Bitcoin (BTC) closed its weekly candle at $76,931 on Sunday, causing BTC to lose its 100-week moving average for the first time since October 2023. Analysts are now weighing whether the move marks the early stages of a bear market and what this shift may mean for Bitcoin’s recovery in the long term.
Key takeaways:
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Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below the 100-week simple moving average, a trend linked with multi-month drawdowns.
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Past breaks below the weekly trend lasted between 182 and 532 days.
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Heavy spot volume between $85,000 and $95,000 may turn that zone into a major resistance area.
Bitcoin slips below a long-term weekly trend
Bitcoin closed a weekly candle below its 100-week simple moving average (SMA), which sits near $87,500. This marks a loss of a key macro trend level for BTC.
Crypto proponent Brett noted that, aside from the 2020 COVID-19 flash crash, Bitcoin has spent extended periods below the 100-week SMA. During the 2014 to 2015 cycle, BTC remained under the level for 357 days as prices ranged between $200 and $600 following the 2013 bull market peak.
Bitcoin days below the 100W SMA. Source: Brett/XIn 2018 to 2019, the period lasted 182 days, coinciding with the bear market bottom between $3,000 and $6,000.
In 2022, Bitcoin spent 532 days below the 100-week SMA after the FTX collapse, consolidating between $16,000 and $25,000.
Each instance led to an accumulation phase rather than a quick rebound, suggesting time may again be the key factor before the next bullish period.
USDT dominance and $85,000 resistance raise bear market risk
Crypto analyst Sherlock said a bear market may emerge after the USDT dominance chart posted a weekly close above 7.2%. In past cycles, a close above 6.7% confirmed bearish conditions, making the recent breakout, its first in more than two and a half years, particularly significant.
USDT dominance chart analysis by Sherlock. Source: XThe analyst highlighted $85,000 as a key resistance zone. More than $120 billion in spot volume was traded between $85,000 and $95,000 in Q4, 2025, leaving many BTC holders underwater. With BTC near $78,000, any rally toward $85,000 may face steady selling pressure as the traders may look to exit at breakeven, with the realized price of one-to-three-month holders currently at $91,500.
Bitcoin realized price of 1m-3m holder cohorts. Source: CryptoQuantRelated: BTC price heads back to 2021: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
BTC fractal structure mirrors dip from 2022
Bitcoin’s weekly structure is showing similarities to the 2022 dip. At that time, BTC formed lower highs, lost the 100-week SMA, and failed to sustain a recovery before moving into a deeper correction.
BTC/USDT one-week chart with head and shoulders pattern. Source: TradingViewA similar pattern is now visible in 2026. If the fractal continues, Bitcoin may revisit the $40,000 to $45,000 range, an established demand zone. While fractals are not predictive, the setup suggests downside risk remains elevated unless Bitcoin decisively reclaims the 100-week SMA.
Related: Saylor’s Strategy buys $75.3M in BTC as prices briefly dip below $75K
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