BTC Stuck Below 50 Day EMA as Gold Rally & Dollar Strength Drain Momentum

• Bitcoin fails to hold above $89,000 as the dollar posts its largest single day gain since November, pulling risk appetite from crypto markets.
• Spot outflows reach $80.24 million on January 29, confirming sellers continue to distribute while price remains stuck below the 50 day moving average.
• Recovery requires a close above $90,073, with downside risk toward $85,000 if the ascending trendline breaks.

Bitcoin price today trades near $88,200 after rejecting the $89,000 resistance zone for the third time this month. The move follows a sharp dollar rebound and continued strength in gold, which topped $5,500 an ounce earlier this week. BTC remains roughly 30 percent below its October peak while metals and equities sit near record highs.

Dollar Rebound And Gold Rally Overshadow Crypto

The macro backdrop has turned unfavorable for risk assets. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed the administration’s strong dollar policy on Wednesday, triggering the biggest single session gain in the dollar index since November.

That move came after the Federal Reserve held rates steady, signaling patience before any further cuts. The combination of a firmer dollar and record gold prices has pulled capital toward traditional safe havens, leaving Bitcoin sidelined.

Analysts note that BTC continues to trade like a high beta risk asset rather than a macro hedge. While gold surged 15 percent and silver jumped 30 percent during the dollar’s decline earlier this month, Bitcoin failed to participate meaningfully in that rotation.

Spot Outflows Confirm Distribution Pattern

Exchange flow data reinforces the cautious sentiment. Coinglass recorded $80.24 million in net outflows on January 29, extending a pattern of steady distribution that has persisted through much of January.

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When spot flows turn negative during consolidation, it typically signals that holders are reducing exposure rather than accumulating. The lack of inflows despite price stabilization near $88,000 suggests buyers remain hesitant to step in ahead of key resistance.

EMA Cluster Caps Upside As Structure Weakens

On the daily chart, Bitcoin trades below all major exponential moving averages. The 20 day EMA sits at $90,073, the 50 day at $91,134, the 100 day at $94,550, and the 200 day at $98,327. That stacked resistance creates a ceiling that buyers have failed to breach since early January.

The Supertrend indicator remains bearish at $94,850, confirming the broader downtrend. Price action shows repeated rejections near $89,000, where the round number resistance aligns with the 50 day moving average zone.

An ascending trendline from the December lows near $85,000 has provided support through January. That structure remains intact, but the narrowing range between trendline support and EMA resistance points to a resolution in the coming sessions.

Intraday Momentum Struggles To Build

On the 30 minute chart, Bitcoin trades near session VWAP at $88,228 after slipping from the upper band at $88,601. RSI has dropped to 40.48, reflecting fading momentum after the early session attempt above $89,000.

The lower VWAP band at $87,855 marks immediate support. A break below that level would expose the ascending trendline near $87,500, where bulls need to defend to maintain the short term structure.

Intraday price action shows lower highs since the January 28 peak at $90,000, reinforcing that sellers control short term direction until buyers can reclaim the $89,000 zone with conviction.

Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?

The trend remains bearish while price trades below the EMA cluster, but the ascending trendline keeps the structure from turning into a full breakdown.

• Bullish case: A daily close above $90,073 would flip the 20 day EMA into support and signal the first step toward reclaiming the broader trend. That move would open a path toward $94,500 and the 100 day EMA.
• Bearish case: Losing the ascending trendline near $87,500 would invalidate the consolidation structure and expose the $85,000 demand zone. A break below that level targets $82,000.

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