Week 4 of May 2026 Settlement Period: May 20, 2026 – May 26, 2026 Data as of: May 26, 2026 Core Narrative Tensions on both the macroeconomic and regulatory fronts continued to escalate throughout theWeek 4 of May 2026 Settlement Period: May 20, 2026 – May 26, 2026 Data as of: May 26, 2026 Core Narrative Tensions on both the macroeconomic and regulatory fronts continued to escalate throughout the
Learn/Market Insights/Hot Topic Analysis/MEXC Alpha Trader Weekly Research Report | Bitcoin Drops Below $75,000: Rate Hike Fears vs. Policy Support—Which Force Will Prevail?
MEXC Alpha Trader Weekly Research Report | Bitcoin Drops Below $75,000: Rate Hike Fears vs. Policy Support—Which Force Will Prevail?
Week 4 of May 2026
Settlement Period: May 20, 2026 – May 26, 2026
Data as of: May 26, 2026
Core Narrative
Tensions on both the macroeconomic and regulatory fronts continued to escalate throughout the week. On May 21, the Federal Reserve published the minutes from its May FOMC meeting, confirming a key market concern: certain members have begun deliberating on "whether rate hikes should be reintroduced as a policy option should inflation remain persistently elevated." In response, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly surged past 5.10%, while the implied probability of a December rate hike reflected in CME futures climbed to 35% by midweek, marking a new high for 2026.
Crypto legislation has also seen notable progress. On May 22, Senate Majority Leader Schumer announced that the CLARITY Act would be placed on the full Senate voting agenda, with a final vote anticipated in early June. Market sentiment toward the bill's passage has shifted from "possible" to "near-certain." Nevertheless, this positive regulatory signal has proven insufficient to offset the broader macro headwinds stemming from tightening liquidity conditions.
Bitcoin remained under sustained selling pressure throughout the week. Following a brief recovery to $78,500 on May 20, the release of hawkish FOMC meeting minutes triggered a sharp reversal. By May 23, prices had broken below the key $75,000 psychological level, sliding to a low of $74,200 and marking a new low since February. Ethereum similarly lost its footing, slipping beneath the $2,000 support level to trade at $1,980. As of May 26, Bitcoin was hovering at $74,800, while the Crypto Fear & Greed Index held at 28, firmly within fear territory.
On the geopolitical front, tensions showed tentative signs of easing. On May 20, the U.S. and Iran resumed indirect negotiations in Oman, prompting international oil prices to retreat from recent highs. Brent crude dipped back below $105 per barrel, while WTI crude settled at $101 per barrel. However, markets remain cautious about the durability of any diplomatic progress, and oil prices continue to trade well above their levels from the start of the year.
In U.S. equities, NVIDIA's earnings report released on May 22 delivered mixed results, revenue modestly beat expectations, but forward guidance for the next quarter fell short of the market's most optimistic projections, triggering sharp after-hours volatility. The tokenized stock NVDAON also faced selling pressure as a result. Broadly speaking, the market continues to adjust to the "higher for longer" interest rate environment as the new normal.
I. Key Developments in the Crypto Market
1. Institutional Flows: ETF Net Outflows Slow, BlackRock Records Rare Single-Day Zero Inflow
Selling pressure across Bitcoin spot ETFs remained elevated in the early part of the week before visibly easing in the second half. According to data from Farside Investors and Coinglass, cumulative net outflows over the four trading days from May 20 to 23 totaled approximately $4.2B, with $1.8B on May 20 and $1.5B on May 21, followed by a notable deceleration to $0.6B and $0.3B on May 22 and 23, respectively. The trend reversed on May 24, when the market posted a modest net inflow of around $0.2B, marking the first positive single-day flow since May 13.
On May 22, BlackRock's IBIT recorded its first single-day zero net inflow since its launch, which is a signal that even the most committed institutional investors are opting to wait on the sidelines amid prevailing macroeconomic uncertainty. Meanwhile, Grayscale's GBTC continues to see outflows, though the pace has slowed significantly, narrowing from a peak of approximately $200 million per day to around $50 million.
