Cardano hits 2023 lows: How $3B loss fuels fear over ADA

The recent crash has pushed risk assets back toward critical levels.

However, while some assets have only pulled back to pre-election ranges, several major high-caps have slipped to multi-year lows, making any meaningful recovery “relatively” more challenging in the near term. 

Cardano [ADA] is one such high-cap. Down roughly 20% so far in 2026, ADA has slipped back to Q3 2023 price levels, drifting further away from the elusive $1 mark it surrendered during the post-election cooldown.

In practical terms, the probability of a FOMO-driven expansion is fading.

Notably, this technical weakness is now feeding into the fundamental narrative. In a recent interview, Cardano founder Charles Hoskinson revealed paper losses exceeding $3 billion across his crypto holdings.

More importantly, the pace of drawdown is accelerating. The figure marks an increase of $500 million in unrealized losses since early January, when Hoskinson reported a $2.5 billion deficit, reinforcing the fragile backdrop.

And yet, Hoskinson continues to advocate a long-term HODL stance, raising a key question: Is his “conviction” in ADA strong enough to sustain FOMO, or will the nearly $3 billion in losses instead deepen fear?

ADA faces a key test between conviction and fear

The timing of Hoskinson’s interview carries notable risk.

From a sentiment standpoint, the disclosure could either strengthen confidence or trigger the opposite reaction, undermining holder trust as the market absorbs the scale of roughly $3 billion in unrealized losses.

That’s where ADA’s technical positioning becomes especially important. As outlined earlier, the altcoin has broken down to multi-year lows, dragging its dominance back toward the COVID-era at under 0.5% of the crypto market.

From a technical standpoint, this drop in dominance further highlights ADA’s structural weakness compared to its major rivals, pointing to fading capital rotation and limited participation in the current market cycle. 

Within this fragile setup, Hoskinson’s disclosure of his paper losses could further pressure market confidence, dampening FOMO and increasing the risk of a move toward fresh multi-year lows below the $0.20 region.

If this trend holds, Cardano’s “ghost chain” narrative may regain traction. In that light, the $3 billion in unrealized losses appear less like a bottoming signal and more like the early stage of a broader downside cycle.

Final Thoughts

• Down 20% in 2026, multi-year lows breached, dominance near 0.5%, highlighting ADA’s structural weakness and fading market participation.
• Hoskinson’s $3 billion paper losses may dampen FOMO and strengthen the “ghost chain” narrative, increasing the chance of further downside below $0.20.