Peter Brandt Says Bitcoin May Not Find Tradable Low Until October as BTC Falls Below $63K

TLDR

• Bitcoin dropped below $63,000 for the first time since February 24 as selling pressure accelerated across the crypto market.
• More than $1.1 billion in leveraged crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours as BTC and altcoins moved lower.
• Peter Brandt said Bitcoin reached its initial February-low target but may not form a tradable low until October.
• BTC broke below its rising channel, with the 8-day moving average near $70,062 and the 18-day average near $73,697.
• CryptoQuant data showed ETFs and Strategy absorbed 1,240,808 BTC since March 2024, while BTC returned to $63K.

Bitcoin price fell below $63,000 for the first time since February 24 as selling pressure accelerated across the crypto market. The move extended BTC’s recent decline and pushed the asset toward its February low after a sharp breakdown from a rising channel that had guided price action from late February through May.

The selloff triggered more than $1.1 billion in liquidated leveraged crypto positions over 24 hours. Bitcoin traded near $63,572 after falling through several support levels, while traders watched whether the market could stabilize above the $60,000 area.

Veteran trader Peter Brandt said Bitcoin had reached its initial downside target at the February low. He added that this does not rule out a deeper decline or a “terminal wash-out,” and said he does not see a tradable low forming until October.

Bitcoin Breaks Below Rising Channel

Bitcoin’s daily chart shows a clear break below the ascending channel that supported the market from February through late May. The lower boundary of that channel had acted as support near the $70,000 area before the latest decline pushed BTC sharply lower.

BTC is now trading below its short-term moving averages. The 8-day moving average is near $70,062, while the 18-day moving average is around $73,697. Price trading below both levels shows that short-term momentum remains weak.

Source: X

The loss of the channel support is the main technical signal on the chart. Bitcoin had failed near the upper channel resistance around $82,000 in May before forming lower daily candles and losing the lower boundary of the structure.

Immediate support is now located near $62,000 to $63,000. If this zone fails, the next level sits near $60,000, followed by wider support around $58,000 to $55,000. A daily close below $60,000 would strengthen the bearish setup and could add pressure on leveraged positions.

Liquidations and On-Chain Data Show Pressure

The latest Bitcoin drop came with heavy liquidations across crypto markets. More than $1.1 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out over 24 hours as BTC and altcoins moved lower.

Market watchers also pointed to Bitcoin touching its 200-week moving average for the first time since October 2023. That level is often tracked by long-term investors because it has marked important zones in previous market cycles.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said the current phase looks like a major change of hands. He noted that Bitcoin investors’ average cost basis is around $53,000 and that previous bear markets ended after price fell below realized price.

Source: X

Ju also said institutional and corporate buying has absorbed large amounts of BTC without preventing the market from returning to earlier price levels. Since January 2023, Strategy has reportedly bought 711,206 BTC and sold only 32 BTC, removing 711,174 BTC from circulation. Since March 2024, when BTC was also near $63,000, ETFs absorbed 509,102 BTC and Strategy bought 650,706 BTC, for a combined 1,240,808 BTC.

For comparison, exchange reserves are estimated near 2.7 million BTC, while Satoshi Nakamoto’s holdings are often estimated near 1 million BTC. Ju said the data shows unusually strong selling pressure despite large-scale absorption.

Analyst Watch $60,000 Support and October Timing

Peter Schiff also commented on Bitcoin’s decline, saying the correction in technology stocks could add pressure because the tech rally had supported BTC. He said gold could move in the opposite direction if investors shift toward safe-haven assets.

Schiff also said Bitcoin is trading below the peak first reached in April 2021. He contrasted that with Michael Saylor’s long-term view that BTC could compound by more than 30% per year over the next five years.

Bitcoin found short-term support around $61,000, slightly above the February low near $60,000, before bouncing more than $2,000. Traders are now watching whether that rebound can hold or whether the market retests lower levels.

On the upside, BTC needs to reclaim $65,000 to $66,000 to show early recovery strength. A stronger rebound would require a move back above $70,000, which now aligns with broken channel support and the 8-day moving average. The next larger resistance sits near $73,700 to $74,000, close to the 18-day moving average.

The ADX reading of 36.74 shows that trend strength is elevated. Since price is moving lower, that reading currently supports the bearish trend. The ATR is around 2,130, showing wider daily price swings and continued volatility.

Source: X

Ju also noted that the 6-month to 2-year holder cohort now represents 53% of realized cap, up from 15% two years ago. During the previous cycle, Bitcoin bottomed when that cohort reached 68%. That data suggests more short-term holders are aging into longer-term holders, even as price action remains weak.

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