Recently, Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating around the key support level of $115,000, maintaining a consolidation pattern at high levels. According to MEXC data, as of the time of writing, BTC isRecently, Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating around the key support level of $115,000, maintaining a consolidation pattern at high levels. According to MEXC data, as of the time of writing, BTC is
Learn/Featured Content/Three Major Warning Signals for Bitcoin: Is a Market Shift Just One Spark Away?
Three Major Warning Signals for Bitcoin: Is a Market Shift Just One Spark Away?
Recently, Bitcoin's price has been fluctuating around the key support level of $115,000, maintaining a consolidation pattern at high levels. According to MEXC data, as of the time of writing, BTC is trading at 118,384.5 USDT, with a 24-hour gain of 0.77%.
However, on-chain data and the derivatives market are simultaneously flashing multiple warning signals, indicating that the current market structure is highly compressed—risk and opportunity coexist at a critical juncture. Based on MEXC Futures data, since July 26, long positions have dominated but momentum is waning. Meanwhile, short-side leverage pressure is gradually emerging, with on-chain signs of profit-taking and whale asset distribution. Combined with seasonal liquidity weakness and macro policy uncertainty, the market is entering a highly sensitive inflection window. With the long-short divide narrowing, any external catalyst could serve as a trigger for a trend reversal.
1. Derivatives market signals intensify, short-side leverage dominates short-term structure
According to CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr., as of July 25, Bitcoin’s net open interest (OI) in futures has once again fallen below $100 million, returning to a historically significant resistance zone. This level has frequently preceded major market volatility, such as in October 2023 and March 2024—both instances coincided with trend-level reversals. Currently, short-side leverage is rising significantly, compressing the maneuvering space for longs while also building momentum for a potential short squeeze. If the price breaks above the $116,000–$118,000 range, short stop-losses could be triggered en masse, possibly leading to a short-term breakout rally.
Source: CryptoQuant
2. On-Chain Profit-Taking and Seasonal Structural Risks Align
On-chain indicators from CryptoQuant suggest that Bitcoin has entered a period of high-pressure release (see chart below). As of July 24, the 7-day average Net Realized Profit reached $1.9 billion—the second-highest level of the year, surpassed only by the March peak. Previous spikes in realized profit (e.g., November 2023, March 2024, and January 2025) have coincided with local market tops. Notably, this current wave of profit-taking includes a large number of wallets that have held Bitcoin for over a year, signaling waning confidence among long-term holders. If Bitcoin’s price fails to continue its upward trajectory and remains range-bound instead, selling pressure may intensify—potentially triggering a structural correction driven by internal profit realization. Historically, rapid increases in this indicator approaching extreme levels tend to mark the formation of local tops.
Research from Cointelegraph highlights that short-term market liquidity is heavily concentrated within the $122,000 to $123,200 range, where over $2 billion in short positions are at risk of liquidation—making it a battleground for bulls. However, several structural factors are hindering a breakout. Daily trading volume has dropped below $8.6 billion, while the RSI has declined from early July highs to 51.7, reflecting weakening momentum. Additionally, ETF inflows have sharply declined from $2.5 billion to under $500 million, signaling reduced institutional buying interest. Furthermore, approximately 95% of circulating BTC is currently in unrealized profit, creating significant potential for further profit-taking.
Spot BTC ETF Net Inflows (Weekly). Source: Glassnode
Seasonality further compounds market risk. Historical data shows that over 60% of August trading periods have resulted in negative returns, making it one of Bitcoin’s weakest months. With declining trading activity and reduced onchain engagement, evidenced by drops in active addresses and transfer volumes, the risk of a market pullback is building.
BTC Monthly Historical Average Returns. Source: Axel Adler Jr.
3. Whale Selling Exerts On-Chain Pressure
According to Coin World, since July 15, a massive wallet managed by Galaxy Digital—containing Bitcoin traced back to early miners—has begun moving large amounts of BTC. By July 24, over 68,000 BTC had been distributed across various exchanges and suspected OTC addresses. As reported by Crypto Briefing on July 29, Galaxy Digital recently transferred 3,782 BTC (approximately $447 million) to exchanges, sparking speculation about potential selling pressure. While Galaxy has adopted a gradual release strategy to avoid triggering a sharp market drop, this approach could extend the period of price suppression and delay a broader market recovery.
