasury expands buybacks further in September or whether the Fed signals potential rate cuts. If either occurs, the liquidity narrative for crypto assets could strengthen further. The market reaction after actual implementation begins on September 9 will be especially important.

4.2 Hawkish FOMC Split + 30-Year Yield Near a 20-Year High — Jackson Hole Becomes the Year’s Key Policy Window

The FOMC minutes revealed an unusually visible split between hawkish and dovish members, while the bond market has already begun to make its own judgment.

· The FOMC voted 9–3 to keep rates unchanged at 3.5%–3.75%, with Logan, Hammack, and Kashkari favoring a hike. Meanwhile, the 30-year Treasury yield touched a nearly 20-year high as concerns over the sustainability of the fiscal deficit intensified. Pressure from long-end yields may remain difficult to shake in the near term.

· Markets currently assign about a 65% probability to rates remaining unchanged in September, but the path ahead remains highly data-dependent. The 8/26 PCE report and second estimate of Q2 GDP will be the final major pieces of macro data ahead of Jackson Hole.

· The Jackson Hole symposium will take place from 8/27–29, with Warsh scheduled to make his first public speech as Federal Reserve Chair on the morning of 8/28. This will be one of the year’s most important policy signals, with markets closely watching his comments on the rate-cut path and any changes to the Fed’s forward-guidance framework.

5. Key Calendar for Next Week

*All dates are in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). Earnings dates are subject to company announcements.

August 26 will be the most event-heavy day of next week, with Nvidia earnings after the close, PCE inflation data, and the second estimate of Q2 GDP all landing on the same day. Any significant upside or downside surprise could trigger substantial volatility. Investors may want to pay close attention to position sizing and risk management.

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Disclaimer

This content is provided for market information and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. The stocks mentioned are based on publicly available market information and do not represent recommendations or opinions from MEXC. Investing involves risk. Please make your own independent and prudent decisions. Stock performance figures are based on publicly available market data and are subject to final market prices.

© 2026 MEXC Global · This material is provided by the MEXC U.S. Stock Spot Team. All rights to this weekly report belong to MEXC. Please cite the source when reposting.