Bitcoin Technical Analysis February 9: 19% Friday Bounce Holds $69,000 – Bullish Recovery or Trap?

After a steady fall in price from Wednesday onward, a massive recovery took place on Friday. A 19% bounce from a bottom of nearly $60,000 took the price all the way back up above the $69,000 major support. This has held over the weekend, but could the price now fall back down and trap all the bulls?

A weekly close above $69,000 is good news for the bulls

Source: TradingView

The main takeaway on Monday for the $BTC price is that the weekly close was above the major $69,000 horizontal support. That said, this week is possibly going to be a real trial for the bulls to maintain this bounce. After such a huge 19% recovery, the Stochastic RSI indicators are at their limits and will probably be coming back down, signalling failing upside momentum as they do so.

Probably the best scenario for the bulls here is for a period of sideways consolidation. If the price can stay around the major support for the next few days, this would give the momentum indicators time to reset.

If one extends the trendlines out from the falling wedge, it can be seen that the $BTC price is respecting what was the lower falling wedge trendline in particular, and the bulls have not been able to close a 4-hour candle body above this line as yet. If the price does fall below the major support, the other trendline could also play a role and act as support.

An ugly price drop still to come?

Source: TradingView

The daily chart is not good viewing, at least from the perspective of the bulls. A big bounce might have taken place, but will it be enough to stop the rot? The full extension of the measured move out of the bear flag is still waiting below at $53,000. This also aligns with the bottom of the 8-month bull flag in 2024.

One very telling indicator in the chart above is the 200-day SMA. This moving average has only moved upward for the whole of this bull market cycle, except for a slight inclination downward at the end of the aforementioned bull flag. The 200-day SMA is currently bending down at a faster rate. Could this moving average be signalling a really ugly price drop still to come?

Next major support levels

Source: TradingView

The weekly chart gives us a birds eye view of where the price could come down to if the major $69,000 horizontal support does not hold. Firstly, the 200-week SMA is already doing a job of support. The $BTC price did not quite get down to this average, but even so, it does look like the 200-week is going to be a decent prop should the price come down to it again.

Below this at $53,000 is the measured move out of the bear flag, as well as a very good support level in its own right. The other major support levels are marked on the above chart. 

Could the price get down to one of these lower levels? Yes, anything is possible, but if one looks at the two indicators at the bottom of the chart, it becomes clear that a rally cannot be too far off. The weekly Stochastic  RSI has hit bottom, while the RSI has also just moved into oversold territory. The last time it was there (June 2022) it was very close to the bear market bottom.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.