The market tends to believe that the interest rate cutting cycle of European central banks is about to end.
PANews, December 17th - Traders are increasingly inclined to believe that the rate-cutting cycle by European central banks has largely ended. Money markets indicate that the European Central Bank, the Swedish central bank, and the Norwegian central bank are expected to keep interest rates unchanged at their meetings tomorrow and maintain broadly stable rates until the end of 2026. Even the Bank of England, which is expected to cut rates on Thursday, is only fully priced in one more rate cut next year, despite weaker inflation data released on Wednesday increasing the likelihood of another cut. This contrasts sharply with market sentiment earlier this year, when the market widely expected European central banks to cut rates significantly by 2026. Similarly, the Swiss National Bank, which previously led the way in rate cuts and lowered rates multiple times, has paused its rate cuts, and rates are now at zero. "Many of these countries have already cut rates multiple times – policy rates are no longer tightening," said Mike Riedel, a fund manager at Fidelity International. "The most notable change in interest rates over the past month is that some central banks that previously led the rate cuts are now expected to raise rates, rather than continue cutting them."
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