Arnav Pagidyala: Ethereum and Solana will dominate by 2026, Solana’s community culture enhances its ecosystem, and Robinhood is set to surpass Coinbase

Key takeaways

• Ethereum and Solana are expected to solidify their positions as leading blockchain platforms by 2026.
• General-purpose blockchain networks will find it challenging to compete with the established network effects of Ethereum and Solana.
• Solana is gaining favor among developers and consumers, positioning itself as a key player in the blockchain space.
• A shift in Ethereum sentiment is anticipated, driven by improvements in metrics and institutional interest.
• The Solana Foundation’s proactive approach in supporting builders and onboarding institutions is a key factor in its ecosystem’s success.
• The value of a blockchain’s token may not directly reflect the value created by the chain itself.
• Solana and Ethereum are expected to attract significant builder activity and liquidity, enhancing their asset performance.
• Solana must continue to innovate to maintain its competitive edge in the blockchain landscape.
• Robinhood is predicted to surpass Coinbase by 2026 due to its rapid product development.
• Coinbase may pivot its strategy to focus more on becoming a bank replacement rather than emphasizing creator coins.
• The crypto exchange market is becoming more competitive, with new entrants emerging due to favorable regulations.
• Privacy-preserving KYC technologies are expected to become standard across various applications, enhancing security and compliance.

Guest intro

Arnav Pagidyala is a Partner at Bankless Ventures, an early-stage Web3 venture capital fund focused on backing 0-to-1 companies across DeFi, consumer, and fintech. He spent three years at HashKey Capital, one of Asia’s largest crypto funds, where he invested in companies spanning onchain commerce, smart contract compliance, and MEV solutions. With over five years focused on permissionless finance and blockchain infrastructure, Pagidyala brings deep conviction on how blockchains will underpin payments, commerce, and digital services.

Ethereum and Solana’s competitive landscape

• “The duopoly of Ethereum and Solana will become clear in 2026.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Ethereum is seen as the “slow risk defi chain for real world assets money markets.”
• Solana is moving towards a “decentralized Nasdaq vision.”
• “Ethereum and Solana are targeting different markets, which will entrench their duopoly.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Ethereum’s focus is on real-world asset tokenization and financial markets.
• Solana is positioned as the platform for consumer crypto and user experience.
• “By 2025, general-purpose chains will struggle to disrupt the network effects of Ethereum and Solana.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Solana’s appeal to developers and consumers is growing, making it a preferred platform.

Solana’s strategic advantages

• “The Solana Foundation’s hands-on approach to onboarding institutions and supporting builders contributes significantly to its ecosystem’s success.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Solana’s community culture, including active content creation, enhances its ecosystem’s vibrancy.
• “The cultural aspect of the Solana community plays a crucial role in its ecosystem’s vibrancy.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Solana’s proactive support for builders distinguishes it from other blockchain foundations.
• “Solana must work hard to maintain its position in a competitive landscape with emerging chains.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The Solana Foundation’s strategy includes direct engagement with institutions and developers.
• Solana’s focus on consumer goods and user experience sets it apart from Ethereum.
• “Solana is becoming the preferred platform for founders and consumers in the blockchain space.” – Arnav Pagidyala

Ethereum’s evolving role

• “There will be a strong reversal in Ethereum sentiment driven by improvements in various metrics.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Ethereum is positioned as the “real world asset tokenization Wall Street chain.”
• The market has not yet reached a consensus on Ethereum’s valuation, with estimates varying widely.
• “Ethereum could potentially become a canonical store of value in the future.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Ethereum’s network effects and institutional interest are expected to drive positive sentiment.
• “Ethereum and Solana both have structural issues, but their network effects are so strong that they continue to thrive independently.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The potential for Ethereum to become a store of value is still being debated.
• “The market has not yet figured out how to value Ethereum.” – Arnav Pagidyala

Robinhood vs. Coinbase

• “Robinhood is likely to gain a lead over Coinbase by 2026 due to its rapid product development and market performance.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Robinhood’s user experience is highly appealing to millennials and Gen Z.
• “Coinbase may abandon the content coin narrative and shift towards becoming a bank replacement.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Robinhood’s focus on user-friendly interfaces gives it a competitive edge.
• Coinbase might develop separate apps to better serve its banking ambitions.
• “Coinbase might develop two separate apps to better serve its banking ambitions.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The competition between Robinhood and Coinbase highlights the importance of user experience in fintech.
• “Robinhood’s user experience is superior in the personal finance world, appealing strongly to younger generations.” – Arnav Pagidyala

