The deepening of the MACD histogram in the negative area on AVAX and the RSI remaining under neutral pressure at the 40 level indicate that short-term momentum has turned in favor of bears; however, the slight increase in volume could trigger dip buyers.
Trend Status and Momentum Analysis
AVAX is trading at the $12.43 level as of January 22, 2026, and has recorded a limited 1.14% increase in the last 24 hours. The daily range stayed within the 11.88-12.73 band, and volume was at a moderate level of 269.87 million dollars. The overall trend continues as downtrend, the Supertrend indicator gives a bear signal, and the $14.65 resistance level forms a strong barrier. Short-term momentum is weak due to failure to hold above EMA20 ($13.25); as long as the price remains below this level, seller pressure maintains its dominance. The confluence of momentum oscillators is gathering in the bearish alignment of RSI and MACD, indicating that trend strength has not yet recovered. In the medium term, 9 strong levels detected in multiple timeframes (MTF) – 2 supports/1 resistance on 1D, 1 support/2 resistances on 3D, and 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W – offer critical thresholds. The $11.26 (score:66/100) and $12.16 (65/100) supports along with $12.745 (73/100) resistance should be monitored as momentum change points. Although volume confirmation is weak, the increase in recent sessions may give an accumulation signal, but it’s not sufficient within the downtrend.
RSI Indicator: Buy or Sell?
RSI Divergence Analysis
RSI (14) is currently positioned at 40.27, reflecting a slight oversold tendency in the neutral zone, but not dropping below 30 indicates that sellers have not fully taken control. No regular bearish divergence has been observed recently; while price makes new lows, RSI has not formed higher lows, implying that momentum has not exhausted. The search for hidden bullish divergence continues, but there is no clear signal on the current chart – the price shows consistent decline with RSI hovering near 38 at the 11.88 low. If RSI recovers toward 50, this could signal short-term relief within the downtrend, but more consolidation is needed for divergence formation while bearish momentum dominates. The long-term 1W RSI is around 45, confirming overall weakness.
Overbought/Oversold Zones
RSI at 40.27 is far from oversold (below 30), which carries risk for early dip buyer entries. Previous sessions saw quick pullbacks from overbought zones near 70; now, the 50 line has become a critical threshold. In momentum confluence, RSI strengthens the bearish bias alongside MACD; a drop below 30 could bring new bearish targets ($7.99, score:22) into play, while a crossover above 50 could open the door to bullish targets ($17.27, score:26).
MACD Signals and Histogram Dynamics
MACD is in bearish position, with the signal line below the MACD line and the histogram deepening in the negative area. Histogram bars have shown an expansion tendency recently, confirming strengthening bear momentum – despite the +1.14% rise in 24 hours, the histogram’s failure to approach the zero line indicates sellers are preserving their reserves. No signal line crossovers; the histogram’s continuation of negative momentum after the bearish crossover is critical for measuring trend strength. On the 1D timeframe, the MACD histogram is around -0.15, and deeper at -0.28 on 3D; this dynamic suggests short-term recoveries will remain limited. The negative histogram supported by volume reinforces the distribution pattern – 269 million dollars in volume is insufficient to confirm the rise.
EMA Systems and Trend Strength
Short-Term EMAs
Price is trading below EMA20 ($13.25), clarifying the short-term bearish bias. The EMA ribbon is contracted, indicating weakening trend strength – compression between EMA10 and EMA20 signals momentum loss. If price breaks above EMA20, ribbon expansion could trigger bullish momentum, but the current position supports the downtrend.
Medium/Long-Term EMA Supports
EMA50 (around $14.10) and EMA200 (around $16.50) act as distant supports functioning as resistances; as price moves away from these levels, long-term trend strength turns in favor of bears. Ribbon dynamics show weakness with EMAs sloped downward in the medium term – combined with Supertrend’s $14.65 resistance, consolidation is expected before testing EMA support.
Bitcoin Correlation
Bitcoin is maintaining its downtrend with a limited +0.46% rise at the $89,982 level; Supertrend’s bearish signal carries high risk for altcoins. AVAX shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); if BTC breaks its $89,070 and $87,264 supports, AVAX could slip below $11.26. Conversely, if BTC surpasses $91,034 resistance, relief could come for AVAX, but BTC dominance is suppressing altcoin momentum. Follow BTC levels closely for AVAX Spot Analysis and AVAX Futures Analysis.
Momentum Outcome and Expectations
Overall momentum confluence is bearish: RSI at 40.27 under neutral pressure, MACD confirming bear strength with negative histogram expansion, EMA ribbon downward-sloping, and volume confirmation weak. In the short term, unless $12.745 resistance is broken, the 12.16-11.26 support band could be tested; this zone, combined with MTF levels, is a key point for momentum change. In a bullish scenario, monitor RSI crossover above 50 and MACD histogram approach to the zero line, targeting $17.27. On the bearish side, histogram deepening could bring $7.99 into play. Momentum recovery is difficult without volume increase; BTC’s downtrend limits altcoins. Continue monitoring the market, remain cautious until oscillator confluence changes.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/avax-rsi-macd-analysis-january-22-2026-momentum-evaluation
