Bitcoin Price Hits Extreme Fear as $60K Support Faces Its Biggest Test

Key Insights:

• Bitcoin price sentiment reached historic fear as derivatives pressure dominated trading flows.
• Liquidation positioning favored upside squeezes despite weak market structure.
• On-chain and flow data pointed to early-stage winter risks, not confirmed recovery.

Bitcoin price traded under heavy pressure as sentiment collapsed to historic lows over the weekend, raising questions about near-term stability.

Analysts tracked fear readings, liquidation data, and on-chain signals to assess whether the market was forming a base or sliding deeper into a corrective phase.

The move followed a sharp deterioration in derivatives positioning and risk appetite across major exchanges. Market participants weighed BTC price oversold signals against structural weakness, leaving the outlook finely balanced.

Market Context Behind Bitcoin Price Stress

Bitcoin price entered the week amid conflicting signals as panic indicators clashed with liquidation asymmetry. This tension mattered because prior cycle lows formed when sentiment collapsed faster than price discovery adjusted.

Bitcoin Price and RSI Chart | Source: X

The broader market context reflected exhaustion rather than panic-driven capitulation. Price remained elevated compared with prior cycle bottoms, yet internal momentum weakened as leverage-driven flows dominated activity.

This environment mirrored late-cycle transitions, in which psychology shifted first, followed by prolonged base formation. The focus keyword remained Bitcoin (BTC) price, as traders anchored their decisions on whether downside stability could hold without renewed spot demand.

Sentiment Collapse and Liquidation Imbalance

Renowned market expert Michaël van de Poppe said Bitcoin price sentiment readings flashed conditions historically linked to market bottoms. He observed that the Crypto Fear and Greed Index dropped to 5 over the weekend, then stabilized at 7, marking its lowest recorded level.

Van de Poppe also noted that the daily relative strength index of Bitcoin (BTC) price fell to 15, signaling deeply oversold conditions.

These readings last appeared during the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash, periods that preceded stabilization phases.

He argued that such compression allowed Bitcoin (BTC) price to avoid an immediate breakdown toward 60,000. The implication was that traders were already positioned defensively, reducing marginal selling pressure.

Bitcoin Exchange Liquidation Map | Source: CoinGlass

CoinGlass data reinforced that imbalance through liquidation clustering. Its heatmap showed over $5.45 billion in cumulative short liquidations if price moved roughly 10,000 higher.

On the other hand, it showed $2.4 billion tied to a downside sweep. That skew suggested forced short covering could amplify any upside reaction without fresh catalysts.

Bitcoin Price Structural Weakness and Derivatives Dominance

CryptoQuant data showed Bitcoin price trading below its 50-day moving average near 87,000 and further below the 200-day moving average around 102,000. This gap reflected a repricing phase following the prior rally rather than a trend continuation.

Bitcoin Trend Strength and Structure Index | Source: CryptoQuant

The firm’s Price Z-Score printed at minus 1.6, indicating Bitcoin (BTC) price traded below its statistical mean. Historically, such conditions aligned with selling pressure and trend exhaustion, often leading to extended consolidation rather than rapid rebounds.

CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost highlighted rising sell-side dominance in derivatives markets. Monthly net taker volume turned sharply negative at minus 272 million on Sunday, while Binance’s taker buy-sell ratio slipped below one. That shift showed aggressive sellers overwhelming passive buyers.

This structure mattered because futures volumes outweighed spot flows during the decline. Without stronger spot accumulation, derivatives-led rebounds risked fading quickly.

Winter Risk Signals Emerge Beneath High Prices

XWIN Research Japan framed the current setup as an early winter-phase risk masked by elevated nominal prices. Its analysts argued that winter reflected supply-demand shifts and capital flow behavior, not absolute price levels.

They noted that the Fear and Greed Index reading of 14 already signaled extreme fear despite Bitcoin price trading far above prior winter ranges. In past cycles, sentiment weakened first before price fully adjusted, creating delayed recognition.

Flow data supported that view. In 2024, approximately $10 billion in inflows expanded market capitalization, while in 2025, more than $300 billion in inflows coincided with a declining market cap. That divergence suggested persistent structural selling pressure absorbing new capital.

On-chain profit metrics also weakened. Realized gains declined even as prices stayed elevated, pointing to fading internal momentum rather than accumulation-driven strength.

Whale Cost Basis and Historical Parallels

On-chain data showed that whales holding between 100 and 1,000 Bitcoin traded at a price below their realized cost basis near 69,000. This condition last appeared after an all-time high in June 2022, when price remained below that level for roughly seven months.

That historical parallel mattered because whale realized prices often served as behavioral anchors. Sustained trading below it reflected distribution or forced selling rather than accumulation.

Analyst Jelle added longer-term caution by noting that prior bear market bottoms formed below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. For the current cycle, that level sat near 57,000, with deeper downside scenarios extending toward 42,000 if history repeated.

Bitcoin (BTC) price faced its next inflection as traders watched whether derivatives pressure eased before spot demand returned. A stabilization above recent lows required absorption of selling flows rather than sentiment alone.

Failure to achieve that balance risked confirming a prolonged base-building phase rather than a swift recovery.

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