As of May 26, total cumulative net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs stood at approximately $58.5 billion, a modest decline from the prior week. Ethereum ETFs continued to experience net outflows, with cumulative outflows for the week reaching roughly $120 million.
In the derivatives market, total network-wide liquidations for the week amounted to approximately $650 million, with long positions accounting for roughly 75% of the total. On May 23, Bitcoin dropped below $75,000, driving single-day liquidations to $280 million and prompting a broad reduction in overall market leverage.
2. Price Performance: Bitcoin Reaches Its Lowest Point Since February, With $75,000 as the Key Bull-Bear Threshold
This week's Bitcoin price action unfolded in two distinct phases:
- Phase 1 (May 20–22): Feeble Rebound, Secondary Decline. Following the steep sell-off the prior week, Bitcoin staged a modest recovery to $78,500 on May 20, though trading volume contracted sharply. On May 21, hawkish language leaked from the FOMC minutes triggered a swift reversal, erasing the earlier gains. By May 22, the price resumed its downtrend, sliding toward $76,000 and leaving the $75,000 support level increasingly fragile.
- Phase 2 (May 23–26): $75,000 Breached, Pressure Mounts on $74,000. During the Asian session on May 23, Bitcoin decisively broke below $75,000, hitting an intraday low of $74,200. Over the following two sessions, price consolidated within the $74,500–$75,500 range, with $75,000 transitioning from a critical support level into a near-term resistance barrier.
Ethereum continues to underperform Bitcoin, with the ETH/BTC exchange rate sliding to approximately 0.026, which is the lowest level since 2024. Solana has also broken below $85, while XRP retreated under $1.30.
Asset | Weekly Change (5/13–5/19) | Price Range |
Bitcoin | Approx. -3.2% | Approx. $74,200 – $78,500 |
Ethereum | Approx. -5.8% | Approx. $1,950 – $2,100 |
Solana | Approx. -4.5% | Approx. $82 – $90 |
XRP | Approx. -3.0% | Approx. $1.28 – $1.38 |
GOLD (XAUT) | Approx. +1.2% | Approx. $4,750 – $4,850 |
Total Crypto Market Cap | Approx. -3.0% | Approx. $2.48 – $2.58 trillion |
Data source: CoinGecko, MEXC
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's daily RSI is currently hovering near 35, still above the oversold threshold of 30, suggesting further downside potential remains. Should the $75,000 support level be decisively breached, the next key support zone would be in the $72,000–$73,000 range — an area that has held on multiple occasions since January. According to Polymarket, the probability of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 before the end of May has climbed to 22%, while the odds of it dropping below $75,000 stand as high as 89%.
3. Stablecoins: Total Market Cap Tops $322.5B as USDC Continues to Expand
The total stablecoin market cap surpassed $322.5B this week. USDT remains the dominant player with a market cap of approximately $190.5B, though its market share slipped slightly to 58.73%. USDC crossed the $80B threshold, reaching approximately $80.5B and lifting its market share to 24.8%. The sustained growth in USDC issuance underscores increasing institutional appetite for regulatory-compliant stablecoins — a trend gaining further significance as the CLARITY Act approaches its voting stage.
On May 23, Circle minted an additional 200M USDC on the Ethereum mainnet, bringing the week's total net issuance to 350M. In parallel, the total value locked (TVL) in the yield-bearing stablecoin sUSDS surpassed $12B, establishing it as one of the fastest-growing assets in DeFi.
II. Global Asset Performance
1. Equity Markets: FOMC Minutes Dampened Risk Appetite, Sending Nasdaq's Weekly Performance from Gains to Losses
The Federal Reserve officially released the minutes of its May FOMC meeting on May 21. The minutes revealed: "Some participants noted that, should inflation fail to decline as expected, the Committee may need to consider further tightening of monetary policy." Notably, this marks the first time in 2026 that the official minutes have explicitly identified "rate hikes" as a potential policy option.
Following the release of the minutes, all three major U.S. stock indexes came under pressure and retreated. By the close on May 23, the S&P 500 had declined 1.5% for the week, while the Nasdaq dropped 2.2%, snapping two consecutive weeks of gains. The semiconductor sector bore the brunt of the selloff, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index tumbling 3.5% over the week.
