Pendle Eyes $2 Support Test After Polychain Capital’s Loss-Making Exit

• Pendle faces prolonged downtrend since rejection 6.2 months ago, hitting $2.02 low.

• Daily drop of 4.1% reflects consistent whale distribution over 30 days.

• Polychain Capital sold 4.114 million PENDLE for a $3.99 million loss, per on-chain data from EmberCN.

Pendle price analysis reveals bearish trends and whale exits driving further declines. Discover key insights on support levels and potential recovery signals to stay ahead in crypto investments.

What Is Driving the Pendle Price Decline?

Pendle price has been under significant pressure, trading at approximately $2.17 after a sharp rejection nearly 6.2 months ago. The token has navigated a steep downtrend, culminating in a low of $2.02, with a monthly loss of 18.5% highlighting ongoing bearish sentiment. Long-term holders, including institutional players, appear to be reaching capitulation amid persistent selling.

Since facing rejection nearly $6.2 months ago, Pendle traded inside a steep downtrend, eventually dropping to a $2.02 low.

At press time, Pendle traded around $2.17, down 4.1% daily and nearly 18.5% monthly, reflecting sustained bearish pressure.

That prolonged weakness appeared to push long-term holders, including institutions, toward capitulation.

Why Did Polychain Capital Exit Its Pendle Position?

Despite Pendle recording brief recoveries over the past month, whale behavior stayed consistent, leaning toward heavy distribution. CryptoQuant’s Spot Average Order Size indicated Big Whale Orders persisted for nearly 30 consecutive days, pointing to steady large-player activity in the market.

Source: CryptoQuant

One prominent example is Polychain Capital, as tracked by on-chain monitor EmberCN. The firm had accumulated roughly 4.114 million PENDLE tokens between March and September at an average price of about $3.16, investing approximately $13 million in total. However, after holding for several months, Polychain decided to exit the position entirely.

Source: EmberCN

Approximately four months later, Polychain sold its holdings at around $2.19 per token, resulting in an estimated loss of $3.99 million. This move underscores a broader sentiment shift, where initial optimism gives way to caution under extended market downside. Such capitulation by major investors often amplifies price pressure, as it reduces available buying support and encourages further sales from others.

This pattern extends beyond Polychain. Data from Coinalyze reveals Pendle has posted a negative Buy Sell Delta for nine consecutive days, indicating that sell orders have consistently outnumbered buys on the spot market. This metric confirms the dominance of selling pressure, with volumes tilting heavily toward distribution rather than accumulation.

Source: Coinalyze

Market analysts, drawing from historical patterns in similar DeFi tokens, note that prolonged negative deltas like this often precede deeper corrections unless countered by fresh inflows. Pendle’s trading volume has also seen a 15% decline week-over-week, per aggregated exchange data, further evidencing reduced participation from retail and institutional traders alike.

Frequently Asked Questions

What Caused Pendle Token’s Recent Price Drop?

Pendle price has dropped due to sustained whale selling and a broader downtrend persisting for over six months. Institutional exits, like Polychain’s, combined with negative buy-sell deltas, have intensified bearish momentum, pushing the price below key moving averages.

Will Pendle Price Recover Soon?

Pendle price recovery depends on breaking above $2.25 to signal buyer resurgence, but current indicators like low RSI and strong bearish DMI suggest continued downside risk toward $1.80 if support at $2 fails. Monitoring whale activity will be key for any rebound cues.

Key Takeaways

• Whale Capitulation Intensifies: Polychain Capital’s $3.99 million loss on Pendle highlights fading conviction among long-term holders.
• Selling Pressure Dominates: Nine days of negative buy-sell delta and 30 days of large orders confirm distribution over accumulation.
• Support Test Ahead: Watch $2 level closely; a break could lead to $1.80, while $2.25 reclaim might spark recovery toward $2.50.

Conclusion

In this Pendle price analysis, the token’s decline reflects a confluence of whale exits and bearish technical signals, with Polychain Capital’s move exemplifying broader capitulation. As RSI nears oversold at 36 and DMI favors bears, traders should prepare for potential further drops unless buying volume surges. Staying informed on on-chain metrics will help navigate this volatile phase in the crypto market.

Polychain Exits at a Loss

Polychain Capital’s decision to sell its Pendle holdings comes at a time when the DeFi sector faces heightened scrutiny over yield protocols. Pendle, known for its innovative tokenization of future yields, has struggled to maintain momentum amid wider market corrections. The firm’s exit, after an average entry of $3.16, not only locks in losses but also potentially signals to other investors that the project’s short-term outlook remains challenging.

Source: TradingView

Broader market data supports this view. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart has fallen to 36, inching toward oversold conditions that could hint at an eventual bounce, though historical precedents in Pendle suggest such levels often precede capitulation rather than immediate reversals. The Directional Movement Index (DMI) reinforces this, with the Positive Directional Index at just 13, underscoring robust bearish control over price action.

If this trend persists, the critical $2 support may not hold, exposing Pendle to further downside toward the $1.80 zone—a level that aligns with prior accumulation areas from late 2024. Conversely, a decisive close above $2.25 would indicate renewed buyer interest, potentially paving the way for a push to $2.50. Expert commentary from DeFi analysts, such as those at CryptoQuant, emphasizes that whale distribution phases like this typically last until external catalysts, like Ethereum upgrades or regulatory clarity, intervene.

Market Implications for Pendle Holders

For existing Pendle holders, the current environment demands caution. The token’s market cap has shrunk by over 20% in the last quarter, per CoinMarketCap data, reflecting not just price but also liquidity concerns. Institutional selling, as seen with Polychain, can create a feedback loop where retail investors follow suit, exacerbating declines.

Yet, Pendle’s fundamentals remain intact. As a leading yield-trading protocol on Ethereum and other chains, it continues to see protocol-level activity, with total value locked (TVL) holding steady around $500 million despite price weakness. This disconnect between on-chain usage and token price suggests that patient investors might view dips as entry points, especially if broader crypto sentiment improves.

Looking at comparable assets, tokens like Aave or Uniswap have weathered similar whale exits in past cycles, often rebounding once selling exhausts. Pendle’s path forward will hinge on whether it can stabilize above key supports and attract fresh capital inflows.

Final Thoughts

• Polychain Capital’s exit marked a visible break in long-term conviction, but it was not the only signal weighing on Pendle.
• Sustained spot selling and weak momentum suggested broader hesitation among buyers.