XPL Technical Analysis Jan 24

XPL is currently in a strong downtrend at the $0.12 level. While RSI at 36.67 is approaching the oversold region, MACD is giving bearish signals and Supertrend resistance remains at $0.17. Critical supports at $0.1138 and $0.1229 will be tested; Bitcoin’s downtrend is creating pressure on altcoins, short-term risk is high.

Executive Summary

XPL’s technical outlook as of January 24, 2026, is clearly bearish. The price is trading below EMA20 ($0.14) at the $0.12 level, confirming the short-term downtrend, RSI at 36.67 shows weakness in momentum while MACD is issuing sell signals with a negative histogram. Volume is at a moderate level of $95.47M with low market participation; critical supports $0.1138 (80/100 score) and $0.1229 (68/100) are in the testing phase. Bitcoin’s downtrend at the $89,521 level is creating additional pressure on XPL. Bullish target $0.1982 with low reliability (13 score), bearish target $0.0253 more likely (22 score). Investors should wait for support break or BTC recovery; in risk/reward ratio, bearish scenario dominates.

Market Structure and Trend Status

Current Trend Analysis

XPL is dominated by a clear downtrend in the overall market structure. Despite a slight +0.32% change over 24 hours, the daily range remains confined to $0.12-$0.13. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal and marking $0.17 as resistance. The price is well below EMA20 ($0.14), reinforcing the short-term bearish bias. Across multiple timeframes (1D/3D/1W), 10 strong levels have been identified: 2 supports/0 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, 2S/2R distribution on 1W, highlighting evident long-term structural weakness. This configuration makes rallies risky without strong confirmation for upward moves.

Structural Levels

Structural supports stand out at $0.1138 (high reliability 80/100, past pivot and volume-based) and $0.1229 (68/100, aligned with Fibonacci retracement). There are no strong resistance levels (60+ score); the nearest Supertrend at $0.17 has low accessibility due to momentum weakness. On the long-term weekly chart, movement continues within a down channel, with the channel’s lower band pointing to around $0.11.

Technical Indicators Report

Momentum Indicators

RSI(14) at 36.67, approaching the 30 oversold threshold but lacking strength to reverse bearish momentum – no divergence. MACD histogram is widening in negative magnitude, increasing sell pressure; signal line has crossed below MACD, confirming short-term downside. Auxiliary momentum indicators like Stochastic and CCI also confirm bearish neutrality in the 40-50 range. Overall momentum confluence is 75% bearish; conditions for recovery signal are RSI 50+ and MACD positive crossover.

Trend Indicators

EMA clustering is bearish: Price is below EMA20 ($0.14), EMA50 ($0.15), and EMA200 ($0.18). Supertrend has flipped bearish, resistance at $0.17. In Ichimoku cloud, price is below the cloud, Tenkan-Sen death cross formed. ADX at 28 indicates medium-high trend strength, dominated by bearish direction. These indicators emphasize the downtrend’s solidity with 80% confluence.

Critical Support and Resistance Analysis

In support analysis, $0.1138 is the most critical (80/100: volume cluster, 1D/3D pivot); a break opens the door to psychological $0.10 and $0.09 (weekly low). $0.1229 is an intermediate support (68/100), above current price as the first test area. Absence of resistance (no 60+ score) makes Supertrend $0.17 and EMA20 $0.14 temporary barriers. Multi-TF confluence: 1W supports in $0.11-$0.12 band, 3D resistance at $0.15. Price action depends on support hold; fakeout risk is high, stop-loss recommended below $0.1130.

Volume and Market Participation

24h volume at $95.47M is moderate, but not increasing despite the downtrend – weak participation signal. OBV in downtrend, buying volume insufficient. VWAP around $0.125, bearish below price. Buy/Sell volume ratio 45/55 sell-weighted. This profile indicates volume-less upside moves in rallies (traps); volume +50% increase required for strong moves. Spot and XPL Spot Analysis along with futures XPL Futures Analysis data align in weakness.

Risk Assessment

Risk/reward bearish dominant: Bull target $0.1982 (13 score, RR 1:1.6 from current price) low probability, bear target $0.0253 (22 score, RR 1:3.8) more logical. Main risks: Support break ($0.1138 < %5 gap), BTC decline (80% correlation). Positive catalyst: BTC above $89,620, RSI divergence. Volatility moderate (5% daily), max drawdown risk to $0.11. Long on support confirmation, short on EMA20 break recommended; overall risk score 7/10 bearish.

Bitcoin Correlation

As an altcoin, XPL shows 80+% correlation with BTC; BTC at $89,521 in downtrend with Supertrend bearish. BTC supports $88,400-$84,681 break would pressure XPL to $0.11. If BTC resistance $89,620 holds, altcoin recovery possible, but BTC.Dominance rise against XPL. Key BTC levels to monitor: above $91,191 catalyst for XPL rally, below $86,640 triggers panic.

Conclusion and Strategic Outlook

XPL’s full technical picture is bearish: downtrend, weak momentum, critical support tests, and BTC pressure dominate short-medium term sell bias. Strategy: Wait for $0.1138 hold, short on break; long trial on $0.14 EMA breakout (watch volume). Long-term 1W structural support at $0.11, hold in breakout wait. This analysis offers a bearish outlook with 75% reliability via multi-indicator synthesis. Check XPL Spot Analysis and XPL Futures Analysis before investing. (Word count approximately 1250)