Block Stock Is Flat in 2026 While the Business Keeps Beating

Key Stats for Block Stock

• Current Price: $75.32
• Target Price (Mid): ~$153
• Street Target: ~$90
• Potential Total Return: ~05%
• Annualized IRR: ~17% / year
• Earnings Reaction: +6.72% (May 7, 2026)
• Max Drawdown: 39.48% (February 12, 2026)

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What Happened?

Block, Inc. (XYZ) is doing two things at once that are hard to reconcile. The business keeps posting record numbers, and the stock keeps going nowhere. Shares sit at around $75, below where they opened the year and roughly 9% under the 52-week high of $82.50. Yet first-quarter adjusted earnings beat estimates handily, and the company just launched a banking product built to lock in seller cash. Bulls see a leaner, more profitable Block, the market has not caught up to. Bears see a trailing price-to-earnings multiple near 56 times and a recent GAAP loss. The question neither side can answer yet: if the results are this good, why won’t the stock move?

That tension sharpened this month. On June 12, Square Financial Services, Block’s bank subsidiary, launched Square High Yield Savings, a deposit tier paying 3.50% annual percentage yield (APY, the yearly return on savings) to sellers who keep at least $10,000 in their Square Savings account. Block says that the rate is more than eight times the national average. The stock barely moved. For a company whose CEO keeps telling investors Block is becoming a different kind of financial company, that muted response shows how little credit the market is extending.

Why a Savings Account Is More Strategic Than It Looks

A 3.5% rate sounds like a gimmick. It is not. It is the clearest piece yet of the thesis Block Head and Co-Founder Jack Dorsey laid out at the J.P. Morgan Technology, Media and Communications Conference on May 19. Dorsey was blunt about traditional banks. “The traditional banking relationship is one of taxation more than anything else and fees and obscurity of information to encourage bad behavior which creeps more fees,” he said. His pitch is the opposite: be a “protector” of the customer’s money, not a toll collector. A product that pays sellers eight times the going rate, with no application and no fees, is that idea made real.

The strategic point is that deposits are funding, not just a perk. A larger deposit base gives Square Financial Services cheaper capital for its lending programs, and lending is where Block believes its data edge lives. “Money is the most honest signal one can have because you can’t lie about it,” Dorsey told the conference, arguing that Block sees every inflow and outflow across sellers and consumers and can underwrite risk better than a bank. That engine powers Cash App Borrow and Square Loans, and now a savings tier built to keep seller cash inside the ecosystem. The logic is sound. Whether it shows up in the numbers fast enough to move a premium-priced stock is the open question.

The Execution Case Is Already on the Tape

The skepticism is not about whether Block can operate. Block reported Q1 2026 results on May 7, with adjusted earnings per share of $0.85, well ahead of the $0.68 estimate, a beat of about 26%. The stock rose 6.72% the next session, and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, a rough proxy for cash operating profit) crossed $1.0 billion. Bernstein SocGen reiterated its Outperform rating this month at a $90 target. Wall Street is broadly constructive: TIKR shows 28 Buys, 8 Outperforms, 7 Holds, 1 Underperform, and 1 Sell, with a mean target near $90.

The harder part is the other side of the ledger. The same restructuring that lifted adjusted margins also produced a GAAP loss of about $0.52 per share in Q1, which bears read as evidence that the adjusted figures flatter the picture. An ongoing federal inquiry adds to that caution. So does management structure: Block disclosed that its engineering lead departed on June 5, with engineering now reporting directly to Dorsey. Mid-transformation, more control at the top reads as decisiveness or risk depending on your priors.

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What the Numbers Say About Valuation

Here, the flat stock starts to look like the real debate. Block trades at about 9.4 times forward EV/EBITDA and roughly 18 times forward earnings, against a trailing multiple near 56 times that reflects how depressed GAAP profit was during the restructuring. Those forward multiples are not demanding given what the estimates expect: TIKR consensus has EBITDA growing about 31% in 2026 and normalized EPS up about 64%, on revenue growth of roughly 8%. The bear counter is that this assumes the back half of the year delivers, after a year of heavy cost cuts. The market is not disputing the quarter that happened. It is discounting the quarters that have to happen next.

Free cash flow is the swing factor. As a deposit base scales, net interest income on seller and consumer balances grows, which is exactly the lever the new savings tier is built to pull. If deposits climb and lending losses stay contained, the margin and free cash flow story compounds. If macro conditions or loan loss rates worsen, the premium evaporates fast. That is the bet, stated plainly: a high-quality compounder priced for execution risk, where the payoff depends on whether second-half guidance holds.

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TIKR Advanced Model Analysis

Using TIKR’s mid-case scenario realized at the end of 2030, the model points to a target of around $153 against a $74.35 entry. That implies a potential total return of around 105% and an annualized IRR (internal rate of return, the yearly return to get from today’s price to the target) of around 17% per year over roughly four and a half years.

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Two revenue drivers carry the model: Cash App monetization deepening as users move from peer-to-peer payments into banking, lending, and savings, and Square expanding beyond payments into the full financial stack for sellers, with the new savings tier as a recent example. The margin driver is operating leverage from the leaner cost base, with EBITDA margins set to expand toward roughly 17% in 2026. The primary risk is credit: the lending engine is the heart of the bull case, and rising loss rates in a downturn would hit growth and the multiple at once. Upside: a structurally more profitable Block, funded by a growing deposit base, rerates toward the Street’s $90 target and beyond. Downside: back-half guidance slips and the premium multiple compresses against still-messy GAAP results.

Conclusion

The thing to watch is whether the savings push actually pulls in deposits, and it will show up at Q2 2026 earnings, expected around August 5. Good looks like EBITDA and EPS growth holding near the consensus pace, with any disclosure showing Square Savings balances climbing, which would validate the funding flywheel behind the lending engine. Bad looks like decelerating growth or a guidance walk-back that confirms the back-half worry. Block has earned the benefit of the doubt on execution. August is when the market decides whether the savings strategy is a real funding engine or a headline that does not move deposits.

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Should You Invest in Block?

The only way to really know is to look at the numbers yourself. TIKR gives you free access to the same institutional-quality financial data that professional analysts use to answer exactly that question.

Pull up Block, and you’ll see years of historical financials, what Wall Street analysts expect for revenue and earnings in the quarters ahead, how valuation multiples have moved over time, and whether price targets are trending up or down.

You can build a free watchlist to track Block alongside every other stock on your radar. No credit card required. Just the data you need to decide for yourself.

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Disclaimer:

Please note that the articles on TIKR are not intended to serve as investment or financial advice from TIKR or our content team, nor are they recommendations to buy or sell any stocks. We create our content based on TIKR Terminal’s investment data and analysts’ estimates. Our analysis might not include recent company news or important updates. TIKR has no position in any stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading, and happy investing!