Ethereum Price Prediction: Could a Ceasefire Trigger the Next ETH Rally? Analyst Weighs In

Ethereum reclaimed $2,150, and according to crypto expert Ted Pillows, there’s a pretty clear reason why. The market is starting to price in a potential US-Iran ceasefire. Traders are positioning for peace, and Ethereum is benefiting.

If you’ve been watching the ETH price over the past few weeks, you know it’s been a grind. But this move is different. It’s not just a random bounce. It’s a reaction to something bigger.

What the ETH chart is showing

We had a look at the daily chart, and the picture is starting to look a little more interesting. The ETH price is currently trading around $2,160, up slightly on the session. It’s been bouncing from that $2,030 support zone that held earlier this month, and now it’s working its way higher.

Daily ETH price chart analysis.

The 100-day SMA is sitting way up at $2,520, which tells you we’re still in a bearish structure. The price is well below that moving average. But ETH is holding above $2,150, and it is a positive sign. That level used to be resistance, and now it’s acting as support.

The 4-hour chart gives a closer look at the move. The ETH price is sitting at $2,160, and the 100-period SMA is down at $2,117, which is now acting as support. That’s a bullish structure on the shorter chart. The price is above the moving average, with the moving average sloping upward. Not a screaming buy, but a definite improvement.

4-hour ETH price chart analysis.

The Fibonacci levels on the 4-hour chart show resistance overhead. The 2.272 extension sits at $2,224, and the 1.272 extension sits at $2,400 is the next real target. That would be about a 10% to 12% move from current levels. Not a moonshot, but a solid recovery move.

What the ceasefire narrative means for the ETH price

Ted’s take is pretty straightforward. The market expects a US-Iran ceasefire, and it’s pricing that expectation into the ETH price right now. This is a geopolitical trade. Traders are betting that peace in the Middle East will lower oil prices, reduce inflation fears, and give risk assets like crypto room to run.

It makes sense. The ETH price has been sensitive to macro news for years, and a ceasefire would be a genuinely positive development. But Ted also drops a warning that’s worth paying attention to. During a downtrend, most peaks happen on good news. This means that, when the news finally hits, the market often sells the fact even if it bought the rumor.

So the ETH price could rally into the news, and then once the ceasefire is actually announced, we could see a sell-off. That’s the pattern. Buy the rumor, sell the news. It happens over and over again.

On-chain data shows the network strength beneath the surface

While everyone’s glued to price charts, the network itself is quietly waking up. Glassnode data shows active addresses on Ethereum climbing from about 300,000 to nearly 500,000 in recent weeks. That’s a solid jump. People are actually using the network, not just waiting for the next pump.

Transaction counts are holding steady in the 2.5 to 3 million range, which tells you there’s real demand for blockspace. The price might not be screaming higher, but the network is healthy. Usually when you see activity picking up while the price grinds sideways, it means the fundamentals are getting ahead of the market. Eventually, price tends to catch up. It just takes time.

The technical structure

The daily chart shared by Ted shows the ETH price still in a longer-term downtrend. The 100-day SMA at $2,520 is way above, and the 0.236 Fibonacci level at $2,588 is even higher. That’s a lot of overhead resistance. The ETH price needs to clear $2,400 first, then $2,500, before any real bullish structure emerges.

The RSI on the daily is sitting at 52.95, which is neutral. That’s actually a good thing. It means there’s room to run without being overbought. The 4-hour RSI is at 56.30, also neutral. So momentum is building, but it’s not stretched.

The immediate resistance is around $2,200 to $2,224. That’s the first test. If the ETH price can clear that, the next target is $2,400. That’s the 1.272 Fibonacci level on the 4-hour chart and a key psychological level.

On the downside, the ETH price needs to hold $2,150 to keep this structure intact. If it loses that, the next support is $2,030, then $1,900. Ted’s warning is worth keeping in mind. The market is pricing in a ceasefire. If it happens, the ETH price could peak on the news and then roll over. If it doesn’t happen, the rug could get pulled out from under this rally.

What comes next for ETH

The ETH price is at a crossroads. The ceasefire narrative is driving the move, and the technicals are starting to look better. But Ted’s point about peaks happening on good news is a classic market pattern. The rally could be the setup, not the payoff.

For now, the ETH price is holding above $2,150, and that’s what matters. CoinCodex’s 1-month ETH price prediction places the token at $2,454.79, pointing to a move toward the $2,400 to $2,500 resistance zone if the current ceasefire-driven momentum holds.