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Markets leaned cautiously risk-on, with crypto outperforming a mixed backdrop in traditional assets. ETF flows had their biggest one-day surge since October as CPI, Treasury auctions and a dense FOMC week could reset risk appetite. In addition, we discuss the new WET token, the native token of the HumidiFi prop AMM.
Indices
Markets leaned risk-on, with crypto leading and traditional assets mixed. BTC posted a modest gain (+2.3%), outperforming equities where the S&P 500 (-0.3%) and Nasdaq 100 (-0.2%) softened, while Gold held nearly flat (+0.3%). The standout laggard was the Perp Index, which contracted by -5.1%.
Perps (-5.1%) were the day’s clear laggard, weighed down by a sharp intraday spike-and-fade across dYdX, GMX, and specifically HYPE. A midday squeeze briefly lifted the sector before momentum stalled and flows reversed into the close. JUP rose as much as 9% before retracing most of its gains. Meanwhile, HYPE has been struggling as of late, as builder codes create new frontend relationships with users, and the market anticipates a TGE from rival Lighter.
Looking ahead, markets will pivot toward this week’s CPI print and a slate of mid-week Treasury auctions, both of which could reset risk appetite. With implied volatility still suppressed across majors, any macro surprise risks producing outsized moves.
Market Update
Flows finally turned meaningfully positive. BTC ETFs drove the bulk of the move ($287 million), ETH had its best day since Oct. 28 ($142 million) and SOL contributed marginally ($16 million). This is the first clean signal of risk appetite returning after nearly a month of choppy to negative prints. The flow spike likely reflects short-term positioning ahead of catalysts such as FOMC, inflation data, and jobs. It can also be attributed to quarter-end optics, as allocators often re-express benchmark exposure into liquid wrappers during macro-heavy weeks.
Still, AUM-to-market-cap ratios tell a different story. BTC remains stuck near ~6.6–6.8%, ETH continues its multi-month slide from ~3.3% to ~2.8%, and SOL, while rising, sits just under 1%. This divergence implies that price appreciation, not sticky inflows, has been the dominant force maintaining ETF sizes.
Meanwhile, BTC’s inflow looks more like tactical re-risking than renewed conviction. Derivatives markets show elevated basis but falling perp OI, a sign that capital currently prefers directional spot exposure over leverage.
ETF flows are becoming increasingly important for BTC, because traditional “DATCO” buyers aren’t carrying the bid anymore. The latest treasury holdings data shows that, aside from Strategy (MSTR), corporate accumulation has been effectively flat for months. Names like NAKAMOTO, SMLR, SQNS, and the smaller treasury cohorts have added marginal amounts at best, contributing almost nothing to incremental demand. Even MSTR can’t continue to accumulate in the same way it did before.
This is especially true as the major BTC DATCOs have mNAVs below 1, removing the once BTC-accretive play of diluting shareholders. In other words, the corporate balance sheet bid that helped define the prior cycle and earlier in this cycle isn’t showing up any time soon for BTC.
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Source: https://blockworks.co/news/etfs-flash-humidifi-tokenizes
