HBAR Technical Analysis Jan 23

Volume story – what participation tells us about conviction

Volume Profile and Market Participation

HBAR’s 24-hour trading volume reached 66.09 million dollars, which is about 40% below the 7-day average volume. While the price declined by 2.03% in the downtrend, this low participation in volume indicates weak selling pressure. Market participation is generally subdued; particularly in the 1D timeframe, the volume profile shows a concentrated POC (Point of Control) in the $0.1068-$0.11 range. This level stands out as one of the last 12 strong MTF volume levels (1D: 2 support/1 resistance, 3D: 2S/2R, 1W: 2S/4R) and forms a strong holding point with a $0.1028 support score of 78/100. Low-volume declines reflect a lack of conviction – the price is moving on its own, but without volume confirmation. For a healthy decline, volume is expected to increase, but here it’s the opposite: even in upward moves, volume remains dry. This suggests dominant retail selling, with big players waiting on the sidelines. The wide VAH (Value Area High) in the volume profile points to $0.1161 resistance, while the VAL (Value Area Low) forms a base at $0.1028. A positive signal from BTC is needed to boost participation.

Accumulation or Distribution?

Accumulation Signals

Volume has gradually decreased in recent declines; during the drop from $0.11 to $0.1068, volume stayed 30% below average, a classic accumulation sign. Although the price is below EMAs (EMA20: $0.11), with RSI at 40.56 approaching oversold, there is volume divergence: price makes new lows, but volume does not. In the 1W timeframe, 2 strong support levels (around $0.1028) show low-volume tests supporting institutional accumulation. The bull target level $0.1475 (score 30) appears reachable with accumulation at this base. Verify the low spreads in the spot market by checking HBAR Spot Analysis – ideal ground for accumulation.

Distribution Risks

Although volume slightly increases in resistance tests ($0.1161, score 63/100), conviction is low; MACD is bearish with a negative histogram, but there is no volume explosion on upward rejections. 4 resistance levels in 1W signal a potential distribution trap. If the $0.13 Supertrend resistance is not broken and upside occurs without volume increase, there is shakeout risk. Bearish target $0.0710 (score 22) could be triggered on a high-volume breakdown.

Price-Volume Alignment

Although the price is in a downtrend (Supertrend bearish), volume does not confirm the decline: volume is 25% low on down days, neutral on up days. This divergence shows the price declining without volume – in a healthy decline, volume should increase. RSI at 40.56 is neutral, but volume-price divergence gives a bullish hint. In MTF, 12 strong levels carry bounce potential at $0.1028 with volume confirmation. Unhealthy volume: price decline cannot be sustained with low participation, reversal signal.

Big Player Activity

Big players (whales) are silent in low-volume ranges; in the 3D timeframe, 2 support/2 resistance reflect institutional footprint. No naked POCs in the volume profile, meaning block trades are hidden. No volume spike in the last 24h, but increasing on-balance volume (OBV) divergence at $0.1068 signals hidden buying. Exact positions cannot be known, but low retail volume indicates institutional waiting. Follow HBAR Futures Analysis in futures – open interest is low, long/short imbalance favors accumulation.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $89,119 with -0.96% decline in downtrend (Supertrend bearish), supports at $88,363-$84,681. HBAR is 0.85% correlated to BTC; if BTC dominance increases, alts get pressured. If BTC breaks $90,046 resistance, HBAR relieves to $0.1161, otherwise tests $0.1028. BTC key levels: if support holds, HBAR accumulation strengthens.

Volume-Based Outlook

Although volume shows low participation, divergences favor accumulation. Long if $0.1028 holds, short if broken. Wait for positive BTC signal. Outlook: Neutral-bullish, volume spike as reversal trigger.