Nebius (NBIS) Stock Climbs 3% on AI Infrastructure Momentum – Is It a Buy?

Key Takeaways

• NBIS shares advanced nearly 3% during Monday’s premarket session, reaching $222.00
• The stock has delivered a 124.1% return over the last six months, crushing the S&P 500’s 8.9% advance
• First-quarter 2026 revenue reached $399 million, representing a 684% year-over-year jump
• The company increased its 2026 capital expenditure outlook to a range of $20B–$25B to support expanding infrastructure
• Analysts maintain a consensus Buy recommendation with an average target of $213.89

Shares of Nebius Group (NBIS) advanced nearly 3% during Monday’s premarket hours, hitting $222.00, as capital flowed back into high-momentum artificial intelligence infrastructure plays. Broader market strength supported the move, with Nasdaq futures climbing 1.22% and S&P 500 futures rising 0.42%.

Nebius Group N.V., NBIS

Over the past half-year, the stock has delivered an impressive 124.1% return, significantly outperforming the S&P 500’s 8.9% advance and the Zacks Computer & Technology sector’s 13.2% climb. During this same timeframe, Microsoft declined 18.9% while CoreWeave managed only a 5.9% gain.

Monday’s upward movement follows a retreat from NBIS’s 52-week peak of $299.86, reached in June. Currently trading 11.1% beneath its 20-day moving average of $249.11, the stock appears to be staging a recovery rather than initiating a fresh breakout.

From a technical perspective, NBIS is positioned above both its 50-day simple moving average of $215.09 and its 200-day SMA of $132.94. Key resistance is located near $233.50, while support holds around $200.50. The MACD indicator remains below its signal line, suggesting momentum traders should exercise caution.

First Quarter Delivers Explosive Growth

The first quarter of 2026 showcased exceptional performance. Total group revenues soared 684% year-over-year to reach $399 million. The Nebius AI division alone expanded 841% and achieved an annualized revenue run-rate of $1.9 billion.

Adjusted EBITDA margin for the entire group registered at 32%, while the Nebius AI segment delivered an impressive 45% margin. The company’s financial position was significantly strengthened through a $4.3 billion convertible note issuance and a $2 billion equity injection from NVIDIA.

Cash and cash equivalents currently total $9.3 billion. Leadership reaffirmed 2026 projections for group revenues between $3B and $3.4B, with annualized run-rate revenues expected to reach $7B–$9B and an adjusted EBITDA margin hovering around 40%.

Contracted power capacity expanded from 2 gigawatts to more than 3.5 GW during Q1, with plans to reach 4 GW by year’s end. An additional Pennsylvania facility will contribute another 1.2 GW once fully online.

Capital Spending Increases, Near-Term Margin Pressure Expected

Nebius elevated its 2026 capital expenditure forecast to $20B–$25B, up from the prior range of $16B–$20B. Leadership indicated the increased investment will support 2027 infrastructure expansion already secured through customer agreements.

Profitability metrics are anticipated to soften in the second quarter as capacity investments hit the books before corresponding revenue materializes. Margins should bounce back to Q1 levels in the third quarter and continue improving in Q4.

Pipeline development surged 3.5 times sequentially in the first quarter. Customer demand continues to exceed available infrastructure, with clients increasingly offering advance payments to lock in future GPU availability.

Regarding valuation, NBIS currently trades at a price-to-book ratio of 7.53x compared to the industry benchmark of 3.91x. The company’s next earnings report is scheduled for August 6, with analyst consensus calling for a 73-cent per-share loss and $576.67 million in revenue.

Bank of America maintains a Buy rating with a $280 target. BNP Paribas launched coverage with a Neutral stance at $255. DA Davidson holds a Neutral rating with a $250 target. The average analyst price target stands at $213.89, trailing the current trading price.

Zacks has assigned NBIS a Hold rating (Rank #3).

The post Nebius (NBIS) Stock Climbs 3% on AI Infrastructure Momentum – Is It a Buy? appeared first on Blockonomi.