Solana Price Analysis: SOL Weekly Cycle Signals Clash With Downside Risk

TLDR

• SOL rebounds near $75, a critical weekly pivot zone.
• Cycle structure suggests possible accumulation phase.
• Weekly RSI hits historic oversold with bullish divergence.
• Failure at support could expose downside toward $50.

Solana(SOL) price continues to trade near a critical weekly inflection zone as analysts analyse whether the recent rebound marks accumulation or a temporary pause. Charts highlight strong reactions around the $75 level, with some models pointing to cycle resets and others warning of deeper downside. Key scenarios now range from a recovery phase to a potential retest near $50.

Solana Price Cycle Structure Hints at Accumulation Phase

According to analyst Trader Tardigrade, the weekly Solana price structure reflects cyclical repetition seen in prior bull market setups. His chart shows an extended period of horizontal consolidation, where price repeatedly defended a clearly defined support band. Such sideways action after an impulsive move often signals re-accumulation rather than trend failure.

A notable feature is the rounded cycle low formation beneath price. Historically, similar rounded bases formed near major support before strong upside expansions. In the current case, Solana briefly dipped below support, swept liquidity, and then reclaimed the level. This sequence suggests seller exhaustion rather than sustained bearish control.

From a broader perspective, the projected structure implies a transition into a new bullish cycle if support holds. The recent drawdown is framed as a structural reset within a larger trend. As long as reclaimed support remains intact, the broader Solana price trend is considered technically alive.

Momentum Data Flags Historic Oversold Conditions

Meanwhile, Inmortal’s weekly RSI-focused chart shifts attention to momentum rather than price structure. The most significant signal is Solana reaching its lowest weekly RSI reading on record. Historically, such extreme momentum compression has appeared near macro bottoms rather than mid-trend pullbacks.

Price action shows Solana price retracing into a long-term demand zone that previously acted as resistance. More importantly, a positive divergence is forming. While price made lower lows, RSI failed to confirm similar weakness. This divergence indicates that selling pressure is weakening beneath the surface.

Inmortal’s view suggests a mean reversion phase could follow once momentum resets. Deeply oversold weekly RSI conditions, combined with historical demand, often precede trend reversals. Although timing remains uncertain, downside risk appears to be compressing rather than expanding.

Macro Caution Remains as Key Support Faces Pressure

In contrast, analyst Crypto Tony presented a more conservative macro outlook. The chart highlights Solana reacting to the $75 support level, a historically important pivot between bullish and bearish regimes. The current bounce confirms buyer interest, but structural confirmation remains absent.

Unlike the cyclical models, this view emphasizes the lack of a confirmed higher low on the weekly timeframe. Price remains below prior resistance, and the broader structure still resembles a macro downtrend. Lower highs continue to dominate the technical landscape.

The analyst’s projected scenario includes a potential move toward the $50 zone. That zone aligns with prior consolidation and high-value demand from earlier cycles. The analysis stresses patience and risk management, noting that reactive bounces alone do not define a durable macro bottom for Solana price.

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