Top Analyst Reveals XRP Final Hurdle Before a Bullish Breakout

XRP is approaching what one analyst calls a “final hurdle” before any meaningful bullish market structure shift can take hold.

Crypto analyst ChartNerd (@ChartNerdTA) posted a detailed technical breakdown on the two-week time frame, outlining a scenario where multiple structural factors converge at a single zone.

What the Charts Are Saying

ChartNerd points to three converging technical elements. The first is an ascending support level that has held for nearly six years. The second is a descending resistance line that has not been back-tested since the breakout in late 2024. The third is a falling wedge structure. All three tie into one specific zone he calls “the sweet spot.”

XRP currently trades at $1.41, down roughly 61% from its recent peak. ChartNerd places that squarely in bear market territory. He notes that prior XRP bear markets produced corrections of 96% and 85% respectively. Using that as a guide, he projects a potential correction of around 76%, which would place XRP between $0.7 and $0.9. However, this dip will build a foundation for a bigger move.

The Gaussian Channel Signal

A key indicator in ChartNerd’s analysis is the Gaussian channel on the two-week time frame. He points out that in every prior bear market, XRP has returned to the lower regression band of this channel.

That band currently sits at $0.96. The signal he is watching for is a bearish trend flip within the channel, which has historically marked cycle lows. That flip has not happened yet in this cycle, which leads him to believe the low is still ahead.

He also notes the possibility of relief rallies before any final drop. “There’s a potential to rally up to $1.8 to $2,” he says, while also warning that such a rally does not rule out a further 60% to 70% decline afterward. He points to the prior bear market as a direct example, where a 168% rally was followed by a 78% drop.

The Path Forward

ChartNerd does not view this as a reason for pessimism. He describes bear markets as the periods where foundations get built and opportunities open up. His longer-term outlook extends well beyond 2026, with expectations of an expansion phase pushing into 2030. He acknowledges that his approach puts him at odds with parts of the XRP community who believe XRP can easily reach $1,000.

He calls that outlook highly unrealistic. He does not expect XRP to break its all-time high in 2026. He does confirm he has much higher targets for XRP, but insists the current structure must be respected first.

Disclaimer: This content is meant to inform and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author’s personal opinions and do not represent Times Tabloid’s opinion. Readers are advised to conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions. Any action taken by the reader is strictly at their own risk. Times Tabloid is not responsible for any financial losses.

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