Bitcoin is flashing mixed signals as long term momentum cools, while sentiment hits rare oversold levels. Analysts say the next key closes could decide whether BTC stabilizes or slides into a deeper downturn.
Two week RSI break could shift Bitcoin into a bear phase
Bitcoin faces a key momentum test on higher timeframes, according to analyst Rekt Fencer, who said a break in the two week RSI support could push the market into a deeper downturn.
Bitcoin Two Week RSI Support Test. Source: TradingView / X
In a post on X, Rekt Fencer said Bitcoin is “about to enter bear market zone” if BTC breaks a specific RSI level. The two week BTCUSD index chart shows the RSI hovering near the low 40s, a zone that has acted as a floor in past cycles. He argued that losing that level would leave little technical support, and he set $50,000 as the likely downside target.
The chart also marks a prior instance in 2022 when RSI fell below a similar range before Bitcoin dropped toward the cycle low. By contrast, the 2023 recovery followed only after RSI reclaimed the area and held above it.
Bitcoin has already pulled back from its 2025 peak, while RSI kept sliding, which signals weakening momentum even as price stayed relatively high. The next two week close will determine whether RSI holds the support zone or confirms a breakdown.
Long term cycle indicator shifts toward late stage
Meanwhile, Bitcoin may be entering a late cycle phase, according to analyst Titan of Crypto, as a long term momentum indicator shows conditions that previously aligned with market tops.
Bitcoin Monthly SOTT Cycle Indicator. Source: TradingView / X
In a post on X, Titan of Crypto pointed to the SOTT indicator on the monthly Bitcoin U.S. dollar index chart, noting that it has turned purple. Historically, this shift appeared near or shortly after major cycle peaks, rather than during early or mid cycle expansions. He questioned whether the current cycle is following the same pattern.
The chart highlights several past Bitcoin tops, including 2013, 2017, and 2021, where price reached cycle highs as SOTT transitioned into similar colors. In each case, the indicator reflected slowing momentum after extended rallies, followed by prolonged consolidation or drawdowns. The current signal appears while Bitcoin trades near record levels, raising concerns about whether upside momentum is fading.
At the same time, the indicator does not pinpoint exact tops. Previous cycles showed price volatility after the signal, with Bitcoin continuing higher for periods before confirming a broader reversal. As a result, the reading suggests a shift in cycle conditions rather than an immediate price breakdown.
Titan of Crypto framed the signal as a warning that Bitcoin may be closer to the later stages of its cycle than the beginning. With multiple long term indicators now showing cooling momentum, the chart suggests that the market is approaching a phase where risk increases and trend strength weakens, even if price remains elevated in the near term.
Fear and Greed index hits historical extreme
Bitcoin may be approaching a short term relief phase, according to analyst James Easton, as sentiment indicators fall to levels rarely seen in past cycles.
Bitcoin Weekly Fear and Greed Index Extremes. Source: TradingView / X
In a post on X, James Easton said Bitcoin’s Fear and Greed index has dropped to a zone reached only four times before. The weekly BTCUSD chart shows those prior instances aligned with periods of heavy pessimism, when sentiment fell into extreme fear while price traded well below recent highs.
The chart highlights similar moments in 2018, 2020, and 2022. In each case, the Fear and Greed index dipped into deeply oversold territory before Bitcoin staged strong rebounds over the following weeks or months. Easton stressed that those moves did not always mark absolute cycle bottoms, but they consistently preceded meaningful upside reactions.
Currently, the index sits near the low end of its historical range, while Bitcoin trades below recent peaks after a sharp pullback. Easton said the market appears stretched to the downside, with sentiment compressed even as long term structure remains intact. He noted that conditions like this often limit further immediate selling pressure.
Easton cautioned that oversold readings alone do not confirm a trend reversal. Still, he said the data suggests that risk may be shifting away from aggressive downside continuation toward at least a short term bounce. As a result, the chart points to sentiment exhaustion rather than renewed panic, with history showing that similar setups rarely persisted for long without a relief move.
Source: https://coinpaper.com/13223/bitcoin-bear-alarm-or-bounce-setup-three-charts-flag-the-next-move
