Will Ethereum price reclaim $2.5K resistance as funding rates flip positive?

Ethereum price is trying to steady itself after a rough February, but the bigger question is whether this bounce has enough strength to push through the $2,500 ceiling.

At press time, ETH was trading near $2,050, up about 3% over the past 24 hours. The move extends a week-long rebound of roughly 9%. Even so, the token is still down 30% over the past month and sits nearly 58% below its August 2025 peak of $4,946.

February started with Ethereum (ETH) trading between $2,200 and $2,400 before sellers took control mid-month. The slide accelerated around Feb. 24–25, when the price dipped toward $1,800. Since then, buyers have stepped back in, lifting the price back above the $2,000 mark.

Volatility spikes to highest level since March 2025

Derivative data shows a notable shift in positioning. According to a Feb. 26 analysis by CryptoQuant analyst PelinayPA, funding rates had remained positive for an extended period earlier this year, indicating that long traders were paying shorts.

Despite that optimism, the price failed to build a consistent rally. More recently, when short positions grew and the price faced pressure, funding went sharply negative.

Binance, which has the biggest share of global derivatives liquidity, often sets the tone during liquidation waves. The short- to mid-term trajectory of Ethereum is often affected by changes in Binance funding.

Funding has now flipped back to positive. This indicates that there is less immediate downside pressure now that many short positions have been cleared. Positive funding, however, does not prove a long-term recovery. The market could experience a long squeeze if it rises too quickly.

In a separate report, analyst Arab Chain revealed that Ethereum’s 30-day realized volatility on Binance has climbed to roughly 0.97, its highest level since March 2025.

Such high volatility often precedes a significant directional move, but if buying and selling pressure is evenly distributed, it can also occur during a prolonged period of sideways trading.

Ethereum price technical analysis

From a chart perspective, ETH is still in a clear daily downtrend, marked by lower highs and lower lows. Price recently bounced after touching the lower Bollinger Band near the $1,850–$1,900 zone. It now trades around $2,050, below key resistance areas.

Immediate support sits near $2,000, followed by the recent low between $1,850 and $1,900. On the upside, supply is clustered around $2,130–$2,150, then $2,300–$2,350.

Because it corresponds with a previous breakdown area and has psychological weight, the $2,500 level continues to be the primary structural barrier. 

Momentum is improving but not yet decisive. Following a recovery from oversold conditions, the relative strength index is close to 44.

A sustained move above 50 would strengthen the case for a shift in momentum. Bollinger Bands are starting to narrow after widening during the selloff, suggesting a possible attempt at a breakout. 

For Ethereum to recover $2,500, it must clear the $2,200 area with substantial volume and maintain above $2,000 to form a higher low. The current move might turn out to be a relief bounce inside a bigger downward structure if there is no follow-through.