Analysts Watch Rare Signal as BTC Nears Key Levels

Bitcoin extended its recent pullback on Tuesday, trading near the mid-$86,000 area after failing to regain short-term resistance.

While price action remains heavy, a growing number of technical and macro indicators are drawing attention to zones that have historically preceded major turning points for the asset.

The latest move comes as volatility stays elevated and leverage continues to unwind across derivatives markets. According to liquidation data, roughly $186 million in Bitcoin positions were wiped out over the past 24 hours, with the vast majority coming from long positions. The imbalance highlights how aggressively traders had positioned for upside before the recent correction.

On the technical front, momentum indicators suggest selling pressure is still dominant in the short term. On the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index has dropped into the low-30s, hovering close to oversold territory, while the MACD remains deeply negative, signaling that bearish momentum has yet to fully reset.

Bitcoin Versus Gold Sends Rare Signal

One of the more unusual developments is emerging from Bitcoin’s relative performance against gold. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe noted that the RSI on the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has fallen below 30, a level reached only three times in Bitcoin’s history. Each previous instance coincided with major cycle lows in 2015, 2018, and 2022.

While van de Poppe cautioned that history never repeats perfectly, he argued that such extreme readings often highlight a significant valuation imbalance. In his view, gold appears stretched relative to Bitcoin, increasing the likelihood of a rotation back into BTC if macro conditions stabilize.

Long-Term Charts Highlight Structural Inflection Zone

From a broader perspective, long-term cycle indicators are also flashing caution – but not necessarily outright bearishness. Data shared by Alpharactal shows Bitcoin trading very close to its 2-year simple moving average, currently around $82,800.

Historically, sustained monthly closes below this level have marked extended bear market phases. However, repeated defenses of the 2-year SMA have often acted as a structural base, setting the stage for renewed accumulation. Analysts note that the next few weekly and monthly closes will be critical in determining whether Bitcoin holds this long-term anchor or slips into a deeper corrective regime.

Crypto Rover, meanwhile, highlighted that Bitcoin is approaching what he describes as a “likely bottom zone” on long-term valuation models. He suggested that dollar-cost averaging strategies begin to make more sense in this range, especially as price cools from previously overheated conditions.

ETF Flows Turn Sharply Negative

Adding to the cautious tone, US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded significant net outflows on December 15. Combined data shows total net outflows of approximately $357.6 million for the day.

The largest redemptions came from BlackRock’s IBIT, which saw around $230 million exit the fund. Fidelity’s FBTC and Bitwise’s BITB also posted notable outflows, while several other issuers recorded smaller but consistent withdrawals. The data suggests that institutional demand paused sharply after intermittent inflow days earlier in the month.

Despite the negative headline number, some market participants note that ETF flows have remained highly volatile, alternating between strong inflows and sudden outflows, rather than showing a sustained trend in either direction.

Gold-Bitcoin Resistance and the Bigger Picture

Crypto Rover also pointed to a long-standing resistance zone on the gold/Bitcoin chart, noting that past rejections from this area have often preceded powerful Bitcoin rallies. According to his analysis, a confirmed shift away from gold dominance could act as a tailwind for BTC once broader risk sentiment improves.

For now, Bitcoin remains caught between weakening short-term momentum and long-term indicators that are approaching historically important levels. With ETF flows turning negative and leverage still being flushed out, analysts broadly agree that patience will be required before a clearer directional signal emerges.

The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo.com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Related stories