NVIDIA released its post-market earnings report on May 22, posting revenue of $38.2B, up 68% year-over-year and marginally ahead of the consensus estimate of $38.0B. However, its next-quarter revenue guidance of $39.0B–$40.0B fell short of the most bullish market expectation of $42.0B. In response, the stock slid as much as 3% in after-hours trading, with the tokenized NVDAON declining in lockstep. Meanwhile, Home Depot (HD) reported earnings on May 20, with same-store sales coming in below expectations, underscoring the persistent weakness in U.S. housing-related consumption amid an elevated interest-rate environment.
2. Commodities: Oil Prices Retreat from Highs; Gold Dips Before Recovering
Crude Oil: Reports on May 20 that the U.S. and Iran had resumed indirect negotiations partially alleviated market fears over potential supply disruptions. WTI crude retreated from $107/barrel at the start of the week to $101/barrel by May 23, while Brent crude declined from $112/barrel to $105/barrel over the same period. When news emerged on May 25 that the talks had stalled without a breakthrough, oil prices staged a modest recovery, with WTI rebounding to $103/barrel. On balance, crude oil prices recorded a weekly decline of approximately 4%.
Gold: Heightened rate-hike expectations weighed on gold prices this week, with COMEX gold futures briefly dipping to $4,520/oz on May 21. However, as the U.S. Dollar Index retreated from its highs (105.8 to 105.2), gold staged a recovery beginning May 23. By May 26, COMEX gold had stabilized at around $4,600/oz, posting a modest weekly gain of 0.5%. Silver outperformed, with COMEX silver closing at $79.5/oz, up 1.8% on the week.
Asset | Weekly Performance | Key Events | On-Chain Mapping |
WTI Crude Oil | Approx. $101–107/barrel | Resumption of U.S.–Iran talks pressures oil prices lower | |
Brent Crude Oil | Approx. $105–112/barrel | Uncertain negotiation progress drives volatile price action; weekly close lower | |
Gold | Approx. $4,520–4,620/oz | Rate-hike expectations clash with a softening dollar, keeping bulls and bears in a standoff | |
Silver | Approx. $78–81/oz | Continued recovery in industrial metals market sentiment lends support |
3. Bond Market: 30-Year U.S. Treasury Yields Sustain Above 5% as Rate-Hike Expectations Continue to Rise
This week, the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly surged to an intraday high of 5.12% before closing at 5.08%, firmly holding above the key 5% level. The 2-year yield climbed to 4.45%, while the 10-year yield advanced to 4.62%. The yield curve inversion widened further, reflecting ongoing market tension between a deteriorating economic outlook and persistently elevated inflation expectations.
According to CME FedWatch data as of May 26, markets are now pricing a 35% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in December 2026, along with an 8% probability of a 50-basis-point hike. Just one month ago, these probabilities stood at 2% and 0% respectively. Furthermore, markets have fully priced out any rate cuts prior to September.
Against this backdrop, the tokenized U.S. Treasury product TLTON tracking the iShares 20+ Year U.S. Treasury Bond ETF, listed on MEXC, recorded a notable increase in trading volume this week, reflecting growing user demand for hedging against interest rate risk. Meanwhile, several additional international ETF token trading pairs, including EEMON/USDT, EFAON/USDT, and INDAON/USDT, have also been officially launched on the platform.
III. In-Depth Analysis of Key Topics
Topic 1: CLARITY Act Full-Vote Countdown — Can Institutional Tailwinds Overcome Macro Headwinds?
On May 22, Senate Majority Leader Schumer officially placed the CLARITY Act on the full-Senate vote agenda, with the final vote scheduled for the week of June 2. The bill had already cleared the Senate Banking Committee 15–9 and passed the House by a decisive 294–134 margin. With broad bipartisan backing, markets widely anticipate the legislation will surpass the Senate's 60-vote procedural threshold and advance to the President for signature.
Institutional Impact on the Market:
- Regulatory Clarity Premium: The bill is set to delineate jurisdictional boundaries between the SEC and the CFTC over digital assets, with particular emphasis on defining "which tokens qualify as commodities." Previously subject to SEC scrutiny, assets such as XRP and SOL are expected to attain legally compliant status under the new framework. This has already been reflected in XRP's relative resilience this week, with the token outperforming Bitcoin.
