a16z: 5 core indicators reveal the current state of the crypto market

Author: Daren Matsuoka , a16z crypto

Compiled by: Tim, PANews

The crypto industry is maturing, and late last year we outlined five indicators to watch closely in 2025 to track the industry’s growth and development.

Here’s a look at the mid-year numbers, their drivers, and why they matter.

• Monthly mobile wallet users: up 23%
• Adjusted stablecoin trading volume: +49%
• ETP net inflows (Bitcoin and Ethereum): +28%
• Spot trading volume transferred from decentralized exchanges to centralized exchanges: +51%
• Total transaction fees (block space required): -43%
• Number of tokens with monthly net profit exceeding $1 million: 22

1. Monthly mobile wallet users: up 23%

Average in 2025: 34.4 million monthly active mobile wallet users

Average in 2024: 27.9 million monthly active mobile wallet users

Why is this metric important?

Wallet infrastructure has improved significantly, with low transaction fees, new account abstraction protocols (EIP-7702), embedded wallet products (Privy, Turnkey, Dynamic), etc. Now is the best time to build a new generation of mobile wallets.

Related News:

• This month Stripe acquired Privy, a leading wallet infrastructure provider.

 Source: a16z crypto (as of May 2025)

2. Adjusted stablecoin trading volume: +49%

Average monthly adjusted stablecoin trading volume in 2025: $702 billion

Average monthly adjusted stablecoin trading volume in 2024: $472 billion

Why is this metric important?

Stablecoins have achieved product-market fit. We can now transfer USD value at a cost of less than 1 cent and in less than 1 second, making stablecoins a great payment product, and large financial institutions are embracing this opportunity.

Related News:

• USDC Issuer Circle Listed on New York Stock Exchange
• Payment giant Stripe acquires stablecoin infrastructure provider Bridge and announces several new products
• Coinbase has released a proxy payment standard that supports stablecoin payments.
• Visa and Mastercard step up support for stablecoins
• Meta reportedly in talks to introduce stablecoins as a means of payment

 Source: Visa (as of June 2025)

3. ETP net inflows (Bitcoin and Ethereum): +28%

​​June 2025: ETP net inflows total $45 billion (of which BTC inflows $42 billion and ETH inflows $3.4 billion)​​

​​By the end of 2024: ETP net inflows total $35 billion (including $33 billion in BTC and $2.4 billion in ETH)​​

Why is this metric important?

Institutional capital is entering the crypto space, a sign of the industry’s overall maturity. With the regulatory framework becoming clearer and core issuers launching related businesses, net inflows of funds into exchange traded products (ETPs) are expected to continue to grow.

Related News:

• The U.S. SEC recently asked the issuer of the spot Solana ETF to update its S-1 filing materials, which means that this type of ETF may be approved soon.

 Source: Dune @hildobby (as of June 2025)

4. Spot trading volume transferred from decentralized exchanges to centralized exchanges: +51%

Average monthly DEX to CEX trading volume in 2025: 17%

Average monthly DEX to CEX trading volume in 2024: 11%

Why is this metric important?

As more and more people enter the crypto world, the use of decentralized exchanges in the crypto market is expected to gradually increase over centralized exchanges. This growth trend highlights the overall development of the DeFi ecosystem.

Related News;

• Coinbase has just announced that it will natively support users completing decentralized exchange transactions directly in the application, which will open up thousands of new assets to trading.

 Source: The Block (as of June 2025)

5. Total transaction fees (block space required): -43%

Average in 2025: $239 million in monthly transaction fees

Average in 2024: $439 million in monthly transaction fees

Why is this metric important?

The total amount of transaction fees denominated in US dollars reflects the total demand for block space on a particular blockchain, which is the actual economic value.

However, there are many complications with this metric, as most projects are explicitly committed to reducing user fees. For this reason, it is particularly important to consider the unit transaction cost, which refers to the cost of consuming a specified amount of blockchain resources. The ideal state is that the total transaction fee (the total amount of transaction fees) continues to increase, while the gas fee (the unit cost of resource consumption) remains at a low level.

Related News:

• There has been a lot of discussion recently on the X platform around the importance of this metric (and related metrics like REV).

 Source: Dune (as of June 2025)

There is another additional metric worth noting: the number of tokens with a monthly net profit of more than $1 million. As of June 2025, there are only 22 such tokens (data source: Token Terminal).

With the implementation of the new regulatory environment and the upcoming market structure legislation, the path for tokens to complete the economic closed loop is finally starting to clear. This will prompt more projects to return value directly to tokens in the form of revenue, thereby building a healthier token economy.