Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is the Bottom In Or More Pain Left Ahead?

Key Insights:

• Glassnode data shows Bitcoin price bottom formation yet not confirmed amid continuous selling, and persistent ETF outflows.
• Bitcoin’s historical cycle behavior indicates the market may not have reached its bottom yet.
• Analysts remain hopeful as long as BTC holds above the critical $61,000 support level.

Bitcoin price came under pressure after the US-Iran ceasefire ended. Despite this, it still continues to flirt with $62,000. On-chain metrics show that Bitcoin has become a value buy, however, market analysts suggest that it is still not the bottom for Bitcoin. Investors need to closely watch the support at $60,000 before any new moves.

Bitcoin Price Bottom Signals Are Missing

On-chain data from Glassnode shows that Bitcoin price continues to trade in the deep value territory. But these indicators still need to convince that BTC has reached a definite bottom.

According to Glassnode, Bitcoin price has remained below both its True Market Mean of $76,600 and the short-term holder cost basis of $72,200 for roughly five months. Thus, BTC remains undervalued according to on-chain valuation metrics. However, investors are waiting for further confirmation on trend reversal.

The report noted that long-term holder loss realization has increased significantly, rising from 15% of total realized value in early February to 43%. Daily realized losses also peaked at approximately $280 million, marking the highest level since December 2022.

Glassnode added that institutional demand remains subdued despite some improvement in ETF flows. Average daily spot Bitcoin ETF outflows have narrowed from $193 million to $88.9 million. Moreover, the daily ETF trading volumes remained between $650 million and $950 million, which is 80% drop from the peak of October 2025.

In the derivatives market, the options open interest put-to-call ratio has fallen to 0.56. This is a positive indicator and shows weaker demand for bearish positioning. However, options skew continues to show investors are paying a premium for downside protection.

Glassnode concluded that Bitcoin may be in the later stages of a bear market bottoming process. However, the firm said confirmation would require a reduction in long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization in ETF flows, etc.

BTC’s Historical Cycle Behaviour

In his latest mention, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said Bitcoin does not yet appear to be close to a market bottom based on its historical cycle behavior.

Sharing a logarithmic price chart, Ju said BTC’s risk-to-reward profile improves significantly as the Bitcoin price approaches investors’ aggregate cost basis. He noted that every major Bitcoin market cycle has historically bottomed near the realized price.

According to the CEO of CryptoQuant, Bitcoin has yet to revisit its realized price during the current downturn. However, he said that this could also be different, unlike before, and the current market cycle may behave differently.

Bitcoin Price Needs to Defend $61,000 to Avoid Further Downside

Popular crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe stated that, despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin’s price continues to show bullish divergence. As per him, the broader uptrend remains intact.

The analyst added that Bitcoin is likely to continue moving higher as long as it holds above the key $61,000 support level. If that level remains intact, van de Poppe expects BTC to retest higher price levels in the near term.

According to van de Poppe, the latest correction has not invalidated Bitcoin’s bullish technical structure. He noted that while a bearish divergence could still emerge.

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