- Reduced Entry Barriers for Traditional Financial Institutions: As the legal framework governing custody, clearing, and trade execution becomes more clearly defined, banks and registered broker-dealers will be positioned to engage in crypto-related activities on a fully compliant basis. A concentrated wave of institutional capital inflows is anticipated within 6 to 12 months of the bill's implementation.
- Divergence Between Short-Term and Long-Term Effects: In the current macroeconomic tightening environment, institutional tailwinds are more likely to serve as a "downside buffer" than an immediate "upside catalyst." Historical precedent suggests that the tangible price impact of regulatory clarity typically begins to materialize 3 to 6 months after a bill is formally enacted.
Topic 2: Fed Minutes Confirm the "Rate Hike Option" — The Rate-Expectations Reset Is Approaching Its End
The minutes from the May FOMC meeting struck a more hawkish tone than markets anticipated. Beyond explicitly keeping the "rate hike option" on the table, the minutes highlighted that the "labor market remains tight and services inflation is proving slow to ease." April core PCE data is due on Thursday, May 29, with consensus expectations pointing to a year-over-year rate that stays above 3.0%.
Potential implications for crypto assets:
- Valuation framework under strain: As zero-yield risk assets, crypto holdings are highly sensitive to shifts in real interest rates. The 30-year U.S. Treasury real yield (TIPS) has climbed from 1.8% in April to 2.1%, placing direct pressure on Bitcoin's "digital gold" narrative.
- Mounting pressure on miners: Bitcoin has pulled back to the $74,000–$75,000 range, approaching the shutdown threshold for older mining equipment (based on an electricity cost of $0.07/kWh, the breakeven shutdown price for the Antminer S19 series is approximately $72,000). A continued price decline could trigger forced selling by miners, reinforcing a negative feedback loop.
- Elevated stablecoin borrowing costs: As rate-hike expectations intensify, USDC/USDT deposit rates on on-chain lending protocols have risen from 4% to 5.5%, meaningfully raising the opportunity cost of holding spot.
Topic 3: U.S.-Iran Negotiation Window Opens, Geopolitical Risk Premium Eases Temporarily
On May 20, the United States and Iran resumed indirect negotiations brokered by the Sultanate of Oman, with the aim of securing a 60-day "cessation of hostilities" agreement and partially reopening shipping lanes through the Strait of Hormuz. The announcement triggered an immediate single-day oil price decline of over 5%. However, on May 25, Iran declared that the "U.S. proposal failed to address Iran's core concerns," bringing the talks to an abrupt stalemate and prompting a corresponding rebound in oil prices.
Market Outlook: The energy market remains caught between "optimism over diplomatic progress" and the "reality of ongoing supply disruptions." With the Strait of Hormuz closed for more than 40 consecutive days, global oil inventories are being drawn down at an accelerating rate. Even in the event of a phased breakthrough in negotiations, restoring the strait's daily transit volume of 17 million barrels to normal levels would require several additional weeks. Over the coming month, oil prices are projected to hold within an elevated range of $100 to $115 per barrel, continuing to underpin inflation.
