US Users Drive 30% of Polymarket Volume Despite Federal Ban, Study Estimates

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US Users Drive 30% of Polymarket Volume Despite Federal Ban, Study Estimates

New research suggests that despite a federal prohibition, users in the United States continue to represent a significant portion of activity on the decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket. A study cited by Wired estimates that American users account for roughly 30% of the platform’s total trading volume, with deposits ranging between $10.6 billion and $26.7 billion over the past year.

Methodology Behind the Estimates

The study, conducted by Rutgers University statistics professor Harry Crane, analyzed trading patterns to identify the geographic origin of market participants. Crane’s methodology focused on two primary indicators: the concentration of activity in U.S.-centric markets, such as American elections and major sports leagues, and the timing of trades aligning with U.S. business hours. Notably, the research found that half of all sports market trading on Polymarket originated from within the United States.

Circumventing the Ban

Polymarket was ordered to cease operations in the United States in 2022 after the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) determined the platform was operating as an unregistered derivatives exchange. In response, the company blocked U.S. IP addresses. However, the study indicates that a substantial number of American users are bypassing these restrictions using virtual private networks (VPNs) to mask their physical location. This persistent access has allowed the platform to maintain a strong U.S. user base despite the legal barriers.

Market Growth Projections

If Polymarket retains its current market share and user behavior continues, the study projects that U.S. trading volume could reach $133 billion by 2030. This forecast underscores the potential scale of unregulated prediction market activity and the challenges facing regulators in enforcing geographic restrictions on decentralized platforms.

Regulatory Response and Polymarket US

In a significant development, Polymarket launched a separately licensed mobile application, ‘Polymarket US,’ in December 2025. This app is designed to comply with U.S. regulations, offering a legal avenue for American users to participate in prediction markets. The existence of this regulated alternative raises questions about why a large portion of U.S. volume continues to flow through the main, unregulated platform. It also highlights the tension between user demand for these markets and the regulatory framework governing financial derivatives.

Conclusion

The findings from Professor Crane’s study provide a data-driven look at the persistent engagement of U.S. users with Polymarket, despite clear legal prohibitions. As the platform launches a compliant U.S. version, the disparity between regulated and unregulated usage patterns will likely remain a focal point for regulators and market observers. The situation illustrates the broader challenge of enforcing financial regulations in the decentralized digital asset space.

FAQs

Q1: Is it legal for U.S. residents to use Polymarket?
No. Polymarket was banned in the U.S. in 2022 for operating an unregistered derivatives exchange. Using a VPN to access the platform violates both the platform’s terms of service and U.S. regulations.

Q2: How did the study estimate U.S. user volume?
The study, led by Rutgers professor Harry Crane, analyzed trading patterns by focusing on U.S.-centric markets like American elections and sports, and by identifying trading activity that occurred during typical U.S. business hours.

Q3: What is ‘Polymarket US’?
Launched in December 2025, Polymarket US is a separately licensed mobile application designed to comply with U.S. financial regulations, offering a legal alternative for American users to participate in prediction markets.

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