Vietnam’s growth jumps to 8.39% as June trade beats estimates

HANOI: Vietnam’s economic growth beat estimates in the second quarter, while trade grew faster than expected in June and inflation slowed.

Gross domestic product rose 8.39% in the April-June period from a year earlier, according to data from the National Statistics Office in Hanoi on Friday. That’s faster than the 7% median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg. It also beat first-quarter growth, which was revised to 7.94% from 7.83%.

June exports rose 28.1%, more than the 20% forecast, while imports surged 45.2%, compared to an estimate of 35%.

“Manufacturing was the driving force of the overall economy,” the statistics office said on its website, citing “a recovery of export orders and positive spillover effects of public investment.”

The better-than-expected data show that tariffs and the energy shock from the conflict in the Middle East have failed to derail Vietnam’s ambitious 2026 goal of double-digit growth. In a positive sign, total registered foreign investment in the country at the end of June totalled US$34.65 billion, up 61% from a year earlier.

The nation’s central bank said Thursday it will continue to provide more access to loans, prioritising growth sectors, while noting inflationary pressures.

Vietnam remains a key exporter of everything from shoes to machine parts, but 2025’s tariffs and this year’s energy shock has tested its model. Friday’s data indicate that government efforts to spur growth are paying off.

Still, authorities said last week Vietnam “faces many challenges” in reaching the 2026 growth target of at least 10% this year. Prime Minister Le Minh Hung has instructed ministries and the central bank to conduct expanded fiscal and monetary policies in a targeted and focused manner to support economic growth, it said.

The government is aiming for growth of 11.9% in the second half of 2026 in a bid to meet its 10% goal for the whole year. The economy expanded 8.18% in the six months through June, Friday’s statement said.

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s consumer prices climbed 4.69% in June from a year earlier, slower than the 5.60% in May. The government aims to cap inflation at 4.5% this year but the central bank has previously said it could reach as much as 5.5%.

The manufacturing powerhouse posted a $75.3 billion trade surplus with the US in the first six months, a 21.3% increase from the same period last year, the statistics agency said. Vietnam had the third-largest US trade gap last year, behind only China and Mexico, underscoring the scale of supply chain shifts away from its northern neighbor.