IV. Market Hot Topic Word Cloud
Rank | Keywords | Core Drivers | On-Chain Mapping |
1 | CLARITY Act Full Vote Countdown Begins | Schumer confirmed voting is set to begin in early June; compliance expectations for tokens including XRP continue to intensify | |
2 | Fed Minutes Signal Hawkish Rate Outlook | May FOMC minutes adopt a hawkish tone; probability of a December rate hike climbs to 35% | |
3 | Bitcoin Drops Below $75,000 | Price hits its lowest point since February; fear index remains persistently around 28 | |
4 | NVIDIA Earnings Guidance Misses Market Expectations | After-hours volatility has notably increased; sentiment across the AI sector is shifting toward caution | |
5 | U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks Resume, International Oil Prices Retreat | Geopolitical risk premium is being gradually unwound, though the durability of this trend remains uncertain | |
6 | USDC Market Cap Surpasses $80B | Compliant stablecoin supply continues to grow, with an additional $350M minted this week | |
7 | ETH/BTC Ratio Drops to Lowest Level Since 2024 | Ethereum continues to lag behind Bitcoin, with its relative strength declining further |
V. Key Focus Areas for the Week Ahead
Economic Calendar (May 20–May 26, SGT)
Date | Event / Indicator | Market Impact | Tokenized Underlying |
May 28 (Thu) | U.S. April Core PCE Price Index (YoY) | A key inflation gauge expected to hold above 3%, with direct implications for the Fed's rate path | BTC/USDT, TLTON/USDT |
May 29 (Fri) | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims | A key barometer of labor market resilience | BTC/USDT |
June 1 (Mon) | China May Official Manufacturing PMI | Reflects demand momentum in the world's second-largest economy | |
Week of June 2 | CLARITY Act Senate Floor Vote | Legislation entering its final stage, with passage considered highly probable | XRP/USDT, SOL/USDT |
Ongoing | Indirect U.S.–Iran Nuclear Talks | A critical supply-side variable influencing oil price trends and inflation expectations |
Note: All tokenized assets listed above are available on the MEXC spot market. Enjoy 0-fee trading for the first 30 days following each new product listing.
VI. Platform Updates
1. Accelerated Listings: SpaceX Pre-IPO, Nexus, Samsung, and SK Hynix Perpetual Futures Launch Simultaneously
This week, MEXC significantly accelerated its listing cadence, expanding across three major tracks simultaneously: the primary market, emerging public chains, and traditional equities.
- SpaceX Pre-IPO Launchpad: On May 20, MEXC officially launched the SpaceX Pre-IPO Launchpad event, offering a total of 7,700 SPACEX(PRE) tokens at 650 USDT or USD1 each, with the subscription window open through May 21. This token grants users advance economic exposure to SpaceX's valuation with no lock-up restrictions. Once token distribution is complete, it can be freely traded on the spot market. No fees are charged at any point during the subscription or trading process.
- Nexus (NEX) Listing: On May 20, MEXC Innovation Zone officially listed the Layer 1 public chain Nexus (NEX), simultaneously launching NEX/USDT and NEX/USDC spot trading pairs alongside the NEXUSDT perpetual futures contract (supporting up to 20x leverage). The project integrates zero-knowledge verification with a native order book and has a total supply of up to 100 trillion tokens. Price volatility was notably high in the early post-listing period — Innovation Zone users are advised to carefully assess the associated risks.
- Samsung & SK Hynix Perpetual Futures: On May 20, MEXC officially launched perpetual futures for Samsung Electronics (SAMSUNGUSDT) and SK Hynix (SKHYNIXUSDT). By the close of trading that day, both South Korean chip giants posted strong gains — Samsung Electronics surged 8.51% and SK Hynix climbed 11.17%. Through these tokenized contracts, investors can trade price movements in Korea's top chip stocks directly, without the need to open an offshore brokerage account.
2. Rewards Keep Climbing: Pizza Day Unveils Dual-Track Events with Massive Prizes
In celebration of Bitcoin Pizza Day, MEXC has launched the Pizza Day Special, From the start of the event through June 5, users can enjoy 0-fee crypto purchases via Apple Pay or Google Pay; new users who make a first purchase of 100 USDT or more are eligible for a 10 USDT airdrop; and the top 300 users ranked by net purchase volume can share a 15,000 USDT leaderboard reward pool. Alongside this, MEXC is simultaneously launching the Pizza Day: Urban Run, where users earn "Pizza Vouchers" by completing daily tasks including check-ins, deposits, and trades. Regardless of which difficulty track you select, every participant is guaranteed to win, with prizes from a generous pool that includes up to 1 BTC, GOLD(XAUT), Futures bonuses, and limited-edition merchandise.
Disclaimer: This report is intended for research reference purposes only and does not constitute investment advice of any kind. Crypto asset prices are subject to high volatility, and geopolitical developments or macroeconomic shifts may significantly impact the market. Investors should exercise independent judgment based on their own risk tolerance. Any platform products or trading pairs referenced in this report are cited as objective data only and do not represent buy or sell recommendations.
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