Brutal conservative analysis predicts Trump’s fractured coalition won’t survive Iran war

President Donald Trump and National Intelligence Director Tulsi Gabbard were rocked by a major bombshell when, on Tuesday, March 17, far-right MAGA Republican Joe Kent abruptly announced that he was leaving his position as director of the National Counterterrorism Center. And he didn't hesitate to say why: Kent is vehemently opposed to Trump's decision to go to war against Iran.

Kent isn't the only one on the far right who is speaking out against the war; others include author Ann Coulter, former Fox News hosts Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, and ex-Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Georgia). Kelly and Fox News' Mark Levin, who supports Trump's military strikes against Iran, are having a bitter feud.

In an article published on March 18, the American Conservative's Andrew Day argues that divisions over the Iran war could seriously damage the MAGA movement.

"First, even MAGA diehards don't seem terribly gung-ho about striking Iran, whatever they may tell pollsters," Day observes. "At an otherwise raucous Kentucky rally last week, Trump's announcement that the U.S. had 'won' the war met with awkward silence. No one denies that MAGA has stuck with Trump through numerous political scandals and likely won't turn against him now — and wouldn't have if he instead had made a deal, not a war, with Iran. But MAGA-identified voters constitute around only 15 percent of the electorate, so Trump didn't win the White House on the strength of their support alone."

Day continues, "Rather, he also won over traditional Republicans and independents. The former group is much less supportive of the Iran war than they initially had been of George W. Bush's military adventures, while the latter group is broadly opposed."

The Iran war, Day warns, could be terrible for Republicans in the 2026 midterms.

"A dip in enthusiasm from traditional Republicans and a substantial loss of support from independents would mean lights out for the GOP in this year's midterms and in 2028," Day explains. "After all, despite all the talk of a 'landslide victory' in 2024, Trump won the popular vote by a smaller margin than Hillary Clinton did in 2016. And let's not forget: Trump won't be on the ballot in future elections. Whatever personal connection he's formed with MAGA voters — and no one can deny it's a deep and abiding one —won't matter much after JD Vance or Marco Rubio take over. The next Republican nominee will face significant headwinds if the Iran war turns into a quagmire, as it seems likely to do."

Day notes that far-right MAGA influencer Laura Loomer, who he describes as an "apparent sociopath," is calling for retaliation against Republicans who, unlike her, oppose the Iran war.

In a March 15 post on X, formerly Twitter, Loomer posted, "I have created a list of Conservative influencers who I believe are taking money from Iran, Russia and Qatar. I have attached my supporting evidence. As I told the DOJ, Tucker Carlson isn’t the only person who is likely violating FARA. All of these traitors deserve jail time."

In a separate March 15 tweet, Loomer wrote, "Just so you are aware, if you suspect someone you know in the US is working on behalf of Iran or any other adversary during a time of war, you can and should report them to the FBI and DOJ. It's the America First thing to do. We need to bring back McCarthyism and start rooting out traitors."

Such rhetoric, Day observes, can only aggravate divisions within MAGA.

"Trump, without question, has created one of the most impressive populist movements in political history," Day argues. "But MAGA, to remain a significant force, needs to be a coherent ideological faction, not a personality cult, and it will need to keep independents and traditional Republicans in its coalition. Sadly, much evidence suggests that the project won't survive the war with Iran."

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