ETH Technical Analysis Feb 28

ETH market structure is currently showing a downtrend with LH/LL formation; a bullish reversal looks difficult without a break of structure (BOS) to higher levels while recent swing lows are holding.

Market Structure Overview

In the ETH/USD pair, the current market structure indicates a clear downtrend. While the price is trading at 1.924,51 USD and has recorded a slight %0,55 increase in the last 24 hours, the overall structure maintains its bearish character with LH (Lower Highs) and LL (Lower Lows) patterns. The price, continuing to stay below the short-term EMA20 (2.032,43 USD), is supported by the Supertrend indicator’s bearish signal, and the resistance level stands out at 2.286,73 USD. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were identified on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/2 resistance on 1D, 1 support/3 resistance on 3D, and 2 support/4 resistance on 1W, strengthening the overall bearish bias. This structure has given a Change of Character (CHoCH) signal by forming lower lows without breaking recent months’ higher highs; meaning the transition from uptrend to downtrend appears complete.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) formation is required. Currently, no sustained break (BOS) above the last swing high at 2.063,45 USD has occurred in ETH; as long as the price remains below this level, HH formation is not possible. The positive histogram in the MACD indicator and the RSI value near oversold at 37,96 level may trigger a short-term HL bounce, but the trend change is not confirmed without breaking above the EMA20 resistance. The potential bullish scenario begins with the price breaking above the daily high of 1.947,00 USD and testing the psychological level at 2.000 USD for HH.

Downtrend Risk

The downtrend is strongly confirmed with LH/LL: While the last swing low at 1.746,27 USD holds, new LHs have formed below the previous high of 2.148,57 USD. The price increased the LL risk by testing the daily low at 1.835,36 USD. This pattern is critical for trend continuation; if 1.746,27 USD breaks, bearish momentum accelerates with a new LL, opening the way to 1.700 USD levels. RSI dropping below 30 reinforces the CHoCH.

Break of Structure (BOS) Levels

Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) is the key to trend change. For bullish BOS to invalidate the bearish structure: The price needs to close above the last swing high at 2.063,45 USD (score 73/100) and then form a new HH; if this level breaks, 2.148,57 USD (score 63/100) is tested, and if EMA20 is passed, the uptrend begins. Conversely, for bearish BOS, a close below the 1.746,27 USD swing low (score 72/100) is required; this break confirms LL and opens the door to 1.600-1.500 USD targets. These levels are strong in MTF; resistance weight on the 1W timeframe supports the bearish outlook.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: 2.063,45 USD (main resistance, critical in LH formation) and 2.148,57 USD (secondary resistance). These levels define the bearish structure as pivot points where price was rejected. Volume increase is required for breakout; otherwise, short squeeze risk remains low. Importance: Source for BOS for HH.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: 1.746,27 USD (strong support, score 72/100) and 1.835,36 USD (daily low). These points are vital for HL tests; if they hold, bounce probability increases, but LL break triggers trend continuation. While the support role offers opportunities for long positions, it is risky under the overall structure.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is maintaining its downtrend with a %0,73 increase at 65.682,34 USD level; main supports at 64.283 USD, 62.510 USD, and 60.000 USD, resistances at 65.872 USD, 68.166 USD, 70.603 USD. BTC’s Supertrend bearish signal creates pressure on ETH due to high correlation (general altcoin dominance decline). If BTC loses 64.283 USD, ETH’s 1.746 USD break accelerates; if BTC makes BOS at 65.872 USD, ETH bounce to 2.063 USD is supported. BTC.Dominance increase strengthens ETH’s bearish structure; to watch: BTC key levels.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Overall structural outlook is bearish: LH/LL dominance, MTF resistance superiority, and pricing below EMA indicate high probability of downtrend continuation. Bullish invalidation requires BOS at 2.063,45 USD; bearish target below 1.746,27 USD. Detailed trade setups available for ETH Spot Analysis and ETH Futures Analysis. Strategy: Long/short mix at supports, waiting for BOS. Market is volatile; risk management is essential. (Word count: 1.056)