Bitcoin (BTC) price recovery still faces macro risks: Crypto Daybook Americas

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

Friday’s crypto markets are a sea of green, bouncing from yesterday’s brutal drubbing in a classic oversold rebound. But real risks linger, threatening any lasting recovery.

Bitcoin has climbed back to $65,000 after flirting with $60,000, with BlackRock ETF action hinting at capitulation, that is, long-term holders dumping at a loss, often the bear market’s final gasp. The broader market has perked up, too, with XRP, SOL, ETH and other tokens regaining some poise, while the CoinDesk 20 Index added nearly 9% since midnight UTC.

Still, put options on bitcoin remain in demand, signaling persistent downside fear. It makes sense for a couple of key reasons: First, macro risks have eased, but aren’t gone. President Donald Trump signed a funding bill Tuesday to end the government shutdown, but the Department of Homeland Security cash runs dry in eight days, which means there could be another circus by Feb. 14.

Meanwhile, oil prices are buoyant on both sides of the Atlantic on concerns the Iran-U.S. tensions will escalate. A spike there could add to global inflation, triggering a flight to safety and hammering risk assets like crypto.

Most critically, the recent crash has pushed many holders and digital-asset treasuries underwater. Many of those may capitulate and become marginal sellers in the market, potentially capping rallies. Plus, confidence tends to rebuild only slowly after a crash, which is why snapback recoveries always crawl.

These things taken together indicate that the market may not be out of the woods yet. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • Feb. 6, 8:30 a.m.: Canada unemployment rate for January (Prev. 6.8%)
  • Feb. 6, 10 a.m.: Canada Ivey PMI index for January (Prev. 51.9)
  • Feb. 6, 10 a.m.: U.S. Michigan Consumer Sentiment preliminary for February (Prev. 56.4); Michigan inflation expectations (Prev. 4%)
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Feb. 6: Chainlink to host an X Spaces session on “Building with the Chainlink Runtime Environment.”
• Unlocks
  • Feb. 6: Hyperliquid HYPE$33.49 to unlock 2.79% of its circulating supply worth $287.68 million.
  • Feb. 6: BERA$0.3875 to unlock 41.7% of its circulating supply worth $26.87 million.
• Token Launches
  • Feb. 6: MOVA (MOVA) to be listed on LBank, BingX, KuCoin, MEXC and others.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is up 4.55% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $66,022.00 (24hrs: -6.74%)
• ETH is up 4.14% at $1,924.90 (24hrs: -7.3%)
• CoinDesk 20 is up 4.75% at 1,905.03 (24hrs: -7.49%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 39 bps at 3.48%
• BTC funding rate is at -0.0142% (-15.5862% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is unchanged at 97.81
• Gold futures are down 0.19% at $4,880.30
• Silver futures are down 4.39% at $73.35
• Nikkei 225 closed up 0.81% at 54,253.68
• Hang Seng closed down 1.21% at 26,559.95
• FTSE is up 0.01% at 10,309.76
• Euro Stoxx 50 is up 0.27% at 5,941.80
• DJIA closed on Thursday down 1.20% at 48,908.72
• S&P 500 closed down 1.23% at 6,798.40
• Nasdaq Composite closed down 1.59% at 22,540.59
• S&P/TSX Composite closed down 1.77% at 31,994.60
• S&P 40 Latin America closed down 1.01% at 3,616.07
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1.8 bps at 4.192%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.3% at 6,841.00
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.36% at 24,740.50
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are up 0.16% at 49,075.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 58.77% (+0.47%)
• Ether-bitcoin ratio: 0.02917 (0.43%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 913 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $29.76
• Total fees: 5.59 BTC / $377,330
• CME Futures Open Interest: 115,230 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 13.5 oz.
• BTC vs gold market cap: 4.4%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows bitcoin’s weekly price swings in candlestick format since 2019.
• Prices are rapidly approaching their average over 200 weeks, represented by the red line.
• BTC has consistently put in bear-market bottoms around this average, suggesting the current pullback could be in its final stages.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $146.12 (-13.34%), +5.97% at $154.84 in pre-market
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $50.23 (-8.76%), +5.40% at $52.94
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $16.84 (-16.47%), +6.35% at $17.91
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $24.90 (-8.46%), +3.98% at $25.89
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $6.73 (-18.72%), +6.39% at $7.16
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.06 (-14.71%), +5.14% at $12.68
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $14.81 (-8.27%), +1.99% at $15.11
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.27 (-19.13%), -3.33% at $7.99
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.23 (-12.56%), +2.24% at $36.02
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $9.42 (-11.96%), -1.27% at $9.30

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $106.99 (-17.12%), +6.71% at $114.17
• Strive (ASST): closed at $9.86 (-16.75%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.07 (-14.27%), +4.12% at $6.32
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.09 (-19.85%), +7.34% at $1.17
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $0.95 (-10.27%)

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$434.1 million
• Cumulative net flows: $54.3 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.27 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$80.8 million
• Cumulative net flows: $11.86 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~5.87 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping

Bitcoin surges back above $65,000 after $700 million wipeout in Asia whipsaw (Coindesk): Bitcoin rebounded above $65,000 after its worst one-day drop since November 2022. About $700 million in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated in a few hours,

Stocks reel as AI fears dominate market action (Reuters): Global markets retreated as a stock rout on Wall Street spread worldwide, with volatility gripping precious metals and cryptocurrencies while AI fears weighed on equities.

Weak earnings drag IREN, Amazon; bitcoin stocks rebound in pre-market (CoinDesk): IREN earnings were weaker than expected, while Amazon missed EPS estimates and beat on revenue.

Big tech to spend $650 billion this year as AI race intensifies (Bloomberg): The high spending projections raise concerns about energy supplies, prices, and the potential distortion of economic data, raising questions about whether the companies can afford the costs.