TWT Technical Analysis Jan 28

Volume story – what participation tells us about conviction

Volume Profile and Market Participation

TWT’s 24-hour trading volume was realized at the 4.24 million dollar level. This volume shows medium-level participation compared to recent weekly averages; for example, the average volume of the previous 7 days was around the 3.5-5 million dollar range. No significant increase in volume was observed during the price’s 5.71% daily rise, indicating that the upward movement occurred without broad market participation yet. For a healthy rise, volume should be at least 20-30% higher during price rises, but here volume does not fully confirm the price. This situation shows that market participants are cautious and lack conviction (determination). When examining the volume profile, the formation of Value Area High (VAH) in the 0.88-0.90 band stands out; this region may be an equilibrium point tested by institutions. Low-volume sideways movements may imply that big players are quietly adjusting their positions.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Accumulation signals in TWT are supported particularly by the price holding above the short-term EMA20 (0.88$) and neutral RSI (51.06). Volume decreases are observed during down moves (declines); for example, in the last downward wave, volume stayed 40% below average, indicating weak selling pressure. Price recovery without high-volume spikes resembles the early stages of the accumulation phase (Wyckoff accumulation phase). MTF volume levels (9 strong levels on 1D/3D/1W) carry potential for volume increase at supports (0.8851, score 78/100). This suggests smart money (smart money) buying from low levels, but no certainty – just volume patterns leaning toward accumulation.

Distribution Risks

Distribution warnings come from the overall downtrend, bearish Supertrend (resistance 0.99$), and negative MACD histogram. Lack of volume confirmation in up moves (only 4.24M volume in 5.71% rise) suggests it could be a retail-focused rally. If volume decreases as it approaches resistance levels (0.9855, score 64/100), distribution risk increases. Volume divergence seen in recent weeks – volume increase while price falls – may imply institutions closing positions. This pattern mimics shakeouts before the mark-up phase; caution is advised.

Price-Volume Harmony

Price action is partially confirmed by volume, but divergences exist. Volume remained at medium levels during the daily +5.71% rise, which is insufficient for a healthy bullish continuation. Healthy volume pattern requires increase during rises and decrease during falls. Here, holding above EMA20 is low-volume, short-term bullish but with weak conviction. Despite bearish MACD, RSI at 51 is neutral; examining the volume histogram, momentum lags behind volume. Volume test at key levels (support 0.8851) is critical: high-volume hold is bullish confirmation, low-volume break is bearish. Overall, price is leading volume – may be unsustainable.

Big Player Activity

Institutional-level activity concentrates around POC (Point of Control) at around 0.90 in the volume profile; this is a level balanced by whales. Spike volumes in the last 24 hours (if any) do not indicate large transfers according to wallet trackers, but in MTF, 3 resistance levels on the 1W timeframe are supported by volume. Big players typically accumulate positions in low-volume tests; TWT’s EMA20 bounce within the downtrend fits this profile. For whale accumulation signals, volume delta analysis: positive delta (buying pressure) is seen in short-term up moves. However, exact positions cannot be known – patterns only show institutional interest. Check detailed data in TWT Spot Analysis and TWT Futures Analysis.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at 89,367$ level with +1.56% in downtrend; Supertrend bearish and rising dominance is a caution signal for altcoins. TWT is highly correlated with BTC (typically 0.85+); if BTC supports (88,340$, 86,075$) break, pressure increases on TWT 0.8851 support. If BTC resistances (89,498$, 91,311$) are broken, TWT bullish target 1.1245$ opens. Currently, BTC weakness is limiting TWT’s rise – volume should increase on BTC dominance decline. Key BTC levels: break below 88k could trigger distribution for TWT.

Volume-Based Outlook

Volume-based outlook: Short-term bullish bias (above EMA20), but wait for downtrend confirmation. For bullish target 1.1245$, volume should increase +50%; bearish risk of low-volume drop to 0.6000$. Strategy: Wait for volume spike at 0.8851 support, long if high; short if low. Monitor volume divergences – tilt toward accumulation, but BTC risk high. Educational note: Volume tells the hidden story of price; volume confirmation is essential for conviction. Overall, cautious accumulation outlook, wait for expansion.