Descending Trendline Holds as Netflows Fail to Confirm Recovery

• Bitcoin remains capped below a dominant descending trendline, with lower highs keeping structure corrective.
• Spot netflows show only brief inflows, failing to confirm sustained accumulation during rebounds.
• EMA resistance between $86,600 and $89,300 continues to reject upside attempts, keeping pressure on support.

Bitcoin price today trades near $87,000, stabilizing after a sharp midweek selloff pushed price to its weakest levels since early November. While buyers managed to defend the $85,000 zone, the broader structure remains fragile as Bitcoin continues to trade below a dominant descending trendline and a heavy overhead EMA cluster.

Spot Flows Show No Strong Accumulation Signal

Bitcoin spot flow data continues to reflect caution rather than accumulation. On December 19, net inflows registered a modest $30.97 million, coinciding with a short-lived rebound toward $87,500. However, that figure stands in contrast to the broader trend of persistent net outflows seen throughout November and December.

Multiple sessions over the past month recorded daily net outflows exceeding $200 million, highlighting steady distribution during rallies. Even as price attempts to stabilize, capital has largely moved back onto exchanges rather than into cold storage.

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This behavior matters. When price rebounds without sustained positive netflows, upside moves tend to fade quickly. The latest bounce followed that pattern, stalling well below prior resistance.

Descending Trendline Continues To Define Structure

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains pinned beneath a clearly defined descending trendline drawn from the October highs. Each recovery attempt since then has failed below this level, reinforcing it as a structural ceiling rather than a temporary barrier.

The Supertrend indicator remains bearish, with resistance near $97,000, far above current price. Parabolic SAR dots also remain above the candles, signaling that trend conditions have not flipped.

Structurally, the market continues to print lower highs. Until that sequence breaks, rallies remain corrective rather than trend-forming.

Intraday Charts Highlight EMA Resistance

Shorter timeframes reinforce the same message. On the 2-hour chart, Bitcoin is trading below the major EMAs, which are tightly stacked between $86,600 and $89,300.

This EMA cluster has acted as firm resistance throughout the week. Each push into this zone has been met with selling pressure, forcing prices back toward the mid-$80,000 range. The repeated failure to reclaim even the 20 EMA highlights a lack of follow-through from buyers.

As long as price remains trapped beneath this cluster, upside attempts lack confirmation.

The Chaikin Money Flow reading on the 2-hour chart remains slightly negative, hovering just below the zero line. While this shows that selling pressure has eased from its peak, it also confirms that capital inflows are not yet dominant.

Macro Catalyst Fails To Shift Risk Sentiment

Bitcoin saw a brief uptick after the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, the highest level in nearly three decades. The move was widely anticipated, and market reaction remained muted.

The Japanese yen weakened following the announcement, slipping to 156.03 per U.S. dollar, while Bitcoin rose briefly from $86,000 to $87,500 before pulling back. Fears of a rapid unwind in yen-funded carry trades failed to materialize.

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While the decision removed a key macro downside risk, it did not trigger fresh risk-on flows into crypto. Monetary conditions in Japan remain accommodative relative to the U.S., limiting the immediate impact on global liquidity.

Outlook. Will Bitcoin Go Up?

The market is at an inflection point, but confirmation is missing.

• Bullish case: A daily close above the descending trendline and a reclaim of the $97,000 level would signal trend stabilization and open the door for a move back toward six-figure territory.
• Bearish case: Failure to hold the $84,000 support zone would confirm that the current bounce is only a pause, not a base, exposing deeper downside toward the low-$80,000 range.