Risk aversion boosts gold, hurts bitcoin (BTC) price: Crypto Daybook Americas

Crypto Daybook Americas will be on hiatus for a while starting Wednesday. We’ll be back Jan. 5 with your regular wake-up call of what stirred the industry overnight and what’s coming up in the day ahead. Wishing you and yours a wonderful holiday season!

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)

The crypto market mood remains somber ahead of the U.S. GDP data report due later today, which is expected to show the world’s largest economy held firm in the third quarter.

Bitcoin BTC$87,497.82, the largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell to $87,500 after failing to hold gains above $90,000 on Monday. All 16 CoinDesk indexes are down over 24 hours, with the DeFi Select index dropping 4% and the metaverse index losing over 3%. HASH and RAIN are the only top-100 tokens by market cap to have gained more than 6% over the past 24 hours.

The overall weak tone is confounding, given the continued decline in the dollar index, which generally bodes well for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. The DXY has dropped below 98.00 and is on the verge of hitting its lowest since early October.

“It is noteworthy that this occurred against the backdrop of a decisive rally in gold and other precious metals, as well as the momentum of the weakening dollar. This once again highlights the change in the underlying attitude to risk, which is also confirmed by the sell-off of global bonds,” Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, said in an email.

“In the coming weeks, we can expect an even more pronounced decline in cryptocurrencies, as well as the spread of risk aversion to stocks and currencies of developing countries,” he said.

At 8:30 a.m., the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis will unveil its preliminary estimate for the third-quarter gross domestic product. Most economists forecast an annualized 3.2% growth rate for the period, with some eyeing a print as high as 3.5%.

Figures like these indicate a slowing from the second quarter’s 3.8% pace, yet still comfortably exceed the 2.6% average maintained since late 2021.

A weaker-than-expected print could reignite demand for BTC, though it will be interesting to see whether it sustainably lifts prices above $90,000, a level that has acted as a ceiling lately.

In traditional markets, futures tied to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq are little changed, indicating a lack of directional clarity at the opening bell. Historically, these indexes have fared well during the final days of the year.

Gold’s rally continues, with the metal approaching $4,500 per ounce. Meanwhile, the yen strengthened against the dollar on speculation the Bank of Japan could intervene in FX markets to stall the currency’s recent slide. Stay alert!

Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today

What to Watch

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Crypto
• Macro
  • Dec. 23, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Oct. Durable Goods Orders MoM Est. -1.5%; Ex. Transport MoM Est. 0.3%; Ex. Defense MoM (Prev. 0.1%).
  • Dec. 23, 8:30 a.m. U.S. Q3 PCE Prices QoQ (second estimate). Headline Est. 2.9%; Core Est. 2.9%.
  • Dec. 23, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Q3 GDP (initial estimate) (Prev. 3.8%).
  • Dec. 23, 10 a.m.: Dec. CB Consumer Confidence Est. 92.
• Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)

Token Events

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

• Governance votes & calls
  • Yearn DAO is voting to rotate multisig signers (YIP-89) and enact a yETH recovery plan (YIP-90) that utilizes Treasury yield, a 10% revenue redirect, and forfeited claims to repay users. Voting ends Dec. 23.
  • GMX DAO is voting to seed the new GMX-Solana deployment with $400,000 USDC, using half to buy GMX tokens to create a balanced initial liquidity pool. Voting ends Dec. 23.
  • Aave DAO is voting to reclaim full ownership of brand assets, including domains, social handles, and naming rights, from service providers like Aave Labs, transferring them to a DAO-controlled entity to prevent private misuse. Voting ends Dec. 26.
• Unlocks
• Token Launches
  • Dec. 23: Aster’s stage 5 buyback program Starts.

Conferences

For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead”.

Market Movements

• BTC is down 0.44% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $87,638.35 (24hrs: -2.41%)
• ETH is down 0.2% at $2,967.13 (24hrs: -2.47%)
• CoinDesk 20 is down 0.3% at 2,717.75 (24hrs: -2.16%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 4 bps at 2.84%
• BTC funding rate is at 0.0046% (5.0315% annualized) on Binance

• DXY is down 0.39% at 97.90
• Gold futures are up 1.04% at $4,516.00
• Silver futures are up 1.66% at $69.70
• Nikkei 225 closed little changed at 50,412.87
• Hang Seng closed down 0.11% at 25,774.14
• FTSE is little changed at 9,869.30
• Euro Stoxx 50 is little changed at 5,742.58
• DJIA closed on Monday up 0.47% at 48,362.68
• S&P 500 closed up 0.64% at 6,878.49
• Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.52% at 23,428.83
• S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.77% at 32,000.10
• S&P 40 Latin America closed up 0.42% at 3,100.71
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 2.6 bps at 4.145%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures are unchanged at 6,932.75
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are unchanged at 25,706.00
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average Index futures are unchanged at 48,687.00

Bitcoin Stats

• BTC Dominance: 59.58% (unchanged)
• Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.03388 (-0.24%)
• Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 1,051 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $37.27
• Total Fees: 2.55 BTC / $227,479
• CME Futures Open Interest: 112,885 BTC
• BTC priced in gold: 20.8 oz
• BTC vs gold market cap: 5.86%

Technical Analysis

• The chart shows solana’s SOL$123.25 daily price swings in candlestick format.
• The token price recently broke below the weekslong sideways consolidation pattern only to bounce back on the following day, trapping bears on the wrong side of the market.
• That’s a classic “Wyckoff spring action,” pointing to seller fatigue, often the first sign of an impending trend reversal higher.
• The bullish reversal, however, needs confirmation in the form of a break above the upper boundary of the channel formation.

Crypto Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Monday at $247.9 (+1.13%), pre-market down 0.57% to $246.49
• Circle Internet (CRCL): closed at $87 (+1.01%), -1.44% at $85.74
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $24.61 (+2.54%), -0.49% at $24.49
• Bullish (BLSH): closed at $45.52 (+2.06%), -2.16% at $44.58
• MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $10.13 (-0.49%), -0.79% at $10.05
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $14.4 (-0.69%), -0.14% at $14.38
• Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $15.79 (+1.22%), -0.16% at $15.77
• CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $12.1 (+0.58%), -0.91% at $11.99
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $42.18 (+2.63%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $15.77 (+1.68%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): closed at $164.32 (-0.3%), -0.45% at $163.52
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $17.41 (2.9%), unchanged
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $9.57 (-2.45%), -0.52% at $9.52
• Upexi (UPXI): closed at $1.99 (-4.33%), -1.01% at $1.97
• Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.41 (-1.4%), unchanged

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

• Daily net flows: -$142.2 million
• Cumulative net flows: $57.25 billion
• Total BTC holdings ~1.31 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Daily net flows: $84.6 million
• Cumulative net flows: $12.55 billion
• Total ETH holdings ~6.09 million

Source: Farside Investors

While You Were Sleeping