OSL Trading Time: Bitcoin Bull-Bear Game, Ethereum Shows Initial Signs of Recovery

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, BTC, MiCA

As the end of the year approaches, the market is full of expectations and disagreements about Bitcoin's performance in the next few years. MicroStrategy co-founder Michael Saylor disclosed that the company holds 444,000 Bitcoins, with a total value of approximately US$41.4 billion, and hinted at further purchase plans. El Salvador continues to increase its holdings, and currently has more than 6,000 Bitcoin reserves, worth US$569 million. However, Bitcoin has difficulty maintaining the $100,000 support level, and sideways fluctuations have increased market uncertainty.

Crypto strategists predict that the Bitcoin bull run may end in a high-profile way. Blockware Solutions predicts that Bitcoin may climb to $150,000 to $400,000 by 2025, an optimistic forecast driven by Federal Reserve policy, corporate adoption and Trump's strategic Bitcoin reserve plan. NBA legend Scottie Pippen is even bolder, pointing to Bitcoin's next key target price of $1 million. But the market is not all optimistic. Some analysts warn that Bitcoin may adjust in the short term and even fall to $76,000. In addition, Bill Gates continues to be skeptical of Bitcoin, criticizing its lack of productivity and believing that it has hidden dangers as an asset class. Whether the United States will include Bitcoin in its financial reserves remains controversial, and the balance between dollar hegemony and cryptocurrency opportunities remains to be seen.

In the Ethereum market, futures data showed that selling pressure eased and signs of recovery began to emerge. At the same time, after Ethereum transferred 200,000 ETH to Kraken, some old-fashioned crypto wallets that had been silent for many years became active again, indicating that the crypto market is nurturing hope amid volatility. The crypto world is still full of unknowns, but it also indicates that the next moment of change is coming.

2. Key data (as of 09:05 HKT on December 30)

• S&P 500: 5,970.84 (+25.18% year-to-date)
• Nasdaq: 19,722.03 (+31.38% year-to-date)
• 10-year Treasury yield: 4.626% (+74.51 basis points this year)
• US Dollar Index: 108.00 (+6.86% year-to-date)
• Bitcoin: $934,00.96 (+120.99% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $30.27 billion
• Ethereum: $3,380.99 (+48.19% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $13.93 billion

3. ETF flows (December 27 EST)

• Bitcoin ETF: -$297.75 million

• Ethereum ETF: +$47.77 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

ISM Manufacturing PMI (January 3, 11:00 p.m.)

• Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 48.4% / Expected: 48.3%

5. Hot News

This week’s preview | FTX claims processing will begin on January 3, 2025; Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) takes effect

Macro Outlook This Week: Markets tend to remain calm during the New Year's Day holiday, but economic data may slap the Fed in the face

Report: 51 countries/regions prohibit crypto assets, and some economies regulate them by adjusting laws or re-legislating

Hamster Kombat to build L2 blockchain on TON chain

FLock announces token economics and airdrop plan: 66.7% allocated to the community and ecosystem

German FDP Chairman Calls for Bitcoin and Other Cryptocurrencies to be Included in Central Bank Reserves

Data: SUI, OP, ZETA and other tokens will be unlocked in large amounts next week, of which SUI unlocks about $270 million

Tether CEO retweets several tweets saying USDT will not be deemed illegal in Europe on December 30

Modular blockchain Sophon completes mining migration and opens mainnet mining

El Salvador's Bitcoin reserves reach 6,000, worth about $569 million

VIRTUAL's market value exceeds $3.428 billion, surpassing TAO and rising to 47th place in the cryptocurrency market value ranking

ai16z initiated a proposal to upgrade the token economics model and proposed to launch Launchpad

Michael Saylor: 60 companies hold more than 590,000 BTC

Galaxy Research Annual Forecast: BTC will exceed $150,000 in the first half of the year, and ETH will exceed $5,500

The IRS requires DeFi brokers to report digital asset sales proceeds and collect user transaction information starting in 2027

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