The future of crypto exchanges

• “The barrier to competition in the crypto exchange market is decreasing, allowing new players to emerge.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Centralized exchanges face challenges from wallets with better fiat on-ramps.
• “Wallets will increasingly compete with centralized exchanges, potentially disrupting their market dominance.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The shift towards decentralized systems is expected to reshape the crypto exchange landscape.
• “Centralized exchanges will lose power as the entire capital stack moves on-chain.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Centralized exchanges are incentivized to list high-quality assets to ensure their survival.
• “Centralized exchanges will be incentivized to list good assets under more favorable terms.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The economics of owning the front end in crypto are extremely lucrative.

Privacy and security in crypto

• “Privacy preserving KYC technologies can prevent data leaks while allowing verification.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Privacy-focused projects struggle due to a lack of concern for privacy among new users.
• “Privacy-focused projects in crypto are struggling to gain traction due to a lack of concern for privacy among new users.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Privacy-preserving KYC is expected to become a standard in various applications.
• “Privacy preserving KYC will become a standard across various emerging applications.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The adoption of privacy-preserving technologies addresses key security concerns in crypto.
• The potential for privacy-preserving KYC to enhance compliance and security is significant.
• “Privacy preserving KYC will become a standard across various emerging applications.” – Arnav Pagidyala

Institutional interest in blockchain

• “Institutions will increasingly recognize the importance of building on chains with deep network effects this year.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Traditional financial institutions are exploring decentralized options while preferring controllable chains.
• “Traditional financial institutions prefer chains they can control, but they are also exploring decentralized options.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The adoption of blockchain technology by traditional finance is expected to grow.
• Institutions are recognizing the strategic importance of blockchain network effects.
• “Institutions will increasingly recognize the importance of building on chains with deep network effects this year.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The balance between control and decentralization is a key consideration for traditional finance.
• “Traditional financial institutions prefer chains they can control, but they are also exploring decentralized options.” – Arnav Pagidyala

The impact of AI on crypto development

• “The introduction of AI tools like Opus 4.5 is enabling smaller teams to build and deploy smart contracts more effectively.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• AI advancements are reducing technical barriers in crypto development.
• “The technical barriers to building in crypto are diminishing, shifting the competitive edge towards distribution.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The role of AI in enhancing innovation and reducing development costs is significant.
• AI tools are enabling more teams to participate in the crypto space.
• “The introduction of AI tools like Opus 4.5 is enabling smaller teams to build and deploy smart contracts more effectively.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The shift towards distribution as a competitive edge reflects changing industry dynamics.
• “The technical barriers to building in crypto are diminishing, shifting the competitive edge towards distribution.” – Arnav Pagidyala

The future of ICOs and DeFi

• “I am very bullish on ICOs in 2026 and beyond.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• ICOs can drive community involvement and increase liquidity if executed correctly.
• “ICOs can drive community involvement and increase liquidity if done correctly.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The role of launchpad platforms in curating ICO projects is crucial.
• The potential for ICOs to enhance market activity and user engagement is significant.
• “I am very bullish on ICOs in 2026 and beyond.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The success of ICOs depends on effective project curation and community engagement.
• “ICOs can drive community involvement and increase liquidity if done correctly.” – Arnav Pagidyala

The evolution of DeFi platforms

• “Morpho has a clean risk isolation architecture that makes it compelling for institutions.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Morpho’s market structure is simplified, making it attractive for institutional adoption.
• “Morpho’s market structure is simplified to five key components, making it attractive for institutions.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• Aave v4 is evolving towards a structure similar to Morpho’s, indicating a shift in the DeFi landscape.
• “Aave v4 is evolving towards a structure similar to Morpho’s, indicating a shift in the DeFi landscape.” – Arnav Pagidyala
• The focus on risk isolation and simplicity is a key trend in DeFi development.
• Morpho’s architecture highlights the importance of risk management in DeFi.
• “Morpho has a clean risk isolation architecture that makes it compelling for institutions.” – Arnav Pagidyala