Pre-Market Update: What Trump’s Strait of Hormuz Blockade Means for Stocks and Oil Prices

TLDR

• President Trump ordered a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting Monday at 10 a.m. ET
• Dow futures fell as much as 580 points before recovering slightly; S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures dropped around 0.5–0.7%
• Oil prices surged above $100 a barrel, with Brent crude rising as much as 9%
• Iran called the blockade “an act of piracy” and threatened to target Persian Gulf ports
• Bank earnings season kicks off Monday, led by Goldman Sachs

US stock futures fell sharply on Monday morning after President Donald Trump announced a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes.

The move came after US-Iran peace talks collapsed over the weekend in Islamabad. The breakdown ended a brief period of optimism that had helped drive markets to their best week of 2026.

Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped as much as 580 points before trimming losses to around 300 points, or roughly 0.7% lower. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures each fell around 0.5% to 0.7%.

Oil prices jumped sharply on the news. Brent crude rose as much as 9%, reaching near $104 a barrel, before pulling back slightly to trade above $101. West Texas Intermediate futures climbed over 8% to top $104 a barrel.

Iran responded quickly to Trump’s announcement, vowing to target all Persian Gulf ports if its own energy hubs came under threat. The Iranian government called the blockade “an act of piracy.”

Rising Oil Prices Stoke Inflation Fears

The surge in oil prices brought fresh concerns about inflation. Higher energy costs can push up prices across the economy, which could slow consumer spending and economic growth.

Gold futures slipped 0.7% to $4,756 an ounce. The US dollar rose 0.3% against a basket of major currencies. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note edged up one basis point to 4.33%.

The three major indexes had just closed their best weeks of 2026, driven by a fragile ceasefire that now appears to be under pressure. Analysts said markets were now trying to reassess stock valuations with no clear end to the Middle East conflict in sight.

Despite the losses, some analysts noted that futures had pulled back from their worst levels, suggesting investors were still holding out hope for a diplomatic outcome.

Bank Earnings Season Begins

Attention was also turning to the start of first quarter earnings season. Goldman Sachs was set to report results on Monday.

JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley were all scheduled to report later in the week. Netflix and PepsiCo were also due to post results.

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between Oman and Iran. Around 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through it, making it a critical point in global energy markets.

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