CryptoQuant CEO Signals Bitcoin Downtrend, Warns Of Sideways Consolidation Amid Profit-Taking Phase

Institutional-grade data and analytics platform CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju shared his market outlook on social media platform X, highlighting that Bitcoin is experiencing continued downward pressure as selling persists and new capital inflows have largely disappeared. 

He noted that while a severe 70% crash similar to prior cycles is unlikely without selling from MicroStrategy’s Michael Saylor, the market has not yet established a clear bottom and may enter a prolonged period of sideways consolidation.

According to him, Bitcoin’s recent decline is driven by sustained selling pressure combined with a lack of fresh investment, as reflected in the Realized Cap, which has remained flat. In such an environment, any drop in market capitalization is not indicative of a bullish trend. 

Early holders, who accumulated Bitcoin through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and MicroStrategy purchases, have been realizing profits since early 2025, and while strong inflows previously helped keep the price near $100,000, those inflows have now largely ceased.

MicroStrategy played an important role in supporting the prior rally, and Ki Young Ju suggested that unless Michael Saylor liquidates his holdings, a collapse of the magnitude seen in past cycles is improbable. Nevertheless, ongoing selling activity indicates that the market bottom remains uncertain, with a bear market likely to transition into an extended sideways range.

He highlighted that Bitcoin had entered a profit-taking phase in November 2025, with the PnL Index—which measures profit and loss across all wallets based on cost basis—signaling a potential entry into a bear cycle. He added that only significant macroeconomic liquidity could offset this natural profit-taking phase, similar to the market conditions observed in 2020.

Bitcoin Falls Below $80K Amid $1.6B ETF Outflows As Macro And Geopolitical Risks Weigh On Markets

As of the latest trading session, Bitcoin is priced at $76,731, reflecting a decline of more than 2.17% over the past 24 hours, with intraday lows reaching $74,567 and highs at $79,117, according to CoinMarketCap data. The cryptocurrency fell below $80,000 on Saturday, marking the first time it has traded under that level since April 2025.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced large net outflows during the final week of January, totaling approximately $1.49 billion, with Thursday alone accounting for $818 million, the largest single-day withdrawal of the month. Overall, January 2026 saw roughly $1.6 billion in total net outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, representing the third-worst month on record for these investment products.

The decline pushed Bitcoin briefly below MicroStrategy’s cost basis of $76,037 per coin, a level not breached since October 2023. ETF flows indicate that institutional investors were reducing overall exposure to cryptocurrencies rather than reallocating between assets, a departure from earlier in the month when Ethereum inflows partially offset Bitcoin weakness.

The selloff accelerated following the nomination of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh as the next chair, which markets interpreted as a bearish signal for risk assets. Additional geopolitical developments, including reports of an explosion at Iran’s Bandar Abbas port and a brief US government shutdown, further contributed to a cautious, risk-off environment.

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