One magic number would likely tip US into recession: Wall Street economists

Economists cautioned whether surging oil prices and soaring tariffs amid the ongoing Iran war could tip the United States into recession and what signs could point to an economic downslide, The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday.

The Journal polled 50 economists between March 16-18 from different sectors, including Wall Street banks and small consulting firms and universities, for a survey about what they expect the economic fallout might look like amid the military conflict in the Middle East. Experts did identify one important metric that could show potential signs of economic difficulty.

"Economists put the probability of a recession in the next 12 months at 32%, up modestly from 27% in January," The Journal reported. "Asked how high crude oil would need to climb to tip the recession probability above 50%, economists gave a range of responses: from $90 a barrel to $200, with an average of $138. Asked how long oil prices would need to be at an elevated level, they said from four weeks to 55 weeks, with an average duration of 14 weeks. U.S. oil futures closed at $96.32 a barrel Wednesday, compared with a February average of about $65."

Robert Fry of Robert Fry Economics predicted that the probability of an economic downturn was at 40 percent, explaining that "$125 oil for eight weeks is his make-or-break point."

"My forecast is contingent on the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz will be fully open to tanker traffic by mid-April," Fry said. "If it isn’t, oil prices will go much higher, and I will put a recession in my forecast."