ASML Stock Rallies on AI Demand — But Is It Already Too Expensive?

TLDR

• ASML rose 3.2% intraday to $1,438.99 after management raised revenue guidance
• AI and memory orders from SK Hynix and Samsung are boosting the order book
• TSMC delayed deployment of ASML’s high-NA EUV machines until at least 2029
• Wall Street consensus is “Moderate Buy” with a price target of $1,504.38
• GF Value puts the stock 30.3% above intrinsic value at current prices

ASML stock climbed 3.2% on April 30, trading as high as $1,446.65 before settling at $1,438.99. The previous close was $1,394.08.

ASML Holding N.V., ASML

The move came after management raised revenue guidance, pointing to strong demand from key customers in the AI and memory chip space.

SK Hynix and Samsung are among the customers filling ASML’s order book. Both are expanding capacity to meet demand for AI-related memory chips, which requires more lithography equipment.

Erste Group responded by raising its FY2026 and FY2027 EPS forecasts for ASML. That kind of analyst upgrade tends to reinforce buying interest heading into the next earnings cycle.

ASML also received a Zacks Rank upgrade to #2 (Buy) around the same period, adding another layer of bullish sentiment to an already positive week.

UBS Group and Sanford C. Bernstein both reissued “buy” ratings on April 23. TD Cowen has maintained its “buy” rating since January. Of 32 analysts tracked, 24 have either a Buy or Strong Buy rating.

The consensus price target sits at $1,504.38, suggesting modest upside from current levels if you’re going by Wall Street’s numbers.

Institutional Buying Has Been Heavy

Several large institutions have been adding to their positions. Arrowstreet Capital nearly tripled its stake in Q4, picking up over one million additional units. Alliancebernstein increased its position by 75.6% in Q3.

That kind of institutional accumulation typically signals confidence in the longer-term growth story, even when near-term risks exist.

ASML’s market cap sits at around $566 billion. The P/E ratio is 51.6x on a trailing basis, and 46.1x on a TTM basis — well above the five-year median of 39.1x.

TSMC Delay Clouds the High-End Picture

Not everything is pointing up. TSMC said it will push back its deployment of ASML’s high-NA EUV machines to at least 2029, citing costs.

High-NA EUV is ASML’s most advanced — and most expensive — product line. A delay from its biggest customer creates uncertainty around when that revenue actually hits the books.

GF Value’s analysis puts the stock 30.3% above its calculated intrinsic value of $1,104.06, labeling it “Modestly Overvalued.” The GF Score itself is 97/100, with perfect scores in profitability and growth, but a valuation score of just 5/10.

There have been no insider transactions in the last three months. That absence doesn’t tell you much on its own, but it does suggest insiders aren’t rushing to buy at these levels either.

ASML’s 52-week range runs from $651.46 to $1,547.22, putting the current price near the upper end of that range.

The 50-day moving average is $1,399.72 and the 200-day moving average is $1,245.20 — the stock is trading above both.

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