4. Key Zones and Policy Catalysts: Market at a Critical Turning Point
The current market sits within a classic "triple critical" high-pressure structure: extreme levels of short leverage in futures, accelerated profit-taking by in-the-money holders on-chain, and early signs of whale selling pressure yet to be fully released. In such a fragile balance, any significant fluctuation in a single variable could break the structure and trigger a directional move.
From a technical standpoint, the market is hovering between key support and resistance levels, entering a pivotal zone of intense struggle between bulls and bears. The support zone lies between $112,000 and $114,500—if this is breached, a structural correction may be confirmed. On the upside, resistance clusters around $118,000, $120,000, and $122,000. A breakout above this resistance band and into the $123,000 range could trigger stop-losses for short positions and liquidity sweeps, opening space for further gains. However, if the rally stalls and confirms a “double top” formation at higher levels, the speed and magnitude of the reversal could be significant.
While the short-term structure remains weak, upcoming macro and policy developments may serve as potential catalysts for a breakout. The market widely expects the U.S. administration to release a regulatory or policy framework related to Bitcoin, possibly including a Bitcoin Reserve Framework or a “delta-neutral accumulation strategy.” If implemented, such policies could provide meaningful tailwinds for ETF inflows and institutional capital allocation. Additionally, this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve FOMC meeting is another key event. Should the Fed strike a dovish tone—particularly if Chair Jerome Powell signals the possibility of a rate cut in September—it may prompt a reevaluation of risk assets and serve as a macro trigger for Bitcoin to attempt new highs.
5. Temper Risk Appetite, Let Strategy Guide Action
With no clear trend established, chasing rallies or panicking in downturns carries high risk. For investors, the more prudent approach is to control leverage, avoid overtrading, and wait for a confirmed directional breakout. Rather than making forced bets on market direction, focus should be placed on monitoring capital flows on-chain, shifts in major holdings, and key price level breakouts or breakdowns. The market remains in a consolidation phase, with sentiments highly sensitive. Once a critical point is breached, momentum could accelerate rapidly. In such moments, position control and adaptability are more crucial than choosing a side.
To manage risk effectively, investors can fully utilize MEXC’s built-in TP/SL features. Setting take-profit targets helps lock in gains and avoid profit erosion during pullbacks, while properly configured stop-losses can limit downside and prevent larger losses. MEXC supports flexible configurations for these functions, allowing users to set trigger and execution prices in line with their risk tolerance and market conditions. Mastering these tools is key to building a more resilient trading strategy and improving efficiency.
At present, the Bitcoin market is neither at the peak of a bull cycle nor at the depths of a bear market. Rather, it stands on the edge of a high-volatility inflection point. With all variables nearing extremes, the market needs only a single spark to ignite a major move. Staying calm, tracking signals, and managing risk may be the best way to navigate this turbulent window.
Recommended reading:
- Why Choose MEXC Futures? Discover the advantages and features of MEXC Futures to get ahead in the market.
- How to Participate in M-Day Learn the steps and tips to join M-Day and claim your share of over 70,000 USDT in daily futures bonuses.
- MEXC Futures Trading Tutorial (App) A step-by-step guide to futures trading on the app—start trading with ease and confidence.
Disclaimer: The information provided in this material does not constitute advice on investment, taxation, legal, financial, accounting, or any other related services, nor does it serve as a recommendation to purchase, sell, or hold any assets. MEXC Learn offers this information for reference purposes only and does not provide investment advice. Please ensure you fully understand the risks involved and exercise caution when investing. MEXC is not responsible for users' investment decisions.
Market Opportunity
Price()
--
----
USD
() Live Price Chart
Related Articles
View More
MEXC On-Chain Daily Report: NYSE Chooses Avalanche for Tokenized Securities Clearing — Will Wall Street Move On-Chain Faster?
Updated: November 10, 2026, 09:30 (UTC+8) | Author: MEXC Headlines River Markets affiliate completes CFTC futures commission merchant registration Qivalis receives electronic money institution
MEXC On-Chain Daily Report: Square Bitcoin Payments to Reach Over 4 Million Merchants — Will Bitcoin Payments Enter Mainstream Commerce Faster?
Updated: November 9, 2026, 09:30 (UTC+8) | Author: MEXC Headlines Square Bitcoin payments to reach more than 4 million merchants b14g has recovered about 70.2% of the stolen CORE Russia to implement
Will Anthropic Join the Nasdaq-100 or the S&P 500? How Index Inclusion Works for ANT
Every large IPO brings the same follow-up question: will index funds have to buy it? For Anthropic, the answer depends on two very different rulebooks, the Nasdaq-100's and the S&P 500's. This guide
Popular Articles
View More
Why Markets Surge and Crash: Supply, Liquidity, and Liquidation Cascades
Markets do not need a major announcement to move sharply. A price can fall while the news cycle is quiet, or rally even when there is no obvious catalyst. That is because headlines do not move prices
Merck and Moderna's Cancer Vaccine Explained: What the Phase 3 Breakthrough Means for MRKON
Summary Merck and Moderna announced a major Phase 3 clinical milestone on August 19, 2026. The INTerpath-001 trial evaluating intismeran autogene plus KEYTRUDA in patients with completely resected
What Drives MRKON Price? KEYTRUDA, WINREVAIR, Earnings and Merck Stock Explained
Summary MRKON price is fundamentally linked to MRK, the common stock of Merck & Co. That means the most important price drivers are pharmaceutical rather than crypto-native. Today, investors should
Hot Crypto Updates
View More
Crypto Exchange Netflows: 15,600 BTC Pulled in 7 Days as Supply Squeeze Looms
Overview Across the latest seven-day tracking window in early November 2026, on-chain capital flows across major centralized exchanges (CEXs) diverged sharply both between competing trading venues
U.S. October Inflation Tops Expectations as Rate Expectations Are Repriced【MEXC Alpha Trader – Daily Market Brief (November 11, 2026)】
I. Macro & Market Sentiment · Market Data: BTC $73,528.00 (-1.93%)｜ETH $2,052.19 (-3.31%)｜SOL $83.14 (-3.44%) · Market Sentiment: Funding Rate +0.0097%｜Fear & Greed Index 29 (Fear) · Inflation: U.S.
Why Did MARA Dump 13,597 Bitcoin After Q3 2026? The Real Reason
Overview Publicly traded digital energy and compute infrastructure operator MARA Q3 Form 10-Q (Nasdaq ticker: MARA) disclosed on November 9, 2026 that the company sold 13,597 Bitcoin (BTC)
BTC Spot ETFs Saw Over $1.2 Billion in Net Outflows Last Week【MEXC Alpha Trader – Daily Market Brief (November 10, 2026)】
I. Macro & Market Sentiment · Market Data: BTC $75,018.00 (-0.10%)｜ETH $2,124.17 (-0.71%)｜SOL $86.21 (-1.71%) · Market Sentiment: Funding Rate +0.0100%｜Fear & Greed Index 32 (Fear) · Rate
Trending News
View More
Why Is Eli Lilly Stock Surging? The Numbers Behind LLY’s Record High
Eli Lilly stock hit a record high after earnings. See what drove the rally, what the headline numbers hide and what LLY investors should watch.
Does the Binance Security Incident Put Your Ethereum Wallet at Risk? EIP-7702 and Wallet Delegation Explained
The Binance security incident on October 30, 2026 has pushed a relatively technical Ethereum feature into a much broader security discussion: EIP-7702 wallet delegation. For ordinary Ethereum users, h
Sign Up & Receive Up to 10,000 USDT Bonus
Join the MEXC Community
Get the latest listings, events, and updates in real time, straight from our official Telegram channel.
25k+ members
