Novo Nordisk (NVO) Stock: Oral Wegovy Hits Major Milestone as Wall Street Eyes 92% Rally

Key Highlights

• The oral version of Wegovy eclipsed 3 million prescriptions across the United States within its first five months on the market
• More than 80% of oral Wegovy patients represent new entrants to the GLP-1 therapy category, signaling market expansion
• Eli Lilly’s competing oral therapy Foundayo entered the market in April but has recorded lower prescription volumes than Wegovy’s pill formulation
• Shares of NVO were priced at $42.96 on June 5, while analyst valuations suggest fair value near $74 per American Depositary Receipt
• TD Cowen upgraded its 2030 worldwide GLP-1 revenue forecast to $150 billion, citing increased oral medication uptake

Shares of Novo Nordisk (NVO) closed at $42.96 on June 5, representing approximately a 37% decline from price levels discussed in an optimistic investment analysis released in May 2025. Nonetheless, several Wall Street analysts believe the recent selloff has created an attractive entry point.

Novo Nordisk A/S, NVO

The tablet formulation of Wegovy has emerged as a standout performer. Novo Nordisk disclosed that prescription volume for the once-daily pill exceeded 3 million within just five months of its American debut — outpacing initial projections for a novel delivery format entering a crowded marketplace.

The pharmaceutical giant hit the 1 million prescription mark during its first 10 to 12 weeks, then doubled that figure by adding 2 million more scripts over the subsequent 10-week period. This momentum shift drew attention from company leadership, who characterized it as proof of sustained demand despite intensifying competition.

CEO Mike Doustdar shared these insights at a research and development presentation on Sunday, acknowledging that Eli Lilly’s (LLY) oral weight management medication Foundayo had launched in April. He emphasized that the prescription trajectory “is acceleration” even when accounting for the competitive landscape.

Based on IQVIA prescription tracking data cited by industry analysts, Foundayo’s U.S. prescription counts have remained below those recorded for Wegovy’s tablet. Despite this, Eli Lilly maintains a substantially higher market capitalization and continues to lead Novo Nordisk in Wall Street valuations.

Oral Wegovy Expands GLP-1 Patient Base Beyond Injection Users

Novo Nordisk reported that over 80% of oral Wegovy prescriptions went to individuals without prior GLP-1 medication use. This metric carries significant strategic importance — it indicates the tablet isn’t merely converting existing injection users, but rather attracting a previously untapped patient population that had not pursued pharmaceutical obesity treatment.

TD Cowen increased its global GLP-1 market projection for 2030 to $150 billion from a prior estimate of $139 billion, attributing part of the revision to expanding oral product adoption.

Novo Nordisk currently trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 12.77 and a trailing P/E of 10.09, per Yahoo Finance data. A discounted cash flow valuation framework calculated an intrinsic value of roughly $74 per ADR — representing approximately 92% upside from current trading levels. This valuation employed cautious assumptions regarding revenue expansion and profit margins.

Near-Term Headwinds Expected Before 2027 Growth Resumes

The investment thesis supporting NVO doesn’t dismiss current challenges. Rather, it posits that market pricing reflects lasting impairment when the difficulties may prove transient.

Revenue projections point to approximately a 9% contraction in 2026, driven by softer injectable Wegovy performance, pricing dynamics, and disappointing outcomes from CagriSema clinical studies. These obstacles are tangible concerns.

However, the oral Wegovy launch momentum, broadening GLP-1 market opportunity, and Novo’s entrenched diabetes franchise form the foundation of the recovery narrative extending into 2027 and subsequent years.

During its June 9 R&D presentation, Novo Nordisk verified the 3 million prescription achievement, confirming that the oral Wegovy commercial rollout continues advancing